theweatheroutlook

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doctormog
Saturday, November 16, 2013 1:14:32 PM
To be honest Q I would not necessarily expect the pattern to be set at 96hrs out never mind 144. The initial cold surge is still there in some shape or form and could be further upgraded or downgraded. Beyond that the pattern is still uncertain but it looks like high pressure will dominate somewhere in our vicinity (location to be confirmed!)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Beast from the East
Saturday, November 16, 2013 1:45:59 PM

I'm hoping it wont be too cloudy when the easterly gets going so we can get some lovely frosts instead cold and grey misery


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 2:44:27 PM




No upgrades 


I can't believe the cold spell dissapeared in the space of a day. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


temps for the next few days IMBY


9C 8C 4C 3C 4C 4C 4C 4C


A much more seasonal November feel



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I know, but 2 days ago at 144h we had a compeltely amplified greenland high and NErlies into next weekend. I went to bed with a pretty awesome 18z on my mind. Then came along a rally of terrible 0Zs, okay one anomoly I thought, no problem. We then proceeded to have a day of downgrade, after downgrade; culminating in today where snow actually looks unlikely at all outside of scotland or high ground. I know nothing is ever certain, but at 144h you would expect the overall pattern to be pretty well defined. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Said it many times on here 120 is on the edge of FI IMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 2:46:44 PM

To be honest Q I would not necessarily expect the pattern to be set at 96hrs out never mind 144. The initial cold surge is still there in some shape or form and could be further upgraded or downgraded. Beyond that the pattern is still uncertain but it looks like high pressure will dominate somewhere in our vicinity (location to be confirmed!)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Which is good to have it around it can get sucked into a favourable position, if it stays over us it can get colder as time goes on.


No real complaints from me

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:16:47 PM

better GFS so far

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:21:06 PM

12 gfs New delopment in Canada moving east was not even there on 6z


there she is


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0&carte=1


 


 


 

Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:23:01 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111612/gfsnh-0-156.png?12


HP strong over the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:25:38 PM

much less flat ridge slightly more to grenny more energy drops into europe


 



better GFS so far


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

doctormog
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:26:50 PM
There's so little inter-run consistency on the models, especially the GFS at the moment, that I am no more confident about the 12z op run than I have been about previous runs in the mid-term. In fact given the big changes on this run, who knows what the other models and 18z data will show.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:42:58 PM
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:46:10 PM

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111612/gfsnh-1-324.png?12


Colder air from Europe getting back across the UK


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111612/gfsnh-0-324.png?12

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:48:35 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN96-21.GIF?16-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN144-21.GIF?16-17


A cold Easterly from UKMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:50:39 PM
Quantum
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:54:50 PM

Wow that 552 isopleth is much further north on the 12Z, just another few hundred miles needed....

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 4:57:39 PM
Quantum
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:00:02 PM

Holy Bartlett! Has anyone seen the UKMO 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:09:14 PM
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:09:41 PM


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN96-21.GIF?16-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN144-21.GIF?16-17


A cold Easterly from UKMO


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Thats a beauty of a run just a shame its not a bit colder.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:10:34 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png


HP keeps us chilly right to the end of the month

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:10:56 PM

we have time europe is on the cool in a rush on this run




http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN96-21.GIF?16-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN120-21.GIF?16-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UN144-21.GIF?16-17


A cold Easterly from UKMO


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Thats a beauty of a run just a shame its not a bit colder.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Karl Guille
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:18:07 PM

Holy Bartlett! Has anyone seen the UKMO 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Indeed, felt a little tingle myself looking at those charts! Certainly looking like a fairly chilly easterly setting up towards the end of next week after the initial northerly.
St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:19:27 PM


Holy Bartlett! Has anyone seen the UKMO 



Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Bit wasted though as the uppers not good enough.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
Saturday, November 16, 2013 5:23:10 PM



Holy Bartlett! Has anyone seen the UKMO 



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Bit wasted though as the uppers not good enough.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Better than a SWLy

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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