There is a fair chance of snow overnight Weds into Thursday as trough comes down in the cold air in the wake of the depression. Up to 5cms on hills in a broad band from Bath to Norwich.
See fax: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000
No doubt most people are more interested in looking 240 hours ahead and are missing the potential snow event 60 hours away
Originally Posted by: Gusty
This feature shows up quite well on the GFS Hi - Res precipitation charts on Meteociel. The band of precipitation (indicated by moderate snow in places moves southwards to reach the south coast by 7am as a weaker band of wintry precipitation.
The trough is tied up in the coldest air of this spell with thicknesses in the 522-524 dam range at that time. Diurnal influences could make this one of those 'surprise little events' that I few have alluded to.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Yes but that cold is concentrated in the upper part of the atmosphere which isn't too useful. If you look at partial thicknesses you will see that the cold air is actually in NW scotland.
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/11/18/basis12/ukuk/th85/13112018_1812.gif
Values above 130dam make snow very unlikely.
The soundings also concer
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/modtemps/2013/11/18/basis12/03492_13112018_1812.gif
Very much a rain sounding here.
Its one of the reasons why I didn't include the full thicknesses on my list of 'tools'. The partial thickness shows the important layer where the snow falls through, note that the full thickness will take into account how compressed the air is at 500hpa which is immaterial to all intents and purposes.
Actually I think the most likely places for snow is on that occluded front now, and for NE england and E scotland.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.