Snow potential and reports thread Wednesday 20th November· Page 2

doctormog
Advanced Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 9:17:46 PM

There is a fair chance of snow overnight Weds into Thursday as trough comes down in the cold air in the wake of the depression. Up to 5cms on hills in a broad band from Bath to Norwich.
See fax: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000
No doubt most people are more interested in looking 240 hours ahead and are missing the potential snow event 60 hours away

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

The edge if that front could bring some interesting conditions to inland higher parts here too.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Gusty
Advanced Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 9:20:18 PM

#27

There is a fair chance of snow overnight Weds into Thursday as trough comes down in the cold air in the wake of the depression. Up to 5cms on hills in a broad band from Bath to Norwich.

See fax: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

No doubt most people are more interested in looking 240 hours ahead and are missing the potential snow event 60 hours away

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

This feature shows up quite well on the GFS Hi - Res precipitation charts on Meteociel. The band of precipitation (indicated by moderate snow in places moves southwards to reach the south coast by 7am as a weaker band of wintry precipitation.

The trough is tied up in the coldest air of this spell with thicknesses in the 522-524 dam range at that time. Diurnal influences could make this one of those 'surprise little events' that a few have alluded.

Edited by user Monday, November 18, 2013 9:24:32 PM | Reason: Not specified

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

Monday, November 18, 2013 9:27:42 PM

#28

There is a fair chance of snow overnight Weds into Thursday as trough comes down in the cold air in the wake of the depression. Up to 5cms on hills in a broad band from Bath to Norwich.

See fax: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

No doubt most people are more interested in looking 240 hours ahead and are missing the potential snow event 60 hours away

Originally Posted by: Gusty

This feature shows up quite well on the GFS Hi - Res precipitation charts on Meteociel. The band of precipitation (indicated by moderate snow in places moves southwards to reach the south coast by 7am as a weaker band of wintry precipitation.

The trough is tied up in the coldest air of this spell with thicknesses in the 522-524 dam range at that time. Diurnal influences could make this one of those 'surprise little events' that I few have alluded to.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Yes but that cold is concentrated in the upper part of the atmosphere which isn't too useful. If you look at partial thicknesses you will see that the cold air is actually in NW scotland.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/11/18/basis12/ukuk/th85/13112018_1812.gif

Values above 130dam make snow very unlikely.

The soundings also concer

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/modtemps/2013/11/18/basis12/03492_13112018_1812.gif

Very much a rain sounding here.

Its one of the reasons why I didn't include the full thicknesses on my list of 'tools'. The partial thickness shows the important layer where the snow falls through, note that the full thickness will take into account how compressed the air is at 500hpa which is immaterial to all intents and purposes.

Actually I think the most likely places for snow is on that occluded front now, and for NE england and E scotland.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Skreever
Advanced Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 10:04:59 PM

#29

A few flakes here but snow falling and accumulating on roads to the north of the island.

Veteran of winter of 62/63
By Scapa Flow, Orkney

snow 2004
Advanced Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 10:24:19 PM

#30

The temperature is close to freezing now. I wonder what will fall out of the sky if/when the showers arrive. I'm still going for a dusting on cars and grass by morning here.

Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl

Matty H
Advanced Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 10:38:28 PM

#31

There is a fair chance of snow overnight Weds into Thursday as trough comes down in the cold air in the wake of the depression. Up to 5cms on hills in a broad band from Bath to Norwich.
See fax: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000
No doubt most people are more interested in looking 240 hours ahead and are missing the potential snow event 60 hours away

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Not even a mention of anything wintry on the BBC forecast just then. Showed a large warm sector and as that clears it just fizzles out.

Could change I suppose.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html

Gooner
Advanced Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 10:43:33 PM

#32

There is a fair chance of snow overnight Weds into Thursday as trough comes down in the cold air in the wake of the depression. Up to 5cms on hills in a broad band from Bath to Norwich. See fax: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000 No doubt most people are more interested in looking 240 hours ahead and are missing the potential snow event 60 hours away

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Not even a mention of anything wintry on the BBC forecast just then. Showed a large warm sector and as that clears it just fizzles out. Could change I suppose.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

I would be amazed if I saw some snow IMBY ,might be a flake in the air mixed in ppn but I think that would be my lot

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Sage
Member

Monday, November 18, 2013 11:15:33 PM

#33

Snowing falling and lying here in Glasgow at the moment.

doctormog
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 6:57:44 AM

#34

Snow showers overnight have led to a covering on all surfaces in this part of the city at least. There may be a few more in the coming hours (before winter is over 😉 )

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

ghawes
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 7:46:16 AM

#35

Snow showers overnight have led to a covering on all surfaces in this part of the city at least. There may be a few more in the coming hours (before winter is over 😉 )

Originally Posted by: doctormog

We had an air frost last night...which is the equivalent of six inches of snow for you.

Graeme
East Neuk of Fife

doctormog
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 7:53:22 AM

#36

Snow showers overnight have led to a covering on all surfaces in this part of the city at least. There may be a few more in the coming hours (before winter is over 😉 )

Originally Posted by: ghawes

We had an air frost last night...which is the equivalent of six inches of snow for you.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

😂

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Gusty
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 8:33:45 AM

#37

Good to see some of the Scottish members seeing some snow this morning.

Parts of Aberdeenshire are looking pretty.

http://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/webcams/inverurie.asp

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/

Matty H
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 9:05:54 AM

#38

I've changed the topic heading to reflect snow reports as well.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html

overland
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 9:18:25 AM

#39

Surprised to say that we have just had a snow shower here right down on the coast. It did not settle but it's the earliest I've seen snow falling in this part of South Wales since I moved here 22 years ago. Initally there was some hail/graupel mixed in with it but it soon turned all to snow. Lovely to see!

Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 9:18:30 AM

#40

A heavy & sleety wet snow shower moved through here at around 8.30am, leaving a slushy covering on grass & cars. At one point, we had huge flakes falling.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

seaside
Guest

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 9:26:27 AM

#41

Great to see some snow about, a light dusting here and looks stunning, one of my favourite weather types and -3.8 overnight, but I fear there wont be much more looking at the forecasts for at least a couple of weeks. I think tonight will be rain or sleet.

Martin, 500 feet up in Glenmoriston , NW Highlands.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 9:51:09 AM

#42

I can see some snow showers moving south in my direction. They are much more inland than the met suggested.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Quantum
Advanced Member Topic Starter

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 11:06:43 AM

#43

Very marginal, but potential for some snow north of london tommorow

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/11/19/basis06/ukuk/th85/13112018_1906.gif

Partial thicknesses just on the right side of 130dam and a divergence in the isobars will help evap cooling.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.