Models keep trying to build that ridge but it's not happening.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
It will, I don't get why people are not looking at the bigger picture. The 500hpa heights on the NH are particularly good today. Ultimately unless that bearing high gets pushed into canada, sooner or later it will merge with greenland. The PV will drop towards scandanavia and we will get a cold spell. Whats going on in the atlantic, I really don't think is too important. Either the atlantic high will retrogress to greenland or will be buldozed by a scandi low. The key thing here, is the great synoptics being progged for the arctic. I think we just need to be patient to wait for it to translate to cold here. Idk, if this reasoning is okay, but it seems sound to me. If I've made a mistake someone tell me so I don't embarass myself further
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131122/12/npsh500.240.png
Look, today the ECM has the 564 isopleth over northern alaska! Its like the GFS was a few days ago, or perhaps a little better.
Even more prominent on the anomoly chart
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112212/ECH101-240.GIF?22-0
And things are staying consistant, the GFS first picked this up at the 300ish mark, and the ECM has consistantly forecasted this for days. Still could be a major pattern change, but starting to get less likely. of course there will be a much bigger variation at the surface.
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East