What happened? (weather wise)

 LLTNP 105m asl 

That was the winter where I, as a 9-year-old, realised that winter wasn't always full of snow, days off school and icicles. It pretty much broke my heart as a child, a realisation that my old Gran was right in her words - she said the winters I'd experienced up to then were an exception rather than the rule, that some winters we had no snow at all. I didn't believe her of course, but she was right... 

Back to the here and now and the sine wave effect continues unabated in the 6z GEFS:

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Shades of the end of November 1988 in today's charts?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

What happened? (weather wise)

Originally Posted by: glenogle 

Next? Spring

Originally Posted by: WMB 

Yup, a bloody awful winter followed.

Yup. I figured out at an early age that Father Christmas didn't exist, for example and I was too young to really feel the impact when my grandathers died (I was 6 when they died). I adored winter as a child as it meant days of playing with friends, snowball fights and days off school. It meant I could see my dad during the week, something which was fantastic as he worked shifts back then and I wouldn't see him for a week at a time. Bear in mind the earliest winter I can remember was 84/5, which had over a foot of snow here. Ditto 85/6 and we all know about January 87!

87/8 saw no snow and I was quite upset at not getting the usual days off school, snowball fights etc. That's when my gran told me about not all winters seeing snow - I thought it was a blip, a snowless winter couldn't be the norm, surely. Then 88/9 came along and I realised she could well be right and of course as time went on she was proved correct. Feet of snow is unusual, I just happened to be born at the right time to experience several snowfest winters in a row as a child. It's been 18 years since the last time snow reached a foot in depth around here, meaning there are adults now who've never seen what I regarded as normal snowfall as a young child.

It was heartbreaking to realise that my view of winter, namely a snowy, ice-laden wonderland, was based on something which was just a fluke. As a 9-year-old it really hit me hard. Obviously these days it's par for the course and I never expect snow during winter, rather I regard it as a bonus... but then again I am 25 years older now!

I figured out at an early age that Father Christmas didn't exist,

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

What do you mean?

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Heh, I'm making the assumption that there aren't any 6-year-olds on here. The moment when children learn that Father Christmas doesn't exist can be a similarly wrenching experience. Anyway, this is offtopic now and I'll shut up until the 12z models start filtering out!

I'm a bit older than you, so the earliest winter I can remember is 81-82, but I quite agree that, as a kid, those severe 80's winters were the norm rather than the exception to me as the shock when 87-88, then 88-89 and finally 89-90 came along was very great. I wouldn't say I was "heartbroken" about it, but it was one hell of a disappointment.

Still, they were great winters in which to be a kid weren't they? We were very lucky.

I figured out at an early age that Father Christmas didn't exist,

Originally Posted by: Retron 

What do you mean?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Heh, I'm making the assumption that there aren't any 6-year-olds on here.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

And you say that, in the Model Output thread, in the run up to winter

So thats it then. Goodnight and God bless. Andy Woodcock has left the building.

 Roll on Spring

Right there......at the top of the list.

http://i.imgur.com/VPsiBky.gif

From what I've seen so far, no pointers from the upper air analogues for next month.

Tantalising amount of cold weather moving into Europe but pressure distribution shows no sign of helping to move it this way

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Upgrade on the 12zs with that bearing high being further away from canada. Really does look like something is starting to take shape now. 

Although admitadely greenland is being a pain in the ass at the moment. Those stupid lows over greenland are making an easy transition so painfully difficult. 

The Bering high has little bearing on us though and the 12z GFS continues the run-of-the-mill theme for our part of the world - there are no heights to speak of over the Pole (or on our side of the Arctic) and the brief height rise near Bering soon sinks SE'wards into Canada (and hence serves to send a cold pulse SE'wards, which in turn keeps the Atlantic jet invigorated).

Some of the earlier runs yesterday had heights over the arctic for significantly longer, and didn't immediately sink them over canada. The 12z is a big improvement over the 6z though, and is more like the runs yesterday. But yeh, its a very good point, the bearing high sinking over canada is soemthing that has kept me awake at night figurativly speaking. 

The navgem does a better job than the GFS too, the WAA from alaska is back and we just see the high moving into greenland by 180. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2013112312/navgemnh-0-180.png?23-18

I'm bearing some news....it's

BERING

!!!

I'll stick my neck out on this one. I'm not just cold ramping for the sake of it, I can be pretty pessimistic too. But the pattern I am seeing in the arctic is, to me, extremely encouraging and I think will result in a cold spell between the 30th and the 7th. And in fact the GEM likes the idea of speeding up this process and introducing the blocking much sooner. Like retron said, I am worried about the high collapsing and the good heights dissapearing over canada, however this has been consistantly forecasted for 3 days now, and I hope the consistancy across the models indicates that this won't happen. But I will still be watching all the models on the NH view for a while yet. 

Effects becoming apparant even in the UK on the GEM 240

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013112312/gemnh-0-240.png?12

Its similar to the GEM solution, instead of the heights going into the central arctic they move over northern canada and to the west of greenland. 

The 0z GEM ensembles were thoroughly unexciting, so going on that basis the 12z would have been an outlier - you can use the link below to see plots for various parts of the Atlantic and near southern Greenland.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc.php?carte=1

It remains to be seen whether the ensembles (both GEM and EPS) change this evening!

Well the ECM, has really amplified that bearing high. At 240 it is sitting above northern canada, and there is more WAA at alaska. Very encouraging signs imo.