Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday November 23rd 2013.
All models show little change tonight with High pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK with just variations on cloud amounts day to day which also bears an influence over how much frost and fog is allowed to form overnight. In addition the weather becomes a little more breezy with more cloud streaming SE across the UK with even a little rain for a time across the North and East.
GFS tonight shows High pressure never far away from the South of the UK with day to day variations on the amounts of cloud and wind across the UK. The North remains favoured for what there is of rainfall over the period with very little reaching the SW.
UKMO closes it's run with High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic with winds blowing down from the NW, quite lightly overall but a little stronger over far Northern and Eastern areas where it may feel rather cold at times in the NW flow.
GEM tonight shows a similar pattern to the other models with High Pressure close to Southern Britain maintaining largely dry and benign conditions with winds predominating from a NW direction, light in the South and moderate further North. Frost and fog looks quite limited due to cloud cover.
NAVGEM shows High pressure over Biscay this time next week with a relatively mild and cloudy Westerly flow over the UK with Northern areas in particular at risk of some rain.
ECM towards the end of its run shows High pressure relaxing South over France as a trough of Low pressure moves in towards the West with freshening SW winds and rain moving East over Britain on Day 10.
The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a warm outlier tonight through it's second half. There is a huge range between the members with some rain highlighted to develop over Northern areas especially later.
The Jet Stream tonight shows an arching flow around areas well North of the UK and down into Europe as High pressure near the UK keeps in control, especially over Southern Britain.
In Summary tonight I can see little scope for anything very wintry to develop from any charts I have seen tonight. So with High pressure close by, often to the SW the weather is left to alternate between cold and fresh days following mist and fog or milder cloudy weather with temperatures close to average. Currently I feel the latter has more chance of gaining the upper hand over UK weather for some considerable time to come.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset