Well the ECM, has really amplified that bearing high. At 240 it is sitting above northern canada, and there is more WAA at alaska. Very encouraging signs imo. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Bering? although to be honest I'm not sure if it has much direct bearing on our weather.

The outlook looks a bit less mild in the medium to long term but any cold or wintry options are still in the minority. Still pretty average.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I tried on the previous page too, along with someone else before that Doc.....the phrase "There's none so blind as those that can't see" comes to mind

Well the ECM, has really amplified that bearing high. At 240 it is sitting above northern canada, and there is more WAA at alaska. Very encouraging signs imo. 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Bering? although to be honest I'm not sure if it has much direct bearing on our weather.

The outlook looks a bit less mild in the medium to long term but any cold or wintry options are still in the minority. Still pretty average.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I have to agree.  I have read Quantum's optimistic (quasi-ramping...) posts and gone off to look at the charts but don't see enough to be enthusiastic.  When you bear in mind (is 'bear' and any variant the word of the day? ) that even Greenland can be too far away to guarantee that the British Isles is on the cold side of the polar front, Bering/Canada might as well be another planet.

The best I can see coming from the 12z ECM evolution is a period of cold zonality, assuming the PV moves out of Greenland towards Scandi. 

There's certainly a very marked cold front coming SE at T+240 but will it still be there in 12 hours time, I wonder?  It will be interesting to see how the ensemble mean looks in terms of support for the Op evolution.

There's barely any other word to use

a significant ecm 12z ens approaches. will the trend to develop a damper mild cluster around the 5th/7th to go with the cold set thats been there for a while continue. if it does then thats the route with momentum and i suspect the colder set will represent the chance of a toppler at best and probably begin to wane. if the cold cluster take centre stage then i suspect some of you may end up having to apologise to quantum !

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday November 23rd 2013.

All models show little change tonight with High pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK with just variations on cloud amounts day to day which also bears an influence over how much frost and fog is allowed to form overnight. In addition the weather becomes a little more breezy with more cloud streaming SE across the UK with even a little rain for a time across the North and East.

GFS tonight shows High pressure never far away from the South of the UK with day to day variations on the amounts of cloud and wind across the UK. The North remains favoured for what there is of rainfall over the period with very little reaching the SW.

UKMO closes it's run with High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic with winds blowing down from the NW, quite lightly overall but a little stronger over far Northern and Eastern areas where it may feel rather cold at times in the NW flow.

GEM tonight shows a similar pattern to the other models with High Pressure close to Southern Britain maintaining largely dry and benign conditions with winds predominating from a NW direction, light in the South and moderate further North. Frost and fog looks quite limited due to cloud cover.

NAVGEM shows High pressure over Biscay this time next week with a relatively mild and cloudy Westerly flow over the UK with Northern areas in particular at risk of some rain.

ECM towards the end of its run shows High pressure relaxing South over France as a trough of Low pressure moves in towards the West with freshening SW winds and rain moving East over Britain on Day 10.

The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a warm outlier tonight through it's second half. There is a huge range between the members with some rain highlighted to develop over Northern areas especially later.

The Jet Stream tonight shows an arching flow around areas well North of the UK and down into Europe as High pressure near the UK  keeps in control, especially over Southern Britain.

In Summary tonight I can see little scope for anything very wintry to develop from any charts I have seen tonight. So with High pressure close by, often to the SW the weather is left to alternate between cold and fresh days following mist and fog or milder cloudy weather with temperatures close to average. Currently I feel the latter has more chance of gaining the upper hand over UK weather for some considerable time to come. 

The balance of energy in the jet between the northern and southern arms will be critical to the positioning of high pressure across/close to the UK.

Unfortunately, it will take a sliding trough to introduce clearer air again after the clag arrives from the Atlantic soon, and such a feature has been dropped from the output for next week, leaving us at the mercy of the tropical maritime air being thrown around and across the high.

There's not much from a chart-watching perspective to see in the op runs tonight, and there won't be until if and when a ridge into the Arctic manages to gain more of a foothold and displace/split the PV to an appreciable extent. Perhaps we'll get lucky and see at least a brief version of that early in December, but at the moment I'm mostly finding comfort in the fact that it's 23rd November and not 23rd December 

bering mind people, that I am not doing anything any more crazy than people that look for stratospheric warming. On the contry, I am pointing to something very visibly shown on the models. And the models themselves, have to take into account weather across the globe to make accurate predictions; I would say that high pressure incursions even on the wrong side are significant. And upper air patterns are significantly less prone to model variations than what is going on at the surface. Of course much could still go wrong, but cold blasts are never really shown past 240h on the charts anyway, so I would only expect something to become plainly visible in subsequent days. All I am pointing out is a general feature, that would make northern blocking much more probable than usual. Of course, even if I do turn out to be right; it doesn't mean this reasoning necessarily is - but I will still be interested to see what happens.  

Oh and here is the 12Z JMA.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2013112312/JN192-21.GIF?23-12

* Picks up Model Output thread, and gives it a good shake *....is it broken? He wonders...

any chance you could give the GFS a good shake ?  The far reaches of the 18z are as shocking as could possibly be 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Quite a few hinting at something colder...............................hinting

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-1-1-276.png?18

P1 being a colder option

Well if my theory is correct I would expect to begin to see cold incursions over the UK start to become visible at the 192-240 range in the next couple of days. Plenty of cold options (and mild options) on the ECM ensembles.   

He seems to be doing a decent job of keeping the cogs oiled in here at the moment.
As per form, most of the NWP today isn't inspiring much interest from anyone of any particular persuasion.

Offers an idea or an analysis, which then gets either challenged or supported. Can't see how you can have a Model Output Discussion otherwise.

Doesn't deserve a "nothing useful" verdict from a moderator imo, never mind a  .

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Thats a hell of a spread at the end of the month

Yes. The way the Operational suddenly veers from being a cold outlier at 240 hrs to a warm outlier a few days later suggests anything is possible at that stage, particularly with a few ensemble members suddenly dipping below the minus 10 line by the end of the spaghetti.

That told him

Anyway, as highlighted by Marcus the extreme scatter in mid-term means that there is potential for most things at that point so anyone looking for any particular weather type should not be discouraged this morning IMO

One thing that's a little more prevalent on the mid to long range output from ECM and GFS this morning is for the UK HP to gradually sink southwards. Little bit of a change from HP constantly ambling over us and ridging North.

Could be a sign the jet is sinking South, which if allied to a change in pressure up over the Artic could be a good thing. Or (as shown on GFS Op down South) it could just mean fairly mild zonality kicking in.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112406/gfsnh-0-240.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112406/gfsnh-0-324.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112406/gfsnh-0-384.png?6

GFS continues to have the UK flirt with something cooler/colder

Couple of those look like they should lead to slightly more than a 2 day affair but don't manage it.

Presumably will be one of the colder runs that have been in the ens lately but nice looking charts

Yet I turned out right about that one 

I'd take that if it was the final offer on the table