Good morning folks. Here is my account of how the weather models are shaping up on the next couple weeks prospects taken using the data from the midnight outputs on Tuesday November 27th 2013.
All models show a period of very slow changes in the weather over the UK for the next week or so. High pressure remains stubbornly close to SW England and the weather shows a milder and moister West flow across the UK now with widepread anticyclonic gloom and hill mist and drizzle at times. This weather will likely persist for the next 36 hours or so before brighter and fresher conditions chase the low cloud and murk away on Friday with sunshine and scattered showers wintry on hills in the North briefly. By the second half of the weekend the weather retrns milder and cloudy again as milder and moist air again rounds the Northern periphery of the High still close to the SW and down over the UK. The start of next week looks relatively mild and benign as the High finally starts to relax away SE while maintaining a UK ridge which maintains dry and quiet weather for most.
GFS then shows temporary injections of more unsettled weather starting midweek next week firstly over the North, extending to the South too at times. However, any one weather type remains short-lived as milder air quickly replaces any colder weather and there will be rain at times in the second half of the run although amounts in the South look small on this operational run as High pressure remains fairly close towards the SW or South for much of the time.
UKMO shows High pressure over the mid Alantic with a ridge all the way across the UK to Germany next Tuesday. The quiet and benign weather will still be well established next Tuesday with only a slight increase in the Westerly breeze across the North with perhaps a little light rain in the far North and NW. Temperatures would be relatively mild under relatively cloudy skies.
GEM today holds quiet and benign conditions right out to the end of next week now as High pressure clings on and only briefly looks like giving way at the very end of next week to a spell of rather colder and blustery NW winds with rain at times and some snow showers for a time on Northern and Eastern high ground before the likelihood of mild and damp weather returns to all over next weekend.
NAVGEM closes it's run with a slow deterioration in conditions through the middle of next week as weakening troughs move SE down over Britain with a little rain with the prospect of a phase of more active fronts and wind later in the week but never looking overly cold at any point.
ECM this morning shows fine weather still at the midweek point as High pressure clings on over Britain before a pulse of energy pushes a band of rain and colder weather SE over all areas late in the week before conditions gradually turn less cold but still unsettled in the North in time for the weekend while the South would probably become dry and rather cloudy again and less cold to end the run as High pressure is close by to the South.
The GFS Ensembles continue to show nothing threateningly cold and wintry over the next few weeks. True, there is a period when below average uppers look likely later next week but coming from the NW things could well become modified at the surface by the North Atlantic when crossing the UK to give no more than the threat of wintry showers for a time over Northern hills. There is then strong support for even this pattern to flatten out later as Westerly winds look favoured to take hold with rain at times, chiefly in the North and temperatures well up to average.
The Jet Stream flow remains stubbornly positioned to keep cold weather away from the UK for the reliable future with the main core of the flow well North of the UK. Later next week it does show signs of moving South towards crossing the UK rather than locations to the North but it's orientation remains poor for any sustained cold outbreaks with just transitory NW'lies the only likelihood of anything below average later next week.
In Summary the weather remains stubbornly locked into a High pressure based Winter pattern which provides days of anticyclonic gloom and benign weather. As the High shuffles about over the next 7 days there is some opportunity for clearer and cleaner air to flood South towards the weekend before this becomes displaced by Sunday by more of our current weather pattern lasting into the middle of next week. As on previous runs there is still evidence of a change to colder and more unsettled weather from the end of next week but this seems a lifetime away and if anything as been reined back this morning in it's spread and influence on this morning's output to just bring a day or two of colder air before the Atlantic bandwagon NW of the British Isles flattens the pattern to return milder air with rain at times, chiefly in the North.
Originally Posted by: Matty H