We are not that excited about 12z GFS, it poses that by Friday- Only Scotland and NE to Eastern England will be in the North NW Arctic wind plunge and Cold wintry Weather, and it improves the Extent and spread of Arctic Northwest and Northerly for Thursday day from Midday right to during whoe of Thursday Night that has many in UK in the direct plunge and band of rain with Snow in North NW and Central to NE and down E Central UK-all way to South and SE England, we are likely to get lot of Winter Showers, with low ground in the South also may be cold for snow.
The high pressure by Friday builds from the West and SW UK, and the Low Pressure plus North then WNW winds reduced of snow or sleet rain showers for much of Northern And the Eastern and NE side.
West and South parts Friday see pressure rise and less risk of showers for then as well as temps. Recover a bit.
By Saturday Finecold and dry across all of UK, turning less cold but some moderate frost Friday and Saturday night likely, good thing is at least we will have crisp sunny weather by Friday and Saturday.
Newfoundland Deep Low and E Canada PV Low on Thursday through to Saturday gradually merge up and affect NW mid N Atlantic heading to South SW Central Greenland, and the Azores High builds over UK at same time - it moves back in to us from our West SW side of Eastern Central N Atlantic.
What was the area called just West of Europe- That is where the high move East NE for UK.
The NNW Low Pressure Storm looks strong but the GFS pushes it and the Azores High behind it, and NE Europe looks like getting our Thursday Arctic plunge- it looks very cold, but it heads East and NE via North Sea and the SW Norwegian/ Far NE Atlantic Sea.
That is what I see right now via GFS 12z.
Don't be too impressed about it, we had a upgrade at 06z, the UKMO 00z and ECMWF 00z Output Earlier today was better than this GFS12z, as we know it appears they enjoy teasing us in the mornings, and ECMWF was also as much in line with 06z GFS as was GFS, and we should just relax, as yesterday's early evening GFS looks and was a bit worse but has shown some degree of a colder period Thursday 5th December plus a.m. From p.m. Night of Thursday- it might bring a cold front with rain turning snowy and it may start earlier in Central and N plus the East NE UK than in London!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.