In spite of the collapse, still a lot of cold air around

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfs-1-144.png?6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Bitter brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.png

since the high is now slightly better positioned, perhaps we will have a better FI

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

A very cold morning , these sort of temps were few and far between IMBY lasy Winter

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

Followed by a cold day

There is a short window of opportunity on Fri into Fri night as it stands for copious lake-effect snowfall right down the east coast - maybe away from the immediate coastal strip

cold air now embedded in central europe, so if we do get an easterly later, it may be cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfs-1-162.png?6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

Next weekend is shaping up to be very cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfsnh-0-264.png?6

Now picking up a cold flow from Europe

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120106/gfsnh-1-264.png?6

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn27617.png

Not the favourite outcome yet but baby steps and all that, i just wonder if that cold pool to our east could have our name on it, The troughing to the south of Greenland could do with being more negatively tilted but it looks like we are still going to get an undercut on this run.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2839/gfsnh-0-228_ppi3.png

It's good to see GFS back to showing a proper northerly again. With ECM steady in showing a sub-minus 10 event at the 850hPa level for many of us, it's not a bad thing to be looking at to start December IMO 

GFS shows snow showers streaming inland for the best part of a whole day, but they're confined to a narrow strip through N. Wales and central parts of the UK.

ECM keeps the unstable northerly airflow going for about 24 hours longer than GFS, so the showers would keep on coming for longer too.

Beyond that, the PV energy looks certain to drift into the Atlantic and generate some activity there, but at the same time blocking looks like edging west through Scandinavia as the Scandi trough sinks south to prop it up, which is always of some interest when we have a UK high over here.

The GFS 00z op run showed the Atlantic ramping up to maximum, beating off the Scandi block, with only wafts of continental air getting caught up in the flow - milder days dominate FI, though nothing exceptional despite the high 850's involved.

The ECM 00z op run becomes more complex than that, as rather than bundling together into one region of furious activity, the Atlantic energy is split apart, with a fair bit dropping south to the Azores while the rest scoots off to Siberia. As the Scandi trough sinks through eastern parts of Europe, blocking to the NE has only one way to go - west through Scandinavia. The day 10 chart shows a bowling ball of cold to our east with good trough support beneath... but I can't see enough amplification in the upstream ridge to prevent the cold from being deflected SW through France as the UK high barely shifts.

Interesting times, whatever we end up with 

Interesting couple of days coming up at the end of the working week - nice to see GFS gradually coming back round, albeit think it's still a little quicker collapsing everything east?

Longer term and both ECM and GFS look to build HP to our East, albeit nothing too interesting comes of it at the moment. Deep in GFS FI there's a suggestion of some undercutting and the high tilting enough to draw in what I'd assume would by then be low level cold.

One things that noticeable is a different take on what it happening to our North with the PV seemingly destined to back Westwards after it's brief stay to our North East. Certainly favours some kind of scandi block but could be wrong of course given how erratic the GFS in particular has been when faced with the current pattern

Edit: really should look at what run I'm commenting on Still largely valid for the 6z, which has increased the chances of some colder air from the East.

Beaten to it, we need the troughing to dig further south to get as proper brutal Easterly but lets get the undercut first and worry about the details later, stonking run!!!!

is there enough on this cf to replicate the thundersnow event of the mid noughties ?  the uppers following are extremely low for a northerly.

not posted for a while but good to see the extended ens (ecm and naefs) have called this right from a fortnight ago. the scandi/sceuro blocking that will follow this northerly look set to stick around beyond mid month at least. main question is how far north these heigts can get and if we can dig some energy to our south to advect the deep cold uppers back west. what a start to winter model watching.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

Has CFS fallen down at the last minute as a result of sending too much energy NE like GFS?

Or will it be having the last laugh?

A week ago, it was showing signs of higher than normal pressure to our NE, so it's really shifted ever since the models decided that the PV energy would move back into the Atlantic. This represents a typical 'throw it all NE' kind of behavioural trait, which GFS has also demonstrated very clearly.

That doesn't mean it will be wrong, but it does seem like GFS and CFS nearly always end up correcting to send more energy SE, usually meaning a move towards ECM and UKMO.

Trying to look for something in the long term. It appears the bearing high is trying to reform mid december abeilt on the siberian side this time (so possible scandi blocks as we head towards xmas?). But the middle of december itself still looks pretty zonal, although probably HP dominated something thats akin to blasphemy in here. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/bom/runs/2013120100/bomnh-0-240.png?00

i did say a couple of days ago

ukmo shift to ecm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=144&nh=1&archive=0

only a few members zonal on 0z now all almost gone 6zgfs plays catch up

no polar bears Brian please