Good morning. Here is the latest Model Analysis report taken from www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk for today Monday December 2nd 3013.
All models show High pressure positioned over England with flat calm conditions for many under largely cloudy skies. This weather type with only minor local variations continues through until Wednesday. The North will see a band of patchy rain move South through tomorrow and Wednesday as a cold front slips South. This then reaches the South late in the day before another front crosses South over the UK on Thursday bringing a notable drop in temperature, occasional wintry showers of sleet or snow for a time in the far North and East while Southern and Western areas become clear and cold with frost at night but sunshine by day to start off next weekend.
GFS then takes High pressure away SE next week with cloudy and milder air being pumped up across all areas from the South and later the SW. Temperatures would exceed normal for all with time but it might take rather longer for this to happen in the SE early next week. Rain at times would develop for a while as fronts moved NE in the flow. Later in the run High pressure then migrates back NW over Europe to the UK bringing yet another spell of quiet and benign, rather cloudy conditions and with warm uppers we rely on an inversion to set up not to transfer very mild conditions down to the surface should it evolve as shown.
UKMO shows next Sunday as a milder and breezy day across the North as winds back WSW with a front carrying cloud and a little rain East through the day. In the South quieter conditions remain and with High pressure close to or over the area then dry and potentially bright weather continues with some overnight frost and fog possibilities look more likely.
GEM today shows High pressure receding South early next week into Southern Europe allowing milder SW winds to become established over all areas. With a bank of deep Low pressure stretching West to East to the NW of the UK rain at times would be inevitable, heaviest in the NW with strong winds reaching gale foce too at times. Temperatures would be close to average at worst and the SE may become rather mild at times.
NAVGEM too shows High pressure receding SE early next week with milder SW then Southerly air affecting the UK, probably rather cloudy and benign again with any frost and fog risk at first in the SE gradually becoming less evident with time.
ECM today holds a spark of interest as it bucks the trend from the other operationals in as much as it rises pressure over NE Europe next week which absorbs the High near to SE Britain into a ridge which would result in a much increased risk of the weather staying cold, certainly over the South with lower temperatures extending North through the week. With a continental feed of air across the South sunny skies by day seem more possible but with the usual caveats of widespread night frosts and freezing fog patches which could become very stubborn and slow to clear over England and Wales with time. It should remain dry though.
The GFS Ensembles are dreadful if it's cold your looking for with an almost blanket approach to milder conditions for all next week with High pressure to the SE. There are varying degrees to what influence that High pressure may have on conditions across the South and SE as some members show rain at times for all but if the High stays closer to the SE then things could stay rather dry with just occasional rain here with the majority of rainfall and strong winds likely in the North and West.
The Jet Stream shows the flow moving SE down the North Sea later this week moving East before the trend this morning is for a new arm to move NE across the Atlantic and over the UK in the second half of the run then moving on NE towards Scandinavia over the top of High pressure over Europe.
In Summary today it looks more likely than not that the end of the week's cold snap will be a blink and miss it affair with little significance away from the far North and NE where some snowfall in the form of showers may occur for a time. High pressure then builds back for a time next weekend before most output wants to shift it SE into mainland Europe bringing mild and changeable conditions across the UK with strong winds and rain at times, heaviest and most frequent towards the North and West. Then we have the 'ECM' model which throws a spanner in the works by building High pressure strongly over NE Europe next week which if evolved would totally change the complexion of conditions over the UK next week with frost and freezing fog patches along with brighter dry days much more likely next week with below average temperatures. However, it looks a little isolated and needs support from it's ensemble members and future runs to ascertain this as a trend to watch through the coming days.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset