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eastcoaster
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:19:29 PM
Not one ensemble member going for a cold Easterly in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres 
Gooner
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:21:39 PM


Sorry, but ECM has not been infallible so far this Autumn/very early winter. I don't think I or anybody else would get too excited at a Scandi high at 216hrs and 240hrs.


The simple fact is, people are desperately looking for straws to clutch at in the models, but as it stands at the moment, there is very little joy for those wanting to see a cold and seasonal December.


Quite the opposite in fact. Apart from the briefest of brief northerlies this week, it really does look mild all the way out to AT LEAST the middle of December - beyond that - who knows....and as always, things can flip, but as I've said many times before, once a Euro high or even a mid-latitude high sets up, they can prove very stubborn beasts to shift.


Average to above average temperatures this month is the sensible call at the moment - and as Matty H says - those who prefer that type of weather are breathing a sigh of relief that this week's "northerly blast" is more of a fart.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


??


There is only one day where GFS has temps in double digits, the rest for the majority of people are 6-8c lower for some , I would say that is seasonal, I wouldn't call it mild

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:23:31 PM

Not one ensemble member going for a cold Easterly in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 


Apart from the ones that do, that is!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=6&mode=0&carte=


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=3&mode=0&carte=

Leysdown, north Kent
marting
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:23:36 PM

Building evidence for the Scandi/Russian high with GEM joining that train of thought tonight. With the UKMO aiming that way, will be interesting to see if it developes.


Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gooner
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:23:50 PM

[quote=eastcoaster;555467]Not one ensemble member going for a cold Easterly in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres[/quote]


How can you tell that from there??


 


I would look again

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:25:27 PM


Not one ensemble member going for a cold Easterly in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Apart from the ones that do, that is!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=6&mode=0&carte=


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=3&mode=0&carte=


Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 


and another


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-372.png?12


And another with a cold SEly flow


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-0-384.png?12


And another


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-13-1-336.png?12


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-13-0-336.png?12


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:33:08 PM

You always make me feel happy Marcus




Not one ensemble member going for a cold Easterly in the next couple of weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Apart from the ones that do, that is!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=6&mode=0&carte=


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=3&mode=0&carte=


Originally Posted by: Retron 


and another


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-372.png?12


And another with a cold SEly flow


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-2-0-384.png?12


Originally Posted by: eastcoaster 

Gooner
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:33:37 PM


Building evidence for the Scandi/Russian high with GEM joining that train of thought tonight. With the UKMO aiming that way, will be interesting to see if it developes.


Martin


Originally Posted by: marting 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013120212/gemnh-0-240.png?12


worth keeping an eye on

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


jan1987blizzard
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:58:32 PM

Powerhouse Easterly alert!!!!!


 


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/188/ECH1-240_mds0.GIF


 


JMA, ECM and GEM now.

Notty
Monday, December 2, 2013 6:58:53 PM

No comment on the 12z ECM ? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Stormchaser
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:05:03 PM

At times like this, I reckon we'd have some fun if there was a 'no NE bias' version of the GFS op run 


The connection between the PV moving from Siberia to Canada and substantial height rises to our E the NE seems to be very strong this time around, based on the model signals.


It's encouraging to see the high pressure around Siberia joining in the fun on the GFS 12z op run, with the trend being to relegate nearly all of the energy to the Canada/Greenland area, allowing higher heights to nose poleward via Scandinavia and Siberia.


Now... who remembers our troubles last December? 


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2012/archivesnh-2012-12-14-0-0.png


...but there's a key difference to where GFS ends up:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120212/gfsnh-0-384.png?12




GFS shows the PV energy split between Canada/Greenland and Siberia, which offers good easterly potential for us - via Scandi HP building north - than the 2012 situation saw the PV was only sort-of split (though GFS isn't much more pronounced tonight, but this is 16 days away we're talking about) and with the PV energy split between our side of the pole and the opposite side. This placed the main blocking further to our east, while the corresponding ridge across Greenland from the East U.S. Coast only served to scupper any attempts at warm air advection to sustain ridges from that Siberian block.


So... at this stage, we're seeing greater potential for some cold from the east than we had a year ago. 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120212/ECH1-240.GIF?02-0


ECM is heading the right way and more quickly than GFS, which is what many will have expected to see 



If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gooner
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:10:57 PM

The Easterly trend continues from ECM , yes still in FI but the trend is there at least

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Karl Guille
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:14:27 PM
Well, plenty of 'Jam tomorrow' on offer this evening but I'm not complaining as even if the northerly had been more potent down south it would have been wasted on me TBH! Nice to see ECM maintain the theme and be joined by GEM and JMA (plus a few GFS runs in the ensembles)!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
nouska
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:15:01 PM
Whether there is potential down the line remains to be seen but one thing currently stands out - the amazing spillage of arctic air into the mid latitudes - across continents and at such an early stage in winter.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7466/ECH0-96_man8.GIF 

This is not really what the science based model outlook was indicating just a few weeks ago, all indicators were looking at a tight and discrete vortex with enough vorticity to keep the cold bottled up in the arctic.
Polar Low
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:15:21 PM

gfs good hold of heights to our n/e


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Helsinki_ens.png


 

Phil G
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:33:08 PM
Like the last few years, do have that feeling it could be a good Winter again (for those that want cold).
With easterlies now being shown on more than one model, suspect we may be onto something.
I know this is the last frame from GFS but that's a huge block out east and be surprised if anything broke through. Detail will change as we get nearer, but it's the size of the block that's being pronged which has caught my eye.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png 

polarwind
Monday, December 2, 2013 7:56:14 PM

Whether there is potential down the line remains to be seen but one thing currently stands out - the amazing spillage of arctic air into the mid latitudes - across continents and at such an early stage in winter.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7466/ECH0-96_man8.GIF

This is not really what the science based model outlook was indicating just a few weeks ago, all indicators were looking at a tight and discrete vortex with enough vorticity to keep the cold bottled up in the arctic.

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Interessting observation and comparison. I posted here a couple of weeks ago, or so, that I thought that there had been a game change in the last 3/4 years. What we learned over the last 30 years is mostly useful for the given forcings and balances of that time period. Something else has come into the equation now, and mostly, it isn't anthropological. Looking at this another way, the last 30 years has been abnormal and we are now reverting to the forcings and balances that were normal (average?) say 40 years ago.


And CO2 will have played a smaller role in this than the natural forcings.


I think forecasters will have to learn fast, if they don't want to be caught out.


 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
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Dave,Derby
GIBBY
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:12:33 PM

Hi everyone. Here's tonight's report from the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 3rd 2013.


All models tonight show High pressure over Southern Britain slipping South towards midweek as a cold front slips slowly South  over the North tomorrow and the South too by midweek with a little rain. Behind it comes clearer air for a time before another cold front brings a more marked drop in temperature especially over Northern and Eastern parts when some wintry showers could occur later on Thursday and Friday with some snowfall over Scotland. The drier air over the South and West then is shown to extend to all areas at the weekend as High pressure builds across Southern Britain for a time before beginning to decline SE early next week.


GFS tonight shows mild SW winds taking hold slowly next week as High pressure continues to feed away SE. Innitially dry and rather cloudy weather will be likely before Low pressure gradually moves in closer to Western and NW areas bringing cloud and rain in on occasions with strong winds at times. Winds back more South or SE late in the run and with pressure rising to the NE things may begin to turn rather colder after the term of the run.


UKMO closes it's run on Sunday with High pressure having moved away to the SE with a milder SW flow covering all areas with mild and rather cloudy weather likely to affect most parts early next week clearing the remains of the weekend chill away from the SE.


GEM tonight shows High pressure over Northern France slipping SE then North towards Scandinavia late in the run. After some milder weather with a fresh Southerly flow and maybe a little rain in the West and NW rather colder air develops from the SE as winds back towards East around risen pressure over Scandinavia.


NAVGEM tonight shows High pressure to the SE with a milder SW flow becoming established across the UK early next week with cloud and a little rain in the NW at times.


ECM again tonight shows pressure rising strongly over Scandinavia by the middle of next week with cold air never really leaving the South where frost and fog patches could continue well into next week. The Northwest will see the milder conditions while winds backing ESE by the middle of next week would likely feed cold continental air NW across the South with clearer skies and further frost likely. 


The GFS Ensembles show a one day colder blip before a spell of milder weather with SW winds is shown by many members. Things then do trend slightly colder as we move into next week. Rainfall remains in short supply across Southern Britain.


The Jet Stream shows the flow driving SE down the North Sea later in the week ahead of a realignment of the flow to run NE across the Atlantic and over the UK later in the period. 


In Summary tonight all models show a cold snap lasting a day or so giving way to a milder period with SW winds and a little rain, most likely towards the North and West early next week. The next phase of interest looks like developing later next week as there are some signs of pressure wanting to rise over Scandinavia and if this trend develops then we may have to start looking East for a cold spell later next week. The one thing of note it looks highly unlikely that there will be any significant rain in the next two weeks across Southern or Eastern Britain.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
nouska
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:13:35 PM


Whether there is potential down the line remains to be seen but one thing currently stands out - the amazing spillage of arctic air into the mid latitudes - across continents and at such an early stage in winter.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7466/ECH0-96_man8.GIF

This is not really what the science based model outlook was indicating just a few weeks ago, all indicators were looking at a tight and discrete vortex with enough vorticity to keep the cold bottled up in the arctic.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Interessting observation and comparison. I posted here a couple of weeks ago, or so, that I thought that there had been a game change in the last 3/4 years. What we learned over the last 30 years is mostly useful for the given forcings and balances of that time period. Something else has come into the equation now, and mostly, it isn't anthropological. Looking at this another way, the last 30 years has been abnormal and we are now reverting to the forcings and balances that were normal (average?) say 40 years ago.


And CO2 will have played a smaller role in this than the natural forcings.


I think forecasters will have to learn fast, if they don't want to be caught out.


 


Originally Posted by: nouska 


Yes, agreed. At the end of the last model thread I posted a pdf on the DECIDER weather type prediction system that is based on cliper of the last fifty years. A combination of model volatility and patterns not developing as persistence seem to be a problem of late.

cowman
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:25:35 PM

Whether there is potential down the line remains to be seen but one thing currently stands out - the amazing spillage of arctic air into the mid latitudes - across continents and at such an early stage in winter.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7466/ECH0-96_man8.GIF

This is not really what the science based model outlook was indicating just a few weeks ago, all indicators were looking at a tight and discrete vortex with enough vorticity to keep the cold bottled up in the arctic.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Interessting observation and comparison. I posted here a couple of weeks ago, or so, that I thought that there had been a game change in the last 3/4 years. What we learned over the last 30 years is mostly useful for the given forcings and balances of that time period. Something else has come into the equation now, and mostly, it isn't anthropological. Looking at this another way, the last 30 years has been abnormal and we are now reverting to the forcings and balances that were normal (average?) say 40 years ago.


And CO2 will have played a smaller role in this than the natural forcings.


I think forecasters will have to learn fast, if they don't want to be caught out.


 

Originally Posted by: nouska 



Steve murr seems to think the same from what I read from some of his post's.
Stormchaser
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:35:42 PM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0


Enjoying GEM tonight 


Once the Scandi energy is trapped in place, it only seems to take a slight dig of Atlantic energy SE, creating a more vertical but my no means perfect WAA, to inflate heights to our NE and bring about an easterly as the cold pool left behind by the northerly advances in our direction.




Here's hoping GFS starts trapping the Scandi energy as well soon - it's a massive help in the grand scheme of things.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Chiltern Blizzard
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:43:44 PM


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0


Enjoying GEM tonight 


Once the Scandi energy is trapped in place, it only seems to take a slight dig of Atlantic energy SE, creating a more vertical but my no means perfect WAA, to inflate heights to our NE and bring about an easterly as the cold pool left behind by the northerly advances in our direction.




Here's hoping GFS starts trapping the Scandi energy as well soon - it's a massive help in the grand scheme of things.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


A proper long-fetch easterly developing at day 10..... isobars trace to back to Manchuria!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
White Meadows
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:47:41 PM
NDJF
Monday, December 2, 2013 8:52:46 PM



http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0


Enjoying GEM tonight 


Once the Scandi energy is trapped in place, it only seems to take a slight dig of Atlantic energy SE, creating a more vertical but my no means perfect WAA, to inflate heights to our NE and bring about an easterly as the cold pool left behind by the northerly advances in our direction.




Here's hoping GFS starts trapping the Scandi energy as well soon - it's a massive help in the grand scheme of things.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


A proper long-fetch easterly developing at day 10..... isobars trace to back to Manchuria!


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


in the age of the weather forum has anyone ever seen or identified a trend(cold bias) BEFORE the met office. Having read the monthly predication today it lines us up for a very bland and benign few weeks. Too many contradictions across the forums over recent weeks.

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