LOL

Its funny how you didnt reply to my post from the 12z when most of the temps were 6-8c, glad to see it isn't just me cherry picking

I'm sure it'll all be nice and cold next week onwards for at least 3 weeks.

Upgrade on the 18z GEFS, The mean has the Atlantic troughing digging further south and resultant scandi ridge further North and West.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-240.png?18

Control has it a little different

Talk of mild is geting tiresome 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=294&y=103&ext=1&run=18&runpara=0

GFS not fully updated yet

Do some even bother to look at ground temps, or just look at the 850 temp see yellow and assume mild 

It's not in the south so wont be much talk about it, but is a chance of some very severe winds,costal flooding and snow for parts of Scotland and along the East coast 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120212/ECM1-72.GIF?02-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120218/gfs-0-66.png?18

Stay on topic please. And none of these ultra long posts .

more members now coming with an Easterly.......................a trend

This being a belter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-19-1-264.png?18

To be fair Gavin that post was a paste of Steve M's from NW. It has to be said I am an admirer of Steve's enthusiasm and effort especially when correlating the model performances and various limitations and the post was deservedly copied.

I've always been a fan of #19 and it's pretty close to what I expect to happen.

RE - The paste of Steve Murrs post.

Steve was unable to post it himself so left a link, although i thought it was a fantastic post, the only reason i copied it was because a user on this forum said he could not read it, so i re-formatted it into a different font and pasted it, sorry if it caused any inconvenience.

Sometimes quality and quantity can go together, Gavin.  I would rather read several of Steve Murr's analyses than some of the posts in here today that are full of opinion and lacking in analysis.

Just to continue my theme of posting the ECM ensembles for London, here is the 12z

Trending colder yet again and with the overwhelming majority of the runs going for progressively colder weather to take hold from Day 12 - eventually highs clustering around 3C and lows around -2/-3C

Yet again the GFS 12z is virtually an outlier from Day 6, introducing milder changeable conditions

Is that an alarm clock I hear in the background?

Usual model flip flops with an easterly - ECM has shunted the high much further SW on this run, let's see if tonight's run is any different.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

The ECM32 control run brings us a wet and windy Christmas with complex low pressure over the UK. Interestingly Scotland (and parts of northern England) are under sub -5C 850 air.

Before then there's a zonal spell out to 282 or so, followed by high pressure settling over southern parts of the UK. A high builds over Iceland at 402 and it moves over Scandinavia thereafter, forcing a low to stall over the UK. Another zonal spell then follows, with complex low pressure dominating NW Europe (including the UK) for Christmas Day.

Another high builds over Scandinavia thereafter, with a col over the UK by 618. An intense low then moves along the English Channel, leaving the UK under another col by 678. The weather then becomes unsettled as the battle between the high to the NE and a deep low over the mid-Atlantic continues into the new year. By 768 (the end of the run) there are strong southerlies over the UK.

(Of course, this is just one run of a long-range model and it almost certainly won't come off like this. Nonetheless, it shows repeated attempts at a Scandinavian High, not just a one off. Could be worth taking note of given the current output from the mainstream models...)