The ECM32 control run brings us a wet and windy Christmas with complex low pressure over the UK. Interestingly Scotland (and parts of northern England) are under sub -5C 850 air.
Before then there's a zonal spell out to 282 or so, followed by high pressure settling over southern parts of the UK. A high builds over Iceland at 402 and it moves over Scandinavia thereafter, forcing a low to stall over the UK. Another zonal spell then follows, with complex low pressure dominating NW Europe (including the UK) for Christmas Day.
Another high builds over Scandinavia thereafter, with a col over the UK by 618. An intense low then moves along the English Channel, leaving the UK under another col by 678. The weather then becomes unsettled as the battle between the high to the NE and a deep low over the mid-Atlantic continues into the new year. By 768 (the end of the run) there are strong southerlies over the UK.
(Of course, this is just one run of a long-range model and it almost certainly won't come off like this. Nonetheless, it shows repeated attempts at a Scandinavian High, not just a one off. Could be worth taking note of given the current output from the mainstream models...)
Originally Posted by: Retron