something to keep an eye on mean is slowly pushing up.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Reykjavik_ens.png

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

That sure is mighty purdy.

Love the positioning of the block to the north of Scandanavai - much better for the whole country than a SH positioned further to the south, which tends to favour the SE. That low looks like it'd disrupt as it reached the UK, then slide SE'wards. Massive snowfall for the SW'ern half of the country.

Pity it won't turn out anything like that.

Looks a good call based on the current charts.

Only anecdotal on my part but this guy seems to give the same shpeel every winter.

There are occasions when I would be really interested to know what they tweaked in the starting position to get a particular evolution.  This is a gold-plated example - what makes the WAA push northwards so strongly, I wonder? 

A major difference from the Op is the way P19 develops that quite deep surface LP and upper cold pool to our east.  As it drifts slowly westwards it helps to hold the high pressure in place as the jet comes underneath.

Assuming that he has access to output that we don't see and he is passing on his assessment of that output I would have thought it was genuinely useful to read.   It also happens to back up to some extent the trends we have been seeing recently in the model output that's available to the public.

Certainly another interesting period of model watching as we enter winter.

Some very interesting quotes / one liner this morning  from Matt Hugo re N/NE set up. I know this question has been raised before but possible we are on the verge of something special thats not been spotted by the met or reported just yet?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

It's been spotted you can be sure of that

It would be the ultimate irony that, as we enter a month that the majority of LRFs called fairly average and at times unsettled, we get the mother of all pre-Christmas easterlies that buries the country in 10ft snowdrifts.
It would be disruptive and dangerous yes, but man would I chuckle.

Originally Posted by: NDJF 

you have summed that up nicley. my thoughts 100%. Thank you.

Off Topic slightly but Met Office mid & longer range forecasts have changed to accommodate potential changes to cold conditions in the run up to Christmas.

Full details in the Media thread.

You may be confusing Ian Fergusson with Joe ******i?
Ian is a UKMO meteorologist and broadcaster for the W Country. He consequently has more comprehensive data available in both the short and long term. You can more or less take what he tweets/posts as sort of represenative of Exeter's position and hence worth paying attention to IMO.

Some very interesting quotes / one liner this morning  from Matt Hugo re N/NE set up. I know this question has been raised before but possible we are on the verge of something special thats not been spotted by the met or reported just yet?

Originally Posted by: NDJF 

It's been spotted you can be sure of that

It would be the ultimate irony that, as we enter a month that the majority of LRFs called fairly average and at times unsettled, we get the mother of all pre-Christmas easterlies that buries the country in 10ft snowdrifts.
It would be disruptive and dangerous yes, but man would I chuckle.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

 

you have summed that up nicley. my thoughts 100%. Thank you.

Originally Posted by: NDJF 

The metoffice are pro's and they know how to keep calm and level headed. They don't get woodies at a slight increase in probabilities of colder conditions 10 days out. They have to refrain from getting worked up like a teenage lad lost in the girls changing rooms... because if they don't keep their cool they comeout with something daft things like the BBQ summer and get slated when it fails to meterialise.

We also need to see signs of a pressure drop from the Med.  Spain -> Italy. Otherwise we will just end up with a Mild flow from a super HP cell straddling all of western europe.  Fog and greyness.... we dont want that thankyou.

This is for Southern France (near Cannes)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=565&y=582&run=6&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

And Central Switerland

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=605&y=369&run=6&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

Central Pyrennes - half way between the Med & Bay of Biscay

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=333&y=625&run=6&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

Great  Tweets and forecasts from I.F ...But I am west county man...

Good job GIBBY is just down the road as well.

Nice one!

Certainly enough runs to say theres something in the air - but too much grouping on a flat - sustained pressure pattern by my eyes.

Lets regroup on this tomorrow see if any more members are for turning!

15/12 Significant droppers:

Count 8 members on Cannes

Count 7 members on Swiss

Count 6-possibly 7 on Pyrenee's

That says to me more of a drop towards the med and away from North western europe.

Shall we meet at 07Z at the drop zone to discuss tactical operations?

Realistically we shouldn't expect too much progress on the Scandy high initiative on the short term, and one great OP run does not a winter make. What we should be looking for is a developing trend with a slow increase in members from EC and GFS supporting the scenario next week.
The 12Zs are starting to roll out now so dabbers at the ready and eyes down . . .

Don't you mean refresh button at the ready and pens down (if you are at work )

Very interesting update from Ian F on NW:

UKMO view (just chatted with them) remains as before: i.e. for Scandinavian block to establish after next week's milder (for some, notably so) phase and a progressively colder return from SE/E thereafter. 

--------------------------
Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS
Twitter: @fergieweather

I can take a week of mild gunk next week as a precurser to something seasonal over Christmas

Probably because GFS spins up another of its mythical <940mb Atlantic typhoons. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png 

I think we can safely assume there won't be that much energy blasting through from the Atlantic.