Model Output Discussion 02/12/13 >>>>>· Page 12

Matty H
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 10:35:38 PM

Good grief, wandered in here looking for some model output discussion, find it's Tena Lady night. More runs needed, just keep them off the bedclothes.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

I googled that, and this is a work laptop.

Originally Posted by: Arcus

LMFAO!!!!! 😂 😂 😂

Right! On topic all (including me)

The outlook is distinctly guff for the next week away from Docshire, but the season has only just started.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html

nouska
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 10:35:44 PM

#280

Quantum, they make them for men too - bear/bare in mind - just in case the model output changes to something more bladder stimulating!

To keep it vaguely on topic - hold on to your hats in the old home city!

http://i.imgur.com/G0eKZvy.png

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 10:52:55 PM

#281

the next couple of days aside, the today's model output is the most boring and tedious i've seen in a long time..... still, things can and do change fast, though i'm not holding out much hope.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

Rob K
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 10:55:07 PM

#282

It looks as though the notable cold outbreak over N America is going to be what scuppers the chances of building a Scandinavia high next week. The temperature gradient causes the jet to fire up just as the high is trying to build northwards, so it stands no chance.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 10:58:50 PM

#283

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Quantum
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:03:48 PM

#284

Nothing on the 18z to suggest any sort of blocking of the non-bartlett kind. Infact its a major downgrade from the 12z that was at least attempting to split the pv at 192.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:04:40 PM

#285

Temps IMBY from 18z for 12pm / 6pm

7c 7c 4c 6c 8c 11c 9c 7c 7c 7c 5c 5c 6c 4c 2c 3c

Hmmmm is it really 'that' mild

Edited by user Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:06:02 PM | Reason: Not specified

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Quantum
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:05:46 PM

#286

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:07:09 PM

#287

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Stuff Matty , I was on about my back yard

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:20:06 PM

#288

I guess the key here is patience as it won't take all that much of a change to reignite the easterly threat! Yesterday and this morning we had several perturbations showing easterlies and yet othe 12z there were none. Here's hoping for a few tonight!

St. Sampson
Guernsey

NickR
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:32:47 PM

#289

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

picturesareme
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:36:58 PM

#290

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: NickR

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

well said. Can't believe somebody from Northeast Engalnd could even beging to complain about the lack of snow.

Quantum
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:42:07 PM

#291

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: NickR

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

Well the conversation started because of a discussion about the lake effect. The idea being, that as time goes by the SSTs fall and more extreme lake effect snow becomes more difficult to achive. So while a stiff NErly and -12C 850s might deliver thunderstorms in early december, you only get flurries by late february. In december 2010, I saw thundersnow and some extreme convective falls. I am only saying, time is running out for that to happen again this year.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

NickR
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:44:14 PM

#292

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: NickR

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Well the conversation started because of a discussion about the lake effect. The idea being, that as time goes by the SSTs fall and more extreme lake effect snow becomes more difficult to achive. So while a stiff NErly and -12C 850s might deliver thunderstorms in early december, you only get flurries by late february. In december 2010, I saw thundersnow and some extreme convective falls. I am only saying, time is running out for that to happen again this year.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

OK. I guess it's just that moaning about no snow is one thing, but raising the bar so that you're only satisfied by thundersnow is a tad precious, maybe??

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:45:39 PM

#293

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: NickR

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

well said. Can't believe somebody from Northeast Engalnd could even beging to complain about the lack of snow.

Originally Posted by: Matty H

yes but don't forget Q is only 12

The NE must be a great place for wintry weather ????.....................................musn't it

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

NickR
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:47:31 PM

#294

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: NickR

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

well said. Can't believe somebody from Northeast Engalnd could even beging to complain about the lack of snow.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

yes but don't forget Q is only 12

The NE must be a great place for wintry weather ????.....................................musn't it

Originally Posted by: Matty H

I'm not sure, Marcus... this was about the best it got last year. Disappointing really.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]

Quantum
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:48:28 PM

#295

Most of the deepest falls of snow here, and we've had more than a few, have come in Jan or Feb. I can even think of a couple in March. Winter has barely started yet (or should that be bearly?) much to my dismay, but the window for snow has barely cracked open yet.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Agreed MBY has done very well in recent years during these 2 months .

For a mild boy that is a decent post to calm the old coldie down

Thanking you

Originally Posted by: picturesareme

Yeh but he has an ulimited supply of stalling warmfronts. The NE of england is the last place any decent frontal activity goes. . Still at least the short term is pretty good. Cold enough uppers for some thundersnow in parts of NE scotland and the N isles. I suspect some parts of scotland could get some large amounts of snow in a short period.

Originally Posted by: NickR

OK, so we're not the place for frontal snow. But we're still the snowiest region of England and have done very well in recent years. I share your disappointment when we get bugger all from frontal and battleground stuff, but, putting myself in others' shoes for a minute, it must be fairly annoying to have someone from the region that has seen most snow in the last few years moan about a lack of snow from warmfronts. Just saying.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

well said. Can't believe somebody from Northeast Engalnd could even beging to complain about the lack of snow.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

yes but don't forget Q is only 12

The NE must be a great place for wintry weather ????.....................................musn't it

Originally Posted by: Matty H

2011/2012 was a nightmare. I think there were only 3 days of snow in the entire winter, and it only settled on one.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Zubzero
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:51:23 PM

#296

Temps IMBY from 18z for 12pm / 6pm

7c 7c 4c 6c 8c 11c 9c 7c 7c 7c 5c 5c 6c 4c 2c 3c

Hmmmm is it really 'that' mild

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Nope, standard early Winter borefest

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

My guess is the 1st 2 weeks of Winter will be average temp wise

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:51:57 PM

#297

OK, far from perfect, but the 'potential' returns at least in part on the GFS 18z ensembles with pert. 16 and 19 in particular producing the goods in FI and perts. 3, 4, 10, 11 and 12 at least setting up an easterly of sorts and offering something potentially more appetising in the future. Off to London on the 'red eye' in the morning so hopefully when I get home on Thursday morning things will look better.

St. Sampson
Guernsey

Gooner
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:54:16 PM

#298

OK, far from perfect, but the 'potential' returns at least in part on the GFS 18z ensembles with pert. 16 and 19 in particular producing the goods in FI and perts. 3, 4, 10, 11 and 12 at least setting up an easterly of sorts and offering something potentially more appetising in the future. Off to London on the 'red eye' in the morning so hopefully when I get home on Thursday morning things will look better.

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille

Certainly a few to keep the hopefulls interested

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:58:54 PM

#299

Nothing on the 18z to suggest any sort of blocking of the non-bartlett kind. Infact its a major downgrade from the 12z that was at least attempting to split the pv at 192.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

That's the second time you've moaned about Bartletts tonight. But I can't remember seeing a Bartlett modelled anywhere this autumn. In fact I can't off-hand remember a Bartlett anywhere throughout 2013.

For reference, a Bartlett is stationary high pressure over the Continent with mild westerlies off the Atlantic riding over the top and directly through the UK.

If you can show me one single example of that from recent output, I'll be grateful.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Quantum
Advanced Member

Wednesday, December 4, 2013 12:08:52 AM

#300

Nothing on the 18z to suggest any sort of blocking of the non-bartlett kind. Infact its a major downgrade from the 12z that was at least attempting to split the pv at 192.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

That's the second time you've moaned about Bartletts tonight. But I can't remember seeing a Bartlett modelled anywhere this autumn. In fact I can't off-hand remember a Bartlett anywhere throughout 2013.

For reference, a Bartlett is stationary high pressure over the Continent with mild westerlies off the Atlantic riding over the top and directly through the UK.

If you can show me one single example of that from recent output, I'll be grateful.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131203/12/npsh500.192.png

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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