You must have been gutted

Hopefully it will pick up the Easterly flow, but yes it certainly wouldn't be your 10's , 11's and 12's

A "slow burn" easterly that may arrive next year

I give up now on this nonsense of chasing shadows. I'm moving to Romania on Jan 1st. The weather is cold and the women are hot

Liking the trend there Darren

Some interesting comments from Matt H on the wind direction too

Let me know when its time to roll out charts like this...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621207.gif

Until then I'll keep quiet.

()

Good morning folks. Here's my take on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday December 4th 2013.

All models show a change to colder, windier and brighter conditions beginning today as the first of two weak cold fronts cross SE bringing fresher and somewhat colder conditions with some sunshine later today and some frost tonight. At this time all models also show a rapidly deepening depression crossing East to the north of Scotland and then on over Europe with a fast moving cold front moving South tomorrow bringing a narrow and short-lived burst of rain followed by very much colder weather with severe gales in the North for a time along with snow showers, appreciable on Scottish mountains for a time. High pressure then builds quickly back across Southern areas and cuts off the cold feed to bring a less cold weekend and probably rather cloudy again with a little rain possible in the North for a time.

GFS then shows the High settling to the South, most likely over France with a mild SW flow over the North and West with cloud and a little drizzle possible. The South and East will share in this benign weather pattern but here there remains a risk of patchy night frost and fog should cloud breaks occur. Things then turn more changeable for all briefly with some rain possible for just about all as troughs move through before thing again return anticyclonic and benign at the end of the run and still relatively mild for December.

UKMO today closes it's run for next Tuesday High pressure well established to the SE of Britain with relatively mild Southerly winds moving North over the UK. The North and West will likely feel the full benefit of these with largely dry and cloudy conditions while the South too sees a lot of cloud too but less mild with some mist, fog and frost patches possible at times should cloud breaks drift across in association with drier continental air to the SE.

GEM shows a similar pattern to begin the week but it pulls High pressure to more northern latitudes over Europe maintaining a ridge towards Britain. This then allows colder and brighter conditions to gradually infiltrate the South of the UK from Europe with frost and fog patches night and morning while the North clings on to milder weather.

NAVGEM is virtually the same with High pressure to the East drawing up Southerly winds with the mildest air to the North and West with the same patchy fog and frost risk likely towards more South-eastern parts of Britain.

ECM keeps High pressure towards the East and SE with a slack SE flow over the South for much of the time. There looks likely to be a lot of cloud trapped in the flow but as with the other models a SE feed from Europe could carry clearer and colder air in at times with frost and patchy fog night and morning. Further North and West this looks less likely with the mildest weather likely in the NW.

The GFS Ensemble data suggests a very dry period for Southern and Eastern areas with high uppers aloft once the cold phase clears out of the way early this weekend. There is little rain shown throughout for the South with any shown transitory to a route with more High pressure.

The Jet Stream is expected to maintain a position well Northwest of the UK next week and beyond probably near Iceland offering the UK no real chance of tapping into cold conditions anytime soon with High pressure maintained over Southern and Central Europe.

In Summary today there is no chance of any real cold shown in any of the output this morning under the time span covered. This gives us two weeks in which to relax from wondering whether the atmosphere will throw anything at us that will affect any outdoor plans as after the next few days with High pressure close to the SE days of useable benign weather conditions look likely when we will be chasing areas of cloud around to allow some pleasant and relatively mild sunshine or conversely as to how much frost and fog such clearances at night will allow. Such breaks are more likely over the South and East where conditions shouldn't be overly mild but further North and West mild weather is likely and here there is more risk of occasional rain from Atlantic fronts 

ecm at the bottom of P

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Perhaps becoming colder from the s/e with time?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2013120400/gemnh-0-222.png?00

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

It might be cold in the SE, but in the NW it will be very mild indeed, with double digit maximuns easily. With no arctic blocking evident at all, you are really going to struggle to get any sustained cold spell in the near future, and sure the ECM ensembles are cold, but thats in london at the surface under inversion conditions. The reason we use 850s in the first place is to gauge the overall temperature of the airmass, independant of what goes on right near the surface. But even under inversion conditions, you are unlikely to see any spectacular temperatures and the ECM generally progs ~5C maxima and 2C minima for london which is significantly colder than average but still pretty benign.  

And yes I would call this thing sitting to the South a bartlett, especially when it is more centered over france/spain than further east. For scotland indeed, things will be wet and mild and for the south colder and more settled. 

The apparently semi-permanent belt of high pressure in the 'wrong' place has been christened ... "The Bartlett High"

I would call this thing semi-permnent and in the wrong place ergo bartlett. 

it has the setting stones

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

Donrt worry about it he gives his self a hard time about it some some reason    

No I don't, and under that definitiojn it is a bartlett, especially on the ECM last night where it was even more so. In fact it looks uncannily similar as some 1989 charts which was supposed to be a classic bartlett year. How is it not a bartlett? High pressure centered over SW europe, bringing a mild SWerly feed to NWern parts from the azors? That is the definition your website gave me. And bartlett high isn't even an officially used term anyway, the only sources I can find with information on the bartlett are ameateur websites, but under the definition typically used - i.e high pressure over Europe, low pressure to the North, southern yet, mild air coming over the top from the SW; in what universe is this not a bartlett?

This forum doesn't half argue at the smallest of issues. Get a life.

In summary next week - A high pressure dominated outlook with mild air especially the further north and west you are with air from the SW leading to some locally high maxima due to Fohn effects to the lee of high ground, especially places like the Moray Firth etc.

Cooler at times towards the South and East, especially so if a slight continental influence to the airmass prevails.

Litte evidence to support any properly deep cold air arriving from the east.

GFS op has lots of orange on it and is mild whether anyone likes it or not. Naturally that's trolling

Temps into double figures for many out at T+138. ECM looks very similar.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I'm saying no more until the ECM ensembles come out later. Other, that is, to say that Gandalf gets it even if no-one else does!

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Gets what? Speculation or interpretation? Or is just cold trolling? What's good for the goose...

Bottom line is both charts around that stage show mild weather. Temps in southern England are up to 13c on the GFS charts.

What happens further down the line may change of course, and anyone with half a brain knows that temps will gradually fall away at ground level under sustained high pressure during winter.

The main point of interest for me is how dry it will be. Gives me an incentive to wash the car knowing it won't be plastered in grime two days later

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I think you're comparing apples and oranges.....

It's the uppers in conjunction with the synoptics and GFS brings the airmass from a mild source which ECM does not.

A rare occasion when we're all right...!

If GFS is modelling the evolution correctly it may well be mild - if the High is positioned such that we get a SE component to the flow then mild it won't be (away from western coastal areas - maybe covering Yate...)

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Which was kind of my point. You're basing your prediction on what may happen, I'm commenting on what is being shown on the GFS and ECM op charts. I haven't time to go through the spread, but there may well be options there that back your wish, so I'll give you that.

Maybe the UKMO updates will be telling later. At the moment they clearly don't "get it" either as they talk about milder weather right out to mid month as things currently stand, although the SE is mentioned as having possibly cold incursions at times.

We'll see.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I think you're misinterpreting what I've said. I have only pointed out that the ECM run doesn't bring any mild air into much of the country - as Darren has said, max of 8C at best, which is average not mild. IF the ECM evolves as modelled then as the high drifts north we end up first in anticyclonic conditions, ie potentially gloomy or frosty, then eventually a SE feed. That's kind of where the MetO outlook takes us.

Yes, there's a mass of Arctic air away on the eastern flank of the high and it will advect our way if the high keeps drifting north. If it doesn't it won't....

I prefer winter days to be cold and bright rather than mild and yucky but I'll interpret the charts as I see them and if I was commenting on GFS I'd say average to mild. But I'll save my efforts as I'm not sure GFS has got it right either.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I'm no fan of mild, dull winter days either tbh. Yesterday I had the lights on in my house at around 2pm and it felt as though it never got properly daylight yesterday. I always prefer bright days at this time of year, even if they are of the cold variety.

Re the models, I'm not sure that GFS has it right either. I mentioned last night how in my experience, the 12Z GFS runs often seem to be rather over-progressive and I'm wondering whether, having intially suggested a oressure rise to the NE a few days back, it has now seemingly dropped the idea, only to perhaps bring it back again at a later time. We've seen that happen with the GFS and other models in the past.

Defining a Bartlett is a huge issue in weather terms. A Bartlett pattern is very difficult to shift and promises mild, wet and windy weather off the Atlantic for weeks ahead.

What is being modelled at the moment is the exact opposite, hence all sorts of possibilities are opened up as the high over us changes shape and direction.

The last point helps explain why model output has been offering many different outcomes at the 240 hr stage over the last fortnight or so. Unless the current high-pressure set-up is defined and understood properly, the fluctuating model output just looks like the work of chimps with crayons, rather than the correct response to current conditions.