An update based on the GFS 12z run today.
First, we have today's system to get rid of, which takes until tomorrow afternoon to clear the south-east.
A lot of rain this evening:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/9-574UK.GIF?20-12
Lingering and returning to the SE corner tomorrow:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/21-574UK.GIF?20-12
Accompanied by gale force gusts: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/9-289UK.GIF?20-12
Tomorrow afternoon a disturbance running quickly ENE tightens the isobars again and delivers another windy spell for a swathe of the centre of the country.
SLP: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/30-515UK.GIF?20-12
Wind gusts: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/30-289UK.GIF?20-12
Rain with snow in places as it clears east: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/30-574UK.GIF?20-12
Breezy with blustery wintry showers on Sunday, a brief respite before Monday's storm arrives:
An exceptionally windy spell stretching through much of Monday, arriving in the west at 9am. Once again, these are maximum predicted gusts:
9am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/69-289UK.GIF?20-12
Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/72-289UK.GIF?20-12
Gusts of 75mph or more along a swathe of western coastal counties
3pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/75-289UK.GIF?20-12
Gusts widely of 70mph for central areas
6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/78-289UK.GIF?20-12
Midnight Xmas Eve and the band of gale force gusts associated with the cold front still lingers in the SE:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/84-289UK.GIF?20-12
The rain arrives with the wind, reaching the west by 9am:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/69-574UK.GIF?20-12
Spreading steadily east and leaving all parts with a lot of rain, some heavy and with hill snow for Scotland. The SE corner of England escapes until later in the afternoon
Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/72-574UK.GIF?20-12
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/75-574UK.GIF?20-12 Heavy rain reaches the SE of England for the evening rush hour:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/78-574UK.GIF?20-12
The cold front moves into the west:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/81-574UK.GIF?20-12
and moves east overnight into the morning of Xmas Eve:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/84-574UK.GIF?20-12
Across the SE quarter by 6am Xmas Eve, with wintry showers for the west
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/90-574UK.GIF?20-12
Xmas Eve sees heavy rain and snow for the western side from Scotland down to Wales. The picture at midday:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-574UK.GIF?20-12
With a band of extremely strong winds covering north Wales, much of northern England and Scotland, with storm force gusts approaching western Scotland:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-289UK.GIF?20-12
By Xmas Eve evening there are gusts of 100mph just reaching the Glasgow area:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/102-289UK.GIF?20-12
This swathe of storm force gusts exits the coast near Aberdeen by midnight Xmas Day:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/108-289UK.GIF?20-12
Xmas Day sees the winds easing but western Scotland continues to see heavy rain and hill snow
Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/108-574UK.GIF?20-12
6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/114-574UK.GIF?20-12
Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/120-574UK.GIF?20-12
There is something of a lull for many places until the next storm arrives on Friday. This one looks very potent once again:
6am 27th: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/162-289UK.GIF?20-12
Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/168-289UK.GIF?20-12
Accompanied by more heavy and widespread rain moving steadily east:
6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/162-574UK.GIF?20-12
Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/168-574UK.GIF?20-12
6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/174-574UK.GIF?20-12
Saturday sees yet more rain moving in, with another band of strong winds accompanying it.
6am - wind gusts: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/186-289UK.GIF?20-12
Rain:
6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/186-574UK.GIF?20-12
Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/192-574UK.GIF?20-12
The cumulative rainfall charts show worryingly high totals for some places:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/192-777UK.GIF?20-12
If this all evolves as the models show then the weather will be making the news over the next week with transport disruption, damage and flooding. Not at all what we want when there are people out travelling with families.
Edited by user
20 December 2013 17:59:45
|
Reason: Not specified
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E