Not sure if this link has been posted before, but a very useful way of checking the current wind speeds not only locally but globally. Very useful over the next few weeks I think.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-8.91,31.71,795 

If you click Earth in the bottom left corner it opens a settings menu where you can change the heights.

Fortunatily we have had no damage overnight. A few bits blown about in the garden but the roof in intact. Some damage on the way to work though:

• A new electricity pole put up last week in now about 30 degrees off centre


• Lots of road signs broken or missing


• A tree down at Uig

Really not to bad considering the speeds....

Take care of yourself and the family and very good not much damage keep us updated.

 

Saturday does look to be especially windy where we can expect 24 hours of strong to near-gales south west winds between 9 pm Friday and Saturday evening. It won't be as hairy as what we had last night but that'll be one long blow (that came out a bit wrong). Fun for those living at exposed coastal and hilly areas as it feels like we are living at the Hebrides rather than Kent.
The rain won't be a problem at this end as I'm not expecting too much of that, it's more the wind that will be the more notable feature.
  Actually, having thought about it, that should make for some cool looking lenticular cloud formations so it may be worth having the camera primed and ready for that.

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An update based on the GFS 12z run today.

First, we have today's system to get rid of, which takes until tomorrow afternoon to clear the south-east.

A lot of rain this evening:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/9-574UK.GIF?20-12

Lingering and returning to the SE corner tomorrow:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/21-574UK.GIF?20-12

Accompanied by gale force gusts: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/9-289UK.GIF?20-12

 

Tomorrow afternoon a disturbance running quickly ENE tightens the isobars again and delivers another windy spell for a swathe of the centre of the country.

SLP: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/30-515UK.GIF?20-12

Wind gusts: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/30-289UK.GIF?20-12

Rain with snow in places as it clears east: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/30-574UK.GIF?20-12

 

Breezy with blustery wintry showers on Sunday, a brief respite before Monday's storm arrives:

An exceptionally windy spell stretching through much of Monday, arriving in the west at 9am. Once again, these are maximum predicted gusts:

9am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/69-289UK.GIF?20-12

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/72-289UK.GIF?20-12

Gusts of 75mph or more along a swathe of western coastal counties

3pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/75-289UK.GIF?20-12

Gusts widely of 70mph for central areas

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/78-289UK.GIF?20-12

Midnight Xmas Eve and the band of gale force gusts associated with the cold front still lingers in the SE:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/84-289UK.GIF?20-12

 

The rain arrives with the wind, reaching the west by 9am:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/69-574UK.GIF?20-12

Spreading steadily east and leaving all parts with a lot of rain, some heavy and with hill snow for Scotland. The SE corner of England escapes until later in the afternoon

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/72-574UK.GIF?20-12

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/75-574UK.GIF?20-12 

Heavy rain reaches the SE of England for the evening rush hour:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/78-574UK.GIF?20-12

The cold front moves into the west:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/81-574UK.GIF?20-12

and moves east overnight into the morning of Xmas Eve:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/84-574UK.GIF?20-12

Across the SE quarter by 6am Xmas Eve, with wintry showers for the west

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/90-574UK.GIF?20-12

 

Xmas Eve sees heavy rain and snow for the western side from Scotland down to Wales. The picture at midday:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-574UK.GIF?20-12

With a band of extremely strong winds covering north Wales, much of northern England and Scotland, with storm force gusts approaching western Scotland:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/96-289UK.GIF?20-12

By Xmas Eve evening there are gusts of 100mph just reaching the Glasgow area:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/102-289UK.GIF?20-12

This swathe of storm force gusts exits the coast near Aberdeen by midnight Xmas Day:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/108-289UK.GIF?20-12

 

Xmas Day sees the winds easing but western Scotland continues to see heavy rain and hill snow

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/108-574UK.GIF?20-12

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/114-574UK.GIF?20-12

Noon:  http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/120-574UK.GIF?20-12

 

There is something of a lull for many places until the next storm arrives on Friday.  This one looks very potent once again:

6am 27th: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/162-289UK.GIF?20-12

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/168-289UK.GIF?20-12

Accompanied by more heavy and widespread rain moving steadily east:

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/162-574UK.GIF?20-12

Noon:  http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/168-574UK.GIF?20-12

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/174-574UK.GIF?20-12

 

Saturday sees yet more rain moving in, with another band of strong winds accompanying it.

6am - wind gusts: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/186-289UK.GIF?20-12

Rain:

6am: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/186-574UK.GIF?20-12

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/192-574UK.GIF?20-12

 

The cumulative rainfall charts show worryingly high totals for some places:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122012/192-777UK.GIF?20-12

 

If this all evolves as the models show then the weather will be making the news over the next week with transport disruption, damage and flooding.  Not at all what we want when there are people out travelling with families.

 

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Looking at the incoming storms over Christmas I am almost looking forward to the Bartlett being modelled for New Year

I dont mind interesting weather but I have one eye on my temporary greenhouse that holds all my Medaterrainan plants for the winter.

Andy

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I think there's a lot of 'Chicken Licken' hyperbole around at the minute.

Stormy, yes. Record-breaking, 'one for the annals', I very much doubt it. It is a pity, though, that it's going to be the NW that gets the worst of it.

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I find that odd. Who would you prefer was in the firing line for potentially damaging and severe storm force winds ?

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France?

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Window rattlingly windy here in Dover. Over the next week we have several storm systems and up to 7 inches of rain forecast to fall in northern and western parts. Along the south coast the forecast rainfall amounts to 4 to 5 inches. Damaging gusts in excess of 75 mph are likely across many parts of the coast and I notice NW Scotland faces gusts possibly up to 100mph!!

Some strange perceptions abound at the moment. To my mind, we are entering the most exciting/worrying spell of festive weather for some considerable time for many. Christmas Eve and Day still indicate wet snow and sleet are a possibility for a few, mainly in the west. The professional weather forecasters will earn their dough this year.

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Good observations Whether Idle. 

A soggy 5 days ahead, particularly for coastal southern locations and obviously many other places further north and west due to orographic influences and exposure to the volatile atalntic in such a wild and zonal pattern.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122100/120-777.GIF?21-0

 

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Agreed - Monday's system looks very unpleasant

It's the possibility of flooding for some folks over the Christmas period that will be worrying for some.

Edit- No doubt the stormy weather will be held responsible by those who need something other than themselves to blame for poor sales figures over Christmas.

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70mph gusts at the moment are becoming "normal" for us. At any other time wind speeds would be classed as pretty wild if they topped 70mph, even here in North West Scotland but that is what we saw yesterday, and what we have seen today. Over the past 14 days I would be surprised if we have had a day with gust speeds coming in below 60mph! This is easily the longest single sustained spell of storm force (in the peak wind speed sense) wind speeds. Even my daily average speed is high, topping 30 or 35mph based on spot readings taken every minute over 24 hours.

Another wild night Monday / Tuesday by the looks of it.....great.

There has been further damage done btw, chimneys blown down, greenhouses flattened (these are the top notch versions in terms of strength - Rhino I think), protected polytunnels slashed and sheds bucked (which are chained to the ground of course).....

Isn't it just dreadful!!  God damn confounded jet stream!! 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122100/gfs-0-168.png?0

Very stormy

A worry the further North you are (GFS)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122100/ECM1-168.GIF?21-12

No storm from ECM ??

 

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My thinking is with you guys up there, Im glad you posted that because Ive been thinking if I lived in the Hebrides I would be pig sick of the wind by now.

We really need this unparalleled spell of stormy weather to blow itself out, but the difficulty is, as we all know, that this is the pattern that has proven most difficult to shift in the past.

A case of batten down the hatches and pray for change.

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Actually, the way I'm seeing it, for once the Jet Stream isn't to blame as that'll be well out to the west of the UK by that time, riding over an area of high pressure. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/00/87/hgt300.png
  So what's occurring on Monday and into Tuesday looks more like a very large, healthy and deep Icelandic low pressure system with most of it out at sea rather than a tightly packed depression complete with sting jets and baroclinic leafs slicing through the country. But, again, I may be looking at this the wrong way so feel free to correct me on this one.
  However, of course this feature is still not one to be taken lightly as it'll cause widespread problems all the same - couldn't happen at a worse time what with people wanting to go ahead with their Christmas getaway. And again, why is it that the worse of the wind always seem to occur at night time around here??

Anyway, getting back to the here-and-now and on a much more local scale, it isn't really that bad over here this morning as the hilly built up bit (the one with the scary looking tower) is acting like a windbreak thus shielding my house from this strong to gale-force south west wind. Stll dull and wet, though. Last Wednesday night's effort was worse because the wind was a southerly coming straight in from the channel.

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Monday's system bombs out as it approaches and GFS now models it to deepen all the way down to a remarkable 928mb!

If it verifies, that will make it one of or possibly the deepest system I have ever watched unfold.

 

The trend over the past few days has been to deepen the system just that little bit further... which makes me wonder what we might end up with later next week:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/00/162/h850t850eu.png

That one tracks further south than Monday's storm, and this has been a consistent feature of recent GFS runs. This closer proximity to the high pressure across Europe makes for an even tighter wind gradient, with a swathe of strong winds such as I have never seen modelled across the near-Atlantic:

chttp://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/00/162/ukwind.png.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131221/00/162/ukwind.png 

 

...but ECM has decided to drop the phasing of the lows all of a sudden, having been the first to decide that phasing would occur! Classic...

thttp://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131221/00/ecmt850.144.pngatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131221/00/ecmt850.144.png 

The difference to previous runs and disagreement with GFS, UKMO and GEM is so huge that it has to be viewed with little confidence.

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LOL!

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As Martin lives in the NW It is quite a sensible statement I'd say

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GFS 6z continues to upgade the Monday night / Tuesday morning storm..worryingly.

Sustained winds now peak at 47mph, with probably another 12 hours around this with sustained winds of circa 40mph steady.

FWIW we are now exceeding the October storm wrt the values currently being progged.

October saw the sustained winds on the link below settle at around 43mph.

We are now probably talking gusts slightly above 80mph here on the coast.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD

 

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Not a great time for us to have removed the chimney from the house really is it??? We have plywood and sheeting covering the hole, but as we are on a ridge on the downs I can see them disappearing!!

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 You know me. Not sure I like the sound of that.

Just have to hope that I don't get the full force of it if is coming in from the SW rather than the S but by looking at that graph, don't think I'll get lucky with that. Never will I complain about the "lack of interesting weather" again.

PS: Another thing, just what IS it with the strongest winds always occuring in the middle of the night?

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