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Polar Low
20 December 2013 08:49:01

gm really seems to split into 4 cant get much wetter than that


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=0&carte=0

johnm1976
20 December 2013 08:55:12


I think December has to be written off at this stage as a mild and zonal month. Almost no chance of anything changing before january. And even then I can't see anything that interesting though I will keep looking :S. The promising heights over the arctic and southern jetstream are severely tempered by cold pooling over the E USA and a very active atlantic. A negative AO will do nothing if the NAO remains very strongly positive. Wrg to strat warming, I can finally see something more than noise, but any warming is still very minor and at southern latitudes and more importantly at the back end of FI. Even if an SSW event occurs, it will only affect us by mid january and even then SSWs do not guarantee anything. Basically the 500hpa level is almost always more exicitng to me than the 30hpa+ level, with some exceptions for instance the SSW event last year.  


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I think in the absence of anything interesting at lower levels looking higher up provides a bit of interest. At least it's something tangible which could produce a pattern change. There's now a proper SSW being modeled at 10 hPa in FI on GFS.


Having said that there have been some interesting GFS FIs in the last few op runs, although not particularly in the 0z from what I can see. Windy and cold most of the way through sums it up.


I suppose a pressure build up it models over the Pole in FI is a straw to clutch if, like me, you like winter to feature a cold snap or 10?

The Beast from the East
20 December 2013 08:59:22


 


I expect any proper winter to be late this year, just as the spring lambs and daffodils arrive, throwing nature into some confusion.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I'd accept a re-run of last March, although it would be nice to get the blocking a little earlier


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
nsrobins
20 December 2013 09:02:04

'Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way.
Oh how sad it is to see it zonal day to day'.


Still no compelling evidence of any other pattern than a constant train of lows on a westerly flow right out to New Year.


 

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
johnm1976
20 December 2013 09:02:55


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=10&carte=1


I couldnt find the strat thread so i hope MODs dont mind this being in here - but some noticeable warming possibly starting to take place, potentially either side of the pole - which COULD, if developed, have some interesting reprecussions ala last year. One to watch.


Originally Posted by: ITSY 


Yes this has been modelled for some time and is strengthening. Worth watching IMO although what it does if and when it verifies then propogates down is not well understood. It will result in cold for someone although not necessarily us.


SSWs have been regular features of winters lately (and the possible reasons for that are interesting in themselves - they used to be as regular as world cups). There was a big one in January 2012, but the deep cold stopped at the Dutch Coast. A similar event in Jan this year on the other hand gave us a couple of weeks of lying snow and ice days in an otherwise bog standard winter.


We shall see.

nsrobins
20 December 2013 09:08:00

Not really keen to dwell on this, but some if not most UK cold spells are not directly attributable to SWW events (if you look at the timeline of SWWs and following conditions).
The UK is a very small pebble on the beach of a huge warm ocean and it's more luck than judgement that we get any cold weather at all.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
20 December 2013 09:10:12

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.png


At least Xmas Day and Boxing Day will feel seasonal

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
20 December 2013 09:12:16

looks like a continued wave pattern imo with no end in sight if you look at fax charts


http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72


 


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 


 


 

Polar Low
20 December 2013 09:21:01

Intresting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

nsrobins
20 December 2013 09:25:21


intersting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


It could develop a bit more, but the phasing required for rapid cyclogensis isn't quite there and I've been quite impressed with Euro4 performance so far (it got yesterday's trough spot on) so I wouldn't expect too many issues with this particular feature.
We then have Sunday onwards though . . . .

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Polar Low
20 December 2013 09:37:47

quite a bit of incoming rain with that gfs little shortwave Neil


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=36&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


 



intersting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


It could develop a bit more, but the phasing required for rapid cyclogensis isn't quite there and I've been quite impressed with Euro4 performance so far (it got yesterday's trough spot on) so I wouldn't expect too many issues with this particular feature.
We then have Sunday onwards though . . . .


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Charmhills
20 December 2013 09:41:33


'Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way.
Oh how sad it is to see it zonal day to day'.


Still no compelling evidence of any other pattern than a constant train of lows on a westerly flow right out to New Year.


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Indeed, very unsettled with little sign of any cold wintry weather on offer.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
20 December 2013 09:43:53

goodness me looks a bit more developed.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0


 


 



quite a bit of incoming rain with that gfs little shortwave Neil


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=36&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


 



intersting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


It could develop a bit more, but the phasing required for rapid cyclogensis isn't quite there and I've been quite impressed with Euro4 performance so far (it got yesterday's trough spot on) so I wouldn't expect too many issues with this particular feature.
We then have Sunday onwards though . . . .


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Arcus
20 December 2013 09:44:28



intersting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


It could develop a bit more, but the phasing required for rapid cyclogensis isn't quite there and I've been quite impressed with Euro4 performance so far (it got yesterday's trough spot on) so I wouldn't expect too many issues with this particular feature.
We then have Sunday onwards though . . . .


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Quite possible GFS is overcooking things Neil, but I wouldn't rule it out as a protential trouble maker. From the 6z:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png


BBC weather talking about hail, lightning and strong winds with this system.


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gooner
20 December 2013 09:45:33



'Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way.
Oh how sad it is to see it zonal day to day'.


Still no compelling evidence of any other pattern than a constant train of lows on a westerly flow right out to New Year.


 


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Indeed, very unsettled with little sign of any cold wintry weather on offer.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Apart from in the North

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
20 December 2013 09:54:33

 


look at that in that small area just to the south one to keep an eye on for sure.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/vent-rafales/36h.htm


 





intersting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


It could develop a bit more, but the phasing required for rapid cyclogensis isn't quite there and I've been quite impressed with Euro4 performance so far (it got yesterday's trough spot on) so I wouldn't expect too many issues with this particular feature.
We then have Sunday onwards though . . . .


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Quite possible GFS is overcooking things Neil, but I wouldn't rule it out as a protential trouble maker. From the 6z:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png


BBC weather talking about hail, lightning and strong winds with this system.


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

JACKO4EVER
20 December 2013 09:57:04



intersting that!


looks like a tiny shortwave here


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=


euro 4 does not see like that


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=



Saturday's little disturbance, which had been dropped by GFS, appears to be back again this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn422.png

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Yeh, that looks pretty nasty. Toying with the idea of this little feature means to my untrained eye that it could turn vicious- rapid bombing that the model is struggling to come to terms with. One to keep an eye on. This evenings fax charts will be interesting for sure.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Yes, it has been shown as a trough on the faxes, but it may develop a circulation and become a more potent feature. 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


It could develop a bit more, but the phasing required for rapid cyclogensis isn't quite there and I've been quite impressed with Euro4 performance so far (it got yesterday's trough spot on) so I wouldn't expect too many issues with this particular feature.
We then have Sunday onwards though . . . .


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Quite possible GFS is overcooking things Neil, but I wouldn't rule it out as a protential trouble maker. From the 6z:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn361.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn362.png


BBC weather talking about hail, lightning and strong winds with this system.


 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 



Really, this does need watching. Any further upgrades and we could end up with a real trouble maker. This zonal train is sure unstoppable ATM

Polar Low
20 December 2013 10:01:59

Huge amount of rain in some parts of the south in a very short period


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/36h.htm

Russwirral
20 December 2013 10:46:14
Girthmeister
20 December 2013 10:54:35


Huge amount of rain in some parts of the south in a very short period


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/36h.htm


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


And more so, western Scotland http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/36h.htm

NickR
  • NickR
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
20 December 2013 11:01:38



Huge amount of rain in some parts of the south in a very short period


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/36h.htm


Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


And more so, western Scotland http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/36h.htm


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


I know the NE of England gets a bad press about its weather, but as that chart shows, we are incredibly well shielded from the rain in these zonal situations.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
nsrobins
20 December 2013 11:03:16

I concede Saturday's feature has been tightened up by the 06 NAE - deepening by 4mb in three hours between 15Z and 18Z.
Let's see what teh Euro4 makes of it when it updates in the next hour but I agree an increasing risk of potent winds on the southern flank should the closure process continue.
Midlands and NE England at risk from a brief period of very strong winds.

Rain too in many places - and a lot of it.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Charmhills
20 December 2013 11:12:46

 



I concede Saturday's feature has been tightened up by the 06 NAE - deepening by 4mb in three hours between 15Z and 18Z.
Let's see what teh Euro4 makes of it when it updates in the next hour but I agree an increasing risk of potent winds on the southern flank should the closure process continue.
Midlands and NE England at risk from a brief period of very strong winds.

Rain too in many places - and a lot of it.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The East Midlands looking fairly dry at times compared to other parts of the country.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
nouska
20 December 2013 12:42:13


I concede Saturday's feature has been tightened up by the 06 NAE - deepening by 4mb in three hours between 15Z and 18Z.
Let's see what teh Euro4 makes of it when it updates in the next hour but I agree an increasing risk of potent winds on the southern flank should the closure process continue.
Midlands and NE England at risk from a brief period of very strong winds.

Rain too in many places - and a lot of it.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


It must be a concern for forecasters with such different outcomes at such a short time frame. The 06Z HIRLAM and Euro4 both make little of it - little wave 1000mb - whereas the latest NMM is closer to the GFS prognosis.


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3550/nmm-2-36-0_nbn3.png

Polar Low
20 December 2013 12:44:20

 is that worth a tenner has a long shot?  5/1 for london willams


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2858/gfs-2-120_wna2.png


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0


 opp was above the mean at that time for London


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


it might be a slushy mess but it would count


 

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