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Rob K
22 December 2013 11:04:02
The 06z GFS certainly doesn't look hopeless for cold prospects to me?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png 

1050mb high to the north. If the Atlantic quietened down a tad then the floodgates could open.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
22 December 2013 11:14:23

Nothing in the models for coldies this morning, more cool zonality with less sign of pressure rises to the north or south.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 



Nothing?? Compared to 4 days ago the pressure rises over the arctic are greater. I reckon by around the 9-10 January we will be staring down the barrel of a significant cold spell, which looks most likely to come from the east.

That high forms then drifts across the pole before ending up over Svalbard, Northern Scandinavia, Central North Russia... It continues to drift west on gfs but that's deep in F1. The high can be seen on both gfs & ecmwf.

Granted this high is still in 'F1' but it has been a consistent thing now for quite awhile.. It's positioning and strength has varied but that is understandable.

I think people on here moaning about there being nothing for coldies, no sign of cold etc etc need to get a grip and start looking at the bigger picture rather then the smaller patch of the northwest Europe that we live on.
picturesareme
22 December 2013 11:16:21

The 06z GFS certainly doesn't look hopeless for cold prospects to me?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png 

1050mb high to the north. If the Atlantic quietened down a tad then the floodgates could open.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Lol you posted this as I was righting up my own, glad I'm not the only one seeing potential 🙂
nouska
22 December 2013 11:25:05

What people forget is that last dec was the same as this year and the pattern changed mid jan with snow and freezing cold that lasted till March

Regardless of how strong the Atlantic is the pattern can and will change for snow fans in jan

Originally Posted by: sriram 


I don't think there will be a SSW riding to the rescue for January as there was last winter - yes, there is warming and a squeeze on the vortex but doesn't look to be sustained or a promising shape atm; things may change of course.

Phil G
22 December 2013 11:25:53
After this weeks storm events, get the feeling there are signals of a big change in weather pattern with an Arctic-Siberian high building out to the north and north east.
Wouldn't be surprised at all if we are looking at a traditional old two week freeze as we go into the second week of January.
Phil G
22 December 2013 11:26:48

The 06z GFS certainly doesn't look hopeless for cold prospects to me?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png 

1050mb high to the north. If the Atlantic quietened down a tad then the floodgates could open.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Lol you posted this as I was righting up my own, glad I'm not the only one seeing potential :)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Agreed, something's afoot.

glenogle
22 December 2013 12:01:50



Thanks Martin and another succinct summary.

Without appearing to blow smoke up your arse, these posts are excellent and the effort you put into them is much appreciated.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



I'll second that Neil. Those forecast summaries from Martin are excellent. 


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I enjoy them along with many of the other regular contributions.


The only thing missing is the Retron morning summary and more especially in conditions like this Brens doodles.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
nickl
22 December 2013 12:31:03

What people forget is that last dec was the same as this year and the pattern changed mid jan with snow and freezing cold that lasted till March

Regardless of how strong the Atlantic is the pattern can and will change for snow fans in jan

Originally Posted by: nouska 


I don't think there will be a SSW riding to the rescue for January as there was last winter - yes, there is warming and a squeeze on the vortex but doesn't look to be sustained or a promising shape atm; things may change of course.

Originally Posted by: sriram 



with our understanding of the trop/strat relationship still in its infancy, it's tough to know what will cause a to b etc etc, what is if different this season is the ecm ens now model right up to the top of the strat. (Up till last month they only went to 5 hpa). The current warmings are coming right from the top of the strat so we can look forward to the ecm ens giving reasonable guidance in the event that this affects the trop.

I firmly believe this arctic high will be important but I am not sure if the Atlantic jet will allow it to affect our little bit of nw Europe.
Gooner
22 December 2013 12:33:14

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-0-132.png?6


This is also looking horrendous later in the week

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
22 December 2013 12:37:53

 


The 06z GFS certainly doesn't look hopeless for cold prospects to me?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

1050mb high to the north. If the Atlantic quietened down a tad then the floodgates could open.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Its looking very unsettled as far as the eye can see.


Pressure is trying to rise to the north but if we're on the wrong side it will come to nothing.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
22 December 2013 12:53:15

I feel the same about it Duane


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 



 


The 06z GFS certainly doesn't look hopeless for cold prospects to me?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

1050mb high to the north. If the Atlantic quietened down a tad then the floodgates could open.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Its looking very unsettled as far as the eye can see.


Pressure is trying to rise to the north but if we're on the wrong side it will come to nothing.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 13:00:14


What people forget is that last dec was the same as this year and the pattern changed mid jan with snow and freezing cold that lasted till March

Regardless of how strong the Atlantic is the pattern can and will change for snow fans in jan

Originally Posted by: nickl 


I don't think there will be a SSW riding to the rescue for January as there was last winter - yes, there is warming and a squeeze on the vortex but doesn't look to be sustained or a promising shape atm; things may change of course.


Originally Posted by: nouska 



with our understanding of the trop/strat relationship still in its infancy, it's tough to know what will cause a to b etc etc, what is if different this season is the ecm ens now model right up to the top of the strat. (Up till last month they only went to 5 hpa). The current warmings are coming right from the top of the strat so we can look forward to the ecm ens giving reasonable guidance in the event that this affects the trop.

I firmly believe this arctic high will be important but I am not sure if the Atlantic jet will allow it to affect our little bit of nw Europe.

Originally Posted by: sriram 


Well, GFS is modelling the strat warming to cover quite an extensive area by the end of the run.  Not especially warm - temperatures around -30C at the end (having reached -20C) but the area is working towards the Pole.  There's a second area over NE Canada as well.


T+6:  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


I read somewhere that retrogression of the strat warming can be an important signal - and the one that ends up over NE Canada retrogresses from north Africa at T+264 and grows/warms as it settles over Canada:


T+264: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-264.png?6


T+324: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-324.png?6


If the trend continues then the second week of January could start to show some more blocked synoptics perhaps?


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin P
22 December 2013 13:16:05

Here's today's video update;


Stormy Christmas - Less Stormy New Year;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Thinking pressure rise's to the north and east should break us out of this stormy spell, but where we actually end up by mid January is anyone's guess - Still at least an end to the severe gales and flooding rain's is in sight.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Polar Low
22 December 2013 13:17:26

The problem we also have also is that heights are always high over central Europe thus it does not allow the trough to dig into E Europe and gain control despite what the pole tells us shown nicely here by gm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1


 


 




What people forget is that last dec was the same as this year and the pattern changed mid jan with snow and freezing cold that lasted till March

Regardless of how strong the Atlantic is the pattern can and will change for snow fans in jan

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I don't think there will be a SSW riding to the rescue for January as there was last winter - yes, there is warming and a squeeze on the vortex but doesn't look to be sustained or a promising shape atm; things may change of course.


Originally Posted by: nickl 



with our understanding of the trop/strat relationship still in its infancy, it's tough to know what will cause a to b etc etc, what is if different this season is the ecm ens now model right up to the top of the strat. (Up till last month they only went to 5 hpa). The current warmings are coming right from the top of the strat so we can look forward to the ecm ens giving reasonable guidance in the event that this affects the trop.

I firmly believe this arctic high will be important but I am not sure if the Atlantic jet will allow it to affect our little bit of nw Europe.

Originally Posted by: nouska 


Well, GFS is modelling the strat warming to cover quite an extensive area by the end of the run.  Not especially warm - temperatures around -30C at the end (having reached -20C) but the area is working towards the Pole.  There's a second area over NE Canada as well.


T+6:  http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


T+384: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-384.png?6


I read somewhere that retrogression of the strat warming can be an important signal - and the one that ends up over NE Canada retrogresses from north Africa at T+264 and grows/warms as it settles over Canada:


T+264: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-264.png?6


T+324: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122206/gfsnh-10-324.png?6


If the trend continues then the second week of January could start to show some more blocked synoptics perhaps?


 


 


Originally Posted by: sriram 

Polar Low
22 December 2013 13:22:09

Cheers Gav



Here's today's video update;


Stormy Christmas - Less Stormy New Year;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Thinking pressure rise's to the north and east should break us out of this stormy spell, but where we actually end up by mid January is anyone's guess - Still at least an end to the severe gales and flooding rain's is in sight.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 13:22:12


The problem we also have also is that heights are always high over central Europe thus it does not allow the trough to dig into E Europe and gain control despite what the pole tells us shown nicely here by gm


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yes, but that's with the current synoptic pattern. If - and it is a big 'if' at this stage - we do get disrpution of the PV and high pressure can develop to our north then the current heights to the south will matter less.  In fact I would expect heights to the north to result at the very least in displacement of the high pressure belt to the south.


We have in all likelihood a couple more weeks of disturbed Atlantic driven weather to 'look forward to' (not...)


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
22 December 2013 13:34:58


A few members backed of a little on that run imo I hope that continues


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=60&mode=0&carte=0


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=60&mode=0&carte=0


mean


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=60&mode=0&carte=0


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


The NAE 06z indicates maximum wind speeds inland of at least Force 6, with Force 7 for coastal counties and Gale force 8, touching Severe Gale 9 on the coast. 


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/daymax/2013/12/22/basis06/ukuk/ismh/01_2206.gif


WRF shows 60-70mph gusts tomorrow afternoon for the SE:


3pm: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm-11-33-0.png?22-11


6pm: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm-11-36-0.png?22-11


with sustained winds around 35-40mph, i.e. Force 7 to Gale 8


3pm: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122206/nmm-3-33-0.png?22-11


6pm:http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122206/nmm-3-36-0.png?22-11


 


 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Charmhills
22 December 2013 13:40:54


Here's today's video update;


Stormy Christmas - Less Stormy New Year;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Thinking pressure rise's to the north and east should break us out of this stormy spell, but where we actually end up by mid January is anyone's guess - Still at least an end to the severe gales and flooding rain's is in sight.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Cheers Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gooner
22 December 2013 14:20:15


Here's today's video update;


Stormy Christmas - Less Stormy New Year;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Thinking pressure rise's to the north and east should break us out of this stormy spell, but where we actually end up by mid January is anyone's guess - Still at least an end to the severe gales and flooding rain's is in sight.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Thanks Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


ARTzeman
22 December 2013 14:43:44

Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
nouska
22 December 2013 15:09:29


What people forget is that last dec was the same as this year and the pattern changed mid jan with snow and freezing cold that lasted till March

Regardless of how strong the Atlantic is the pattern can and will change for snow fans in jan

Originally Posted by: nickl 


I don't think there will be a SSW riding to the rescue for January as there was last winter - yes, there is warming and a squeeze on the vortex but doesn't look to be sustained or a promising shape atm; things may change of course.


Originally Posted by: nouska 



with our understanding of the trop/strat relationship still in its infancy, it's tough to know what will cause a to b etc etc, what is if different this season is the ecm ens now model right up to the top of the strat. (Up till last month they only went to 5 hpa). The current warmings are coming right from the top of the strat so we can look forward to the ecm ens giving reasonable guidance in the event that this affects the trop.

I firmly believe this arctic high will be important but I am not sure if the Atlantic jet will allow it to affect our little bit of nw Europe.

Originally Posted by: sriram 


The bit in bold was what I meant about the shape, the warming from opposite sides is creating extreme elongation on the temp charts and to a lesser extent on the geopotential ones - it is very different to the yin/yang profile seen last year.  I suppose this may lead on to a split rather than displacement but looks at present to be angled to load the cold where it has already been this winter.


The 10mb cchange in the low-res period.


http://i.picasion.com/pic76/051922a1076e349ff11c3b1df4f09c11.gif

Essan
22 December 2013 15:33:25


Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



For rain.   The warnings for wind, for some reason, have not yet been issued ......

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gooner
22 December 2013 15:37:48



Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....


Originally Posted by: Essan 



For rain.   The warnings for wind, for some reason, have not yet been issued ......


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Maybe we are making too much of it?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Essan
22 December 2013 15:42:05




Met Office WARNINGS FOR SOUTH WEST  ARE NOW AMBER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY....


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



For rain.   The warnings for wind, for some reason, have not yet been issued ......


Originally Posted by: Essan 


Maybe we are making too much of it?


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 



No, I don't think so. Though I'm a bit mystified. 

The Chief Forecaster's assessment (which for the life of me I can't now find ... ) clearly referred to winds in the amber area.   And most professional forecasters are talking of this being like the St Jude Storm but for longer and more widespread.  Added to which we have unusually heavy traffic during the daytime.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
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