06z fi is interesting and would be heading in the right direction if it were to verify.

Still very unsettled though.

I don't think the reasonably flat jetstream can be expected to move even further south than it is to allow us to ride over the top of the storms. Just a small amount of WAA in canada would be enough to switch us into severe blocking, the AO is predicted to plummet over coming weeks. But as always those -35 uppers are not budging. 

Very true Neil, I posted yesterday that the storm later in the week covers a much larger area

My parents are meant to be driving back home to the West Country on Friday. I think we may have them for an extra day or two at this rate!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

Temps from the 6z IMBY

7c 5c 4c 10c 6c 7c 8c 7c 5c 4c 2c 1c 1c 1c 1c

Colder than average weather

If only the main centre of LP could push on SE into the Continent and the Med, we would be in business.

ol, but the MetO rely on the ECM32 for guidance and we all know just how woeful that is past 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Do we? You have access to it in its entirety then, not just second- or third-hand comments from those who do? FWIW, the ECM-32 has been pretty good over the past month or so. Yes, it's shown the odd Scandi High which didn't come off - but that's just the control run. 85% or so of the control runs showed unsettled, at times very unsettled and generally mild conditions (average alternating with mild) prevailing through December and into the first week of January and to all intents and purposes that's what we've had / will be getting. That's first-hand info. The second-hand info via Ian Ferguson over on NW, who knows what he's on about, is that the rest of the suite has shown a similarly unsettled outlook - with the Scandinavian High as shown on some of the controls never being supported by the majority of members. As far as the ECM-32 is concerned then yes, the first week or so of January is a write-off in terms of widespread deep cold. There will be the odd colder outlier, as with GEFS, but as yet the bulk of members aren't buying it. If and when a change to colder conditions occurs in ECM-32, you'll hear about it from Ian Ferguson as well as the written forecasts on the Met Office page.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 

Errr, you dont need to have access to its full entirety as the conclusions are there for all to read, and one month of calling the correct signal doesn't make it anymore reliable, as the previous month it was calling for height rises to our NE. In fact if we look at its performance over the last 12 months you'll find that what I'm actually referring to is actually factual, IMO it's no better than seaweed and tea leaves for anything post 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Errr ... you do need access to the original output, because otherwise the "conclusions there for all to read" are just somebody's interpretation: worthless if you can't assess the data from which those conclusions are drawn
E.g., how often have height rises to the north been excitedly tweeted by some of those with access to the ECM32 output, when it turns out they don't understand the difference between a height anomaly and absolute pressure? (A positive height anomaly over Iceland could still be an area of low pressure.)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Errr, Matt Hugo and Ian Ferguson are the the ones who spill the beans, are you implying that they are being economical with the truth?

Dave P; Matty is spot on anything beyond 10 days falls into the realms of witchcraft!

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

No. Not one person has accused anyone of being economical with the truth. Where did you get that from?

The issue is the credibility of individuals when it comes to their understanding of data which we can't see. Like Darren, I have a lot of faith in Ian Fergusson's ability to draw measured conclusions, based on the forecasts he issues to us in the West Country on the BBC.

As it happens, I don't have that degree of faith in Matt Hugo, based on a debate on here between him and Darren, where Hugo seemed unable to concede that his tweets might have been wrongly interpreting positive height anomalies on the ECM32 as signifying high pressure. His defence appeared to be that he had access to information denied to Darren and the rest of us, but which he could not reveal.

But that's just my gut feeling. Without access to the ECM32 I don't know whether I'm right to be suspicious. And that's the whole point.

I agree with that sentiment on the whole - detailed forecasting beyond 10 days is in the realms of witchcraft.

However, the models do spot trends at the range which can give a clue as to the general synoptic pattern, but trying to turn that into specific outcomes in our damp and windy corner is akin to soothsayers.

Summed up nicely there!

Matt's problem was one of inexperience - he fell for the old trap of assuming that positive height anomalies meant a surface high nearby which of course isn't the case all the time, it can often just mean a displaced or weaker surface low. After that was pointed out he changed his story but by then the damage had been done. He didn't take criticism well and that led to a brief but memorable exchange of views on here.

Ian Ferguson, on the other hand, has the training and experience to back that up. When he and Matt Hugo commented on the same ECM-32 run it was notable just how much more restrained Ian was compared to Matt. Ian's comments have backed up what little I can see (it's like peering at the ECM-32 through a smeared pane of glass) which adds extra weight to his view on things IMO. Plus, of course, the Met Office text forecasters provide a useful summary of ECM-32.

FWIW some of the ECM-32 has been made available online, either by mistake or through "freebie" promotions. The URLs tend to be kept secret by those who know them (in the mistake case) as the more they're spread and shared the sooner they get taken down! That said, you can see the ECM-32 for Glasgow here:

http://www.weatherxchange.com/Default.aspx

At the moment you have to pay for anything more than that. You can get a free 30-day trial of Accuweather Pro, for example, which gives you full access to the ECM-32 control run. No ensemble spreads or means, but just having access to the control is nice. They also give you access to the ECM-15 control run as part of their package. Weatherbell has different ECM-15 information, including the ensemble mean and selected charts from the ECM-15 control (not, though, including SLP). Weatherbell offers a free 7-day trial of their service.

ECM-32 isn't infalliable, of course not and it's less likely to be accurate at 32-days than the ECM-15 is at 360 (or even the op at 240). However, when used to pick out trends rather than specifics it's great. It spotted the December 2010 cold spell from early November, for example. It also picked out this unsettled spell of weather a couple of weeks out. In my view it's far better when used by people who know what they're doing than it's given credit for.

Darren, weatherbell does show SLP + anomoly for the ecm control.

if anyone is thinking of using their free 7 day option, better choose the right week !!

And then look where we end up: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

I think we may be in a pattern where the zonality gets cooler and cooler until we're in a wintry phase almost without realising it, rather than any major flip taking us there.

Can you acsess the raw data for the ECM-32?

Perhaps, but there are definite signs of both AO and NAO turning negative in the first week or so of 2014, and the jet stream slowing down significantly. Hopefully this winter really will have a bit of everything.. so far we've ticked off the anticyclonic gloom, the sun, fog and frost, the wind and rain... just the snowfall and extreme cold to go :)

UKMO looking windier than the GFS for more people: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021 

Only the control run (via Accuweather Pro) and the Glasgow data (from WeatherExchange). It's a shame there doesn't seem to be any reasonably-priced way to get more data... but I guess the costs to the providers are extortionate.

Accuweather Pro also gives access to the full ECM 10-day charts - so things such as snow depth, soil temperature etc are included, data which doesn't seem to be available for free. You get similar data from Weatherbell too, although they don't seem to offer quite as many options.

FWIW, this morning's ECM-15 control run just shows low after low after low... every few days and they all seem to bring gales with them for parts of the UK. Not very inspiring TBH, although it does finish off with a toppler at 360.

gfs ensembles seem to show a gradual cooling off into the first week of january,still a fair amount of precipitation aswell, so maybe a chance of snow for upland parts.

The 12z ECM provides more of the same.

The eastern seaboard of the US once again plays the role of cyclogenesis central, with each cold wave surging into the Atlantic kicking off another low pressure system:

The upper cold trough over the eastern US here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-24.GIF?23-0

triggers the low pressure SE of Newfoundland here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-48.GIF?23-0

which develops in 24 hours to this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-72.GIF?23-0

and becomes our Friday storm http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-96.GIF?23-0

Meanwhile the next LP is triggered by the cold uppers leaving the US on the final chart (T+96), which develops to this in mid-Atlantic at T+120: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-120.GIF?23-0

Then another at T+168 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-168.GIF?23-0

And another at T+216: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122312/ECH1-216.GIF?23-0

The final one seems to be taking a more NE track, heading perhaps for southern Greenland instead of straight across the Atlantic.

Good evening from a very stormy West Country. Here is the latest look at the midday outputs from the NWP output for today Monday December 23rd 2013.

All output tonight shows a very intense depression West of the Hebrides with some exceptionally low central pressure readings over the next 12-24 hours as its is shown to move gently North. The spell of torrential rain and severe gales continues across Southern Britain for another 6-9 hours before a clearance from the West later in the night sees wind speeds fall and the rain turn more showery as it turns somewhat colder. In the far NW storm force winds for a time later tonight and at first tomorrow are possible.  All areas are shown to see a windy day tomorrow as the Low still has total influence over all areas tomorrow with a mix of sunshine and squally showers for all. Through Christmas day and Boxing Day the weather relaxes somewhat in a sunshine and showery mix with some welcome relief from strong winds for most. By Friday a new intense Low moves NE close to Western Ireland deepening explosively and returning rain and severe gales once more to all areas through the course of the day. the weekend then becomes rather colder and showery again in a blustery Westerly flow.

GFS then shows a continuation of wet and stormy conditions through the period from the weekend and over the New Year with continued flooding and high wind speeds still very newsworthy at times. Once into the New Year though still very changeable and often wet the weather becomes less stormy and steadily colder at times with some sleet or snow featuring across the UK and not always just over the hills.

UKMO tonight shows Sundays chart with yet another rapidly deepening depression moving NE close to Northern Ireland with severe gales renewed over Southern Britain and heavy, persistent rain sweeping NE to England and Wales through the day.

GEM tonight shows a barrage of Low pressure and strong winds across the UK on the run up to the New Year and some way beyond with an awful lot of rain and periods of very strong winds the main ingredients of the weather with academically average temperatures throughout.

NAVGEM too shows no let up in the windy and very wet weather at times from Christmas out to New Years Eve at least.

ECM also shows very changeable and often wet and windy weather well into the New Year though the intensity of the wind may reduce somewhat as we move into 2014.

The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions continuing throughout with wet weather at times for all. The very worst of the rain may lessen with time. The colder weather that develops from the operational late in the run is not well supported by other members of the ensemble group.

The Jet Stream continues to power Eastward over the Atlantic and around the British Isles throughout the run with the usual oscillating pattern North then South very indicative of very changeable and stormy weather.

In Summary there is still a lot of support for a lot more very strong winds and heavy rain for a good while yet before things improve somewhat. It is unlikely that any improvement of note in the current pattern will take place this side of the New Year and with a very strong Jet Stream in conjunction with stark temperature contrasts over the States showing little signs of relenting the pattern could well last out towards the middle of January before any significant change arrives.

It sound good timing for me to see very cold weather when I go there.   A row of solid fences from a nearby house was blown down from the recent storm and it pointless to fix it if more stormy weather to come from the latest models.  I think by Feb it will blow out eventually with early Spring warmth if zonal pattern move north, or very cold late snowy spell while N America warm up eventually as I can't see them staying solid cold for 3-4 months non-stop?