Gentlemen, the meto update states late in January. That can have nothing to do with ECM (either extended or 32 dayer cos that isn't wintry), or mogreps-15. It can only be their strat model predicting a sig warming post mid month and a the possibility of a quick response downwelling into the trop. that is a fairly tenuous probablity

6c here so significantly colder would take itdown to 1 or 2c IMO

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December 28 + 32 days = 29th January. That's "late in January", is it not?

The text forecasts on the Met Office site use a mix of MOGREPS-15, ECM-15, ECM-32 and DECIDER (which is a way of clustering the 32-day and 15-day ensemble output).

I assume you have full access to ECM-32 then to say with certainty it doesn't show any wintriness? Thought not!

It's important to note that cold, blocked scenarios are of course very much in the minority at the moment - but there's enough of them for the MetO to mention it as a possibility. That's really all there is to it at the moment!

 

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Okay, fair enough you look at stuff us mere mortals can't see.

But the point is: how can you be so certain that an easterly is the only possible reason for MetO thinking there is a chance it might turn a bit colder later in January    And how can you be certain that even if all the models pointed to this happening in 25 days time, that they are right?   Because they always are at that range? 

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I've seen the 51 member ens run and it ain't wintry. Of course there could be some cold members in there but if so, why not mention the possibilities yesterday?

I'm a mere mortal myself. I just happen to go out there and get as much info as I can, rather than just relying on what others say, or what charts are easily available.

I have a free trial to Accuweather Pro which has some - but by no means all, or even most - of the ECM-32 output. Anyone with a credit card can sign up for the free trial - it's well worth doing if, like me, you want access to as much as you can. You can also get free access to Glasgow ECM-32 data from here.

Easy, I've been reading what Ian's been posting and looking at the ECM-32 and ECM-15 data that I have access to each day. You can get access to it too and NW is only a click or two away - it's not some magic source, it's available to everyone.

If you read my posts rather than making more assumptions(!) you'd see that your second question is completely irrelevant, as I've never said nor implied that.

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The full run, yes? As in out to T+768? In which case, you'll have seen that there are some colder members in there. Not many, but enough to be worth a mention (as per yesterday). If you have access to ECM-15 you'll note that there are slightly more colder runs by day 15 than there were yesterday, hence the change in emphasis.

The Met Office just report based on what their ensembles (that's ECM-15, ECM-32 and MOGREPS-15) are saying. If they've changed the wording on cold when ECM-32 hasn't updated, then all it means is that ECM-15 and/or MOGREPS-15 have changed a bit since the previous forecast.

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Please chaps - keep on topic.

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Eh? This is on topic - we're discussing what the ensembles show and, in the face of those who are unaware of what's out there, pointing to sites which contain the ECM ensembles that we all want to see.

In fact, I might as well post some links all in one post so that people can see what's out there and make their own minds up - it's always the best way, rather than just relying on second-hand info.

As it stands, there is a small but noteworthy chance of a colder change by mid-Jan. The ECM-15 has been showing a cold cluster for a few runs now and ECM-32 has several cold runs in it too. The current 0z ECM-15 has a control run which shows an easterly developing by day 15, whereas Thursday's ECM-32 had a control run which just showed zonality out to day 32. This mirrors what we're seeing in GEFS, too, with a small number of runs showing a switch to a colder solution. Both GEFS and ECM-15 show SW'lies being the dominant wind direction but between 10 and 15% of GEFS and ECM-15 runs show an easterly developing.

Or, in short - unsettled conditions are still the most likely outcome for the next two weeks BUT there's also a 10-15% chance of a switch to much colder conditions. It's been that way for a couple of days and I'm sure most on here will be keeping an eye on the models to see whether that probability increases over the next few days.

And so, onto the links for those who were unware - please bookmark these and use them!

MOGREPS-15 - Days 1 to 5 - Met Office (enter a location, then click Temp Range)

Days 6 to 10 - BBC Weather (enter a postcode, then click the next 5 days link)

ECM-15 - London ensembles (temperature, wind, rain)

SW Netherlands ensembles (temperature, rain, dewpoint, cloud cover, wind direction and strength)

De Bilt ensembles (temperature, rain, snow, wind)

Days 6 - 10 Ensemble mean charts

Days 6 - 10 Ensemble spread charts

(Pay site with 1 week free trial) ensemble mean charts

(Pay site with 1 month free trial) ensemble control charts

ECM-32 - Glasgow ensembles (temperature, rain)

(Pay site with 1 month free trial) ensemble control charts

Weatherbell may have ECM-32 data as well, but it was unavailable during my free trial.

It's worth checking ECMWF's website too. They sometimes offer the 15-day Reading ensembles or 5-day ECM-15 postage stamps. (Click the thumbnail top left of the homepage)

 

 

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 What the ...!?

 

I've just been reading the most on-topic couple of pages of discussion ever on the Model Output thread.

Thanks to everyone for helping nail down what can justifiably and plausibly be extracted by us amateurs from long-range model outputs.

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The assumptions being made here are that what a few runs at very extreme FI range show is likely to happen - and that those questioning this are wrong  

(It may happen,we may even get the fabled beasterly, but at this stage there is nothing in model output to say that it will happen - and a run of northerlies, or even increasingly cold northwestelies - are just as likely IMO)

Worth noting that after a mild December and with model output showing nothing particularly cold at this stage for early January, the chances are that late Jan or Feb could well see colder weather than we've seen so far this winter (it being traditionally the coldest period of the year).   That's stating the obvious without needing to look at any model output! 

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I am sure Gavin was referring to us reverting to the usual straw clutching, hot air tripe of previous threads! LOL
Good read folks, there is a small chance of cold conditions developing, but then again there's also a small chance of the earth being hit by a comet of monsterous proportions rendering all meteorological forecasts useless anyways!
Reasonably mild and wet sums it up for me, and until we see something different approach reasonable timeframes then that's how it stays

I have to agree. And thanks for the links, Darren.

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Don't look at extended CFS FULL STOP.

I am convinced CFS stands for complete fanatsy scenarios.

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I've made it clear time and time again that the easterly option is only a small chance and backed up my statement with links, model info and analysis. Nobody else seems to have been expecting it to happen either, so I really don't know where you're going with this one. I'll leave you to it, I think, as you have your own views which are different to what the models are actually showing.

Meanwhile the 12z GEFS is rolling out - to 180 as of writing this - and the thing that strikes me most is the upper low forecast to be over or very near the UK in around half of the runs. Not good news generally, as it would mean further deluges and widespread gales. It's a notable change from the 6z ensembles, which only had around a third showing a deep upper low over or near the UK, the majority showed a more zonal upper flow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=180&code=0&mode=0&carte=

I would expect an easterly or two in the extended ensembles, continuing the trend from the past couple of days (the trend being to have a small chance of an easterly, not a trend towards increasing the chance of an easterly).

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-300.png?12

The Block to the East is always lurking

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Absolutely straight westeries after 108 with direct flow from N America and looking at 850's uppers the very cold pooling just died out before reaching Ireland, it doesn't become very cold again if enter landfall since Ireland and UK doesn't develop own cold pooling.  I am sure many flights from N America would take this flow to reach Europe much faster while flights going there have to go north then turn west sharply to follow the northern flank of the LP.  I watched that on my wife's flight path on 23rd Dec which took very north to Scotland then toward Greenland then sharp turn SW ward as it following the LP northern flow which arrived to batter the UK overnight.

Agree with Kevin re: CFS. Picking out trends can be difficult but CFS is awful imho.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

An unsettled picture throughout but a few tentative and continuing signs of a change mid month. Looks like ample rainfall for London which can only mean the more prone areas to the W and N are in for a soaking. A definate trend for cooler weather and so some wintry ppn at times on the higher ground and no doubt, some transitional sleet/wet snow at lower levels within that mess.

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Yes ok please No Not a Surprise!.

Taken a balanced view of GFS 12z and the UKMO 12z runs, we look SET for a lot of heavy rain and strong winds associated with the Wide spread N Atlantic and UK PV mass area of Low Pressure, yes there is a few pockets of Milder wedges, but Equally there is Colder Temps bot at 500hPa and the T850hPa levels and that bring cold temps at the surface as well as higher up.

That means there is a good mix of Snow or Rain and some Hail and Sleet in the next 7 days.

Best Wishes for the New Year to all.

NB this Strat warming Episode is in full swing and it appears that the Scandy High is in the picture and inside GFS - Blocking High for W Europe spreads from Scandy in about 10 days time - next Friday and Saturday cold and Wintry active NW airflow, a ridge following Sunday after that, then a 4 day period of WSW to ENE across N Atlantic from Centre and Through the UK, in the Week after it- with a few mild sectors, then A PV Split with Deep mid to far NW Central n Atlantic Low P, and a Deep PV low heads across N and NE of Azores Isles, so it could help high pressure over Scandy to link to Developing UK Anticyclone and make a Cold Block high across N W and mid to NE Europe, while a Deep low from Iceland later could head to Norwegian Sea and to our Arctic Sea NE of UK in Norwegian Sea far NE Atlantic.

This may be at 11-13 Jan timeframe, and a Cold vs Mild area could form over Cemtral N USA and E NE USA as High pressure blocking forms West and North and PV low's move West and NW from the Central N Atlantic to into Newfounfland and the WAA form there right Low P also to SW Greenland around that time.

The Arctic Cold Pool will inflate as the High pressure builds up over Icelqnd and the UK- we could bring Northerly winds down from our North towards Week 2 and 3 of January 2013- Southerly Tracking low's to Britain from Svalbard and OR Denmark Netherlands with both cold air flow from North and the East is qiute possible, having a chance of Deflecting the Atlantic Low Pressure belt to Spain and the Meditteranean.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-324.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-336.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-348.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-360.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-372.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?12

The control shows how it could turn out, yes a colder option but still a possibility

 

 

 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122812/ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

High Pressure to the East looks much stronger, probably wont get there this time but at least it is being picked up

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A fascinating debate.  Thanks to Darren and Andy for their sparring.  Classic TWO M.O.D.

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Still nothing for a while at least. So much for the coldest and snowiest winter in 700 years.... 

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Looking at the available data late January into February may be the best option (hope!) of anything cold at the moment - as in Gavin's excellent video with the stratosphere so abnormally cold there's no end in sight to the strong jet. Perhaps a sudden warming event may come to our rescue but I am looking to February realistcally lookng at the current output, especially as no SSW event is predicted at the moment.

Too early to call it a mild winter but if nothing changes it may well end up being a  retro 90's winter!

Yes I agree, do you think its too early to call a mild (or at least not below average) january though? For there to be enough time to give us a cold spell by late january, we really would have to see a SSW event appearing on the models soon (for there to be a caustive link between the two ofc). Perhaps that HP over newfoundland in FI might bring some more interesting model watching, it might help to warm things up a bit and stop the rampaging cyclogenesis. 

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