So much time left yet , I will be interested to see how December turns out, IMO I don't think it has been 'that' mild here

Thats better Marcus much better another little adjustment and we could see cold much earlier than thought

The ensemble mean from the ECM 12z at T+240 shows the main low pressure centred north of Scotland with a shallower one between NE Canada and Greenland:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122812/EDH1-240.GIF?28-0

Interestingly the spread chart suggests good agreement across the ensemble members for the location and intensity of the LP north of Scotland, with suprisingly low values in that area and northwards through Iceland to eastern Greenland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122812/EEH1-240.GIF?28-0

Who said it would be that? 

Re CFS, it may be poor overall, but I will say it was incredibly insistent and consistent in picking up the March cold/snowy spell earlier this year, from many weeks ahead.

Yes Peter but look at the adjustment ecm opp has made since this morning

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&archive=1&mois=12&heure=0&jour=28&annee=2013

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

one more adjustment and she will be in

 Yes - and one or two were starting to get into arguments on that - that's all I meant - that's all.

Nothing too exciting here as yet if you're looking for a cold spell.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Hmm - I might become a bit interested in this. A very rapid warming at 10hPa above Iceland just appearing in the far end of the charts now - one could say 'sudden' maybe. Has the MetO picked up on this in their lon grange forecasts? Will it be significant enough to propogate and promote HLB?
Answers as always on a postcard.

Little more than speculation on my part, but I wonder if this is linked with the Met Office's tentative forecast of a potentially cold spell late January.  The Met Office indicates that the north would bear the brunt of any such cold (if it does indeed occur).... that indicates an arctic, as opposed to a siberian, source to me.   That would be consistent with the polar vortex being displaced western Canada to the area of lower strat temps, allowing mid-high latitude blocking around the Atlantic, which would be consistent with a northerly arctic outbreak.... I stress this is highly speculative on my part, and my knowledge of SSWs (if indeed this counts as one) is very limited.

Andrew

Hi Andrew , I didnt think there was any indication from the Met O as to where any significant colder weather would occur just that it might, why do you think the North??

Some more interesting options showing up in the 18z ENS

Short on postcards....

I was surprised to see the sudden warming on our side of the Pole on the 18z.  I'd like to see it modelled consistently for a few runs before getting too enthusiastic.    Certainly it seems to be in a much better location if it is to disrupt the PV and introduce an Arctic flow - if we get heights to rise in the troposphere in response then the jet gets deflected and that opens up the possiblity of a Scandi high instead or as well as a Greenland one.

The 12z ECM ensemble for London shows a continuing theme:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

There has been a noticeable decline in the mild scatter beyond Day 10 and there are still two main clusters - one producing average conditions (max 7C, min 2-3C) and one indicating cold weather (max 2-3C, min -2 to -3C)

In contrast with yesterday's 12z, GFS today threw up a much milder option for the Op, an outlier on 2 days in FI.

Even if it is, late january at the earliest? Half of winter will be gone. 

When did the exceptional winter of 1947 start?

3 weeks into January.

it started on 20th jan here last Winter Q

Very wet and very stormy output for the next 7-10 days following a study of the output this morning. Any thoughts of diluted zonality and a weakening of the PV seems to have receded in the last couple of days.

There are emerging stronger signals for a huge Russian block to start forming acting as a large inpenetrable balloon in the atmosphere to our east and north east. At this stage the consequence of such of a block is to essentially stall or slow the progression eastwards of angry weather fronts over the UK.

The consequences of which are looking dire for the UK in terms of storminess and flooding.

Any snow limited to northern high ground at times.

Indeed. As long as that extreme cold air keeps flooding off the eastern seaboard, there is no way out for us for another 2 weeks.

the  alarm bells should be ringing if the  models are right  for jan 6=7 with that monster heading for the southeast of the uk let pray for no more upgrades

Hi everyone. Here is today's look at the 12 midnight outputs from my perspective for today Sunday December 29th 2013.

All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing quickly East over the UK today followed by an active frontal system moving equally quickly East later today and tonight with rain and SW gales returning tonight. Tomorrow shows the front having cleared all but the far SE with a strong WSW flow and scattered showers but the rain may hang on for some while in the SE. On New Years Eve another set of troughs spill East off the Atlantic crossing the UK with further rain and strong winds for a time before New Years Day is ushered in on the back of a strong WSW wind and showers, some heavy and prolonged. Throughout this period all models suggest average temperatures offset by the wind.

GFS then takes us through the start of 2014 showing Low pressure after Low pressure crossing The Atlantic and the British Isles throughout the period bulldozed along by a very powerful Jet Stream over the Atlantic. This means incessant periods of wind and rain alternating with short drier and more showery weather when thing become a little colder at times. Winds are always very brisk and sometimes very strong with gales or severe gales at times. Even by the very last frames of the run the pattern remains the same with little evidence of any cessation to the prolonged, unsettled wet and windy spell.

UKMO closes it's output this morning at Day 6 with Low pressure well established up to the NW of the UK with a strong and unstable SW flow littered with troughs, each delivering their own version of wet and windy spells as they cross East in the flow. Temperatures look very close to average for all.

GEM today is much the same with little of any evidence to support any drier and colder weather lasting for any length of time before the next Low pressure returns wet and windy weather across all areas between the short drier and sometimes chillier interludes.

NAVGEM shows a strong Jet flow too propelling Low pressure after Low pressure across the North Atlantic with troughs swept quickly East and NE in the strong SW flow with rain and showers continuing for all areas out to the end of the run.

ECM also maintains a strong Jet stream rushing over the Atlantic spawning frequent development of Low pressures winding up to the North of the UK with strong winds and heavy rain carried East in the flow then followed by sunshine and showers with any ridge development flattened quickly by the strength of the overriding Jet flow. Temperatures will be largely close to average for early January.

The GFS Ensembles in general maintain their Atlantic driven status this morning throughout their run with spells of rain at times in average temperatures, Low pressure to the North and NW and strong winds at times.

The Jet Stream as already mentioned remains very strong and blowing due West to East across the Atlantic towards France and Southern England. It strengthens even further towards next weekend while maintaining a collision course with the UK. It then in the unreliable time limits show signs of weakening somewhat and drifting towards the North.

In Summary today the outlook remains one of frequent periods of wet and windy weather when local flooding events are likely to make News headlines as there seems little respite in this sustained period of Atlantic driven weather. Some of the rain will be heavy and prolonged with gale or severe gale force winds at times making for some very unpleasant conditions. Brief ridges are shown by all models to temporarily quieten the weather but none last much more than 24 hours before the next rain event driven by a very strong Jet Stream arrives. With regard to the way out of this period of wet and windy weather it is hard to find anything significant that could change the pattern from today's output but if there was a way it looks like it would most likely arise from a ridging North of the Azores High over the Atlantic hinted at by some of the output in their latter stages but for this to be accomplished we need to see a much weaker Jet Stream at the United States end to enable this process to take place and currently that looks unlikely within the next few weeks.