Please chaps - keep on topic.
Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger
Eh? This is on topic - we're discussing what the ensembles show and, in the face of those who are unaware of what's out there, pointing to sites which contain the ECM ensembles that we all want to see.
In fact, I might as well post some links all in one post so that people can see what's out there and make their own minds up - it's always the best way, rather than just relying on second-hand info.
As it stands, there is a small but noteworthy chance of a colder change by mid-Jan. The ECM-15 has been showing a cold cluster for a few runs now and ECM-32 has several cold runs in it too. The current 0z ECM-15 has a control run which shows an easterly developing by day 15, whereas Thursday's ECM-32 had a control run which just showed zonality out to day 32. This mirrors what we're seeing in GEFS, too, with a small number of runs showing a switch to a colder solution. Both GEFS and ECM-15 show SW'lies being the dominant wind direction but between 10 and 15% of GEFS and ECM-15 runs show an easterly developing.
Or, in short - unsettled conditions are still the most likely outcome for the next two weeks BUT there's also a 10-15% chance of a switch to much colder conditions. It's been that way for a couple of days and I'm sure most on here will be keeping an eye on the models to see whether that probability increases over the next few days.
And so, onto the links for those who were unware - please bookmark these and use them!
MOGREPS-15 - Days 1 to 5 - Met Office (enter a location, then click Temp Range)
Days 6 to 10 - BBC Weather (enter a postcode, then click the next 5 days link)
ECM-15 - London ensembles (temperature, wind, rain)
SW Netherlands ensembles (temperature, rain, dewpoint, cloud cover, wind direction and strength)
De Bilt ensembles (temperature, rain, snow, wind)
Days 6 - 10 Ensemble mean charts
Days 6 - 10 Ensemble spread charts
(Pay site with 1 week free trial) ensemble mean charts
(Pay site with 1 month free trial) ensemble control charts
ECM-32 - Glasgow ensembles (temperature, rain)
(Pay site with 1 month free trial) ensemble control charts
Weatherbell may have ECM-32 data as well, but it was unavailable during my free trial.
It's worth checking ECMWF's website too. They sometimes offer the 15-day Reading ensembles or 5-day ECM-15 postage stamps. (Click the thumbnail top left of the homepage)
Edited by user
28 December 2013 16:14:42
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