Cheers Gav.

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Thanks Gavin, sounds interesting!

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It's traditional "As the days grow longer / So the cold gets stronger"

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thank you Gavin - nice to see some good news for once

Most people are probably sick to death of this Atlantic train - about time we saw something wintery

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I recall that at this time last year, many regular posters here were sick to the back teeth of the atlantic zonality we had then, not least because of all the flooding issues it was causing at that time. In my experience it would be almost unprecedented for the strong zaonality we have seen recently to go on unabated from now until late February. Even famous mild, zonal & sometimes stormy winters from the recent past, e.g 1988/89, 1989/90 and 2006/07 to name three, had quieter periods at times.

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short but sharp northerly blast on GFS.

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Fairly different GFS 12z run so far in terms of PV energy.

Either a new trend to pick up on more energy, which then takes a slightly more northerly route than of late with the jet* to sit over the UK rather than under it, or a bit of an outlier. Will need to check the ens to see. Further out and at least the jet wanders back south again but still loads of energy wandering about the atlantic and the blocking to the east seemingly on the retreat.

I guess the worry in the current pattern is the glimmers of hope in FI are mirages caused by the lack of resolution being able to cope with all the energy spawning things off the eastern seaboard. As it gets closer the extra energy gets correctly factored in and any possible change to colder more settled weather disapears for a while again.

Edit: *Just relooking at the run again and the jet only buckles up over for for a couple of days so bit misleading that comment. It's still generally south of us but all too much energy around still for any blocking to get near us or develop

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I'd happily take that right now, few little flirts may be what it takes to break the current trend.

JFF http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=00&VAR=weas&HH=162&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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Look at how the stratosphere is forecast to develop, could be very interesting further down the line if this sustained itself

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122912/gfsnh-10-384.png?12

It is feeling Mild as well as chilly or a bit cold at times, GFS 12z maintains that next 10 days are set to Central N and NW and NE Atlantic PV Low with associated revolving Shortwave frontal rain and gales systems, both chilly to average and a bit mild temperature ranges next 10 days, with a few cold interludes in attendance.

Greenland High, W N and E NE USA PV Short Waves Low's are shown , same in the W N Pacific right across NE Canada where cold air main PV Vortex sits throughout period, same system N NW and Mid to NE Atlantic through Northern Europe's outer sides, Pressure High in E Central NE Europe.

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Much interest in is what GFS has programmed for the period 8th to the 15th Jan. 2014. There is large West N Atlantic High Pressure sent from SE Canada but there is PV Low pressure Systems that are going over it and Originate from NW USA Pacific NW and NE - affecting the UK with winds from a mild West SW and some Waves of Cold air with them travelling through portion of Mid and NE USA States especially Central NW to NE Canada and cutting SE through NE of Newfoundland SW Greenland as they cross UK and NW to N Europe during that period we see it get quite cold enough for Sleet and snow showers for parts of UK as NNW winds come in, but there are some milder phases with spells of rain as well on some days.

Greenland high and SE Canada to West N Atlantic High also helps drag in cold waves from SE Greenland- this is a product effect of Stratospheric Warming, but with a changeable Pattern in the North Atlantic affect the UK weather in that specific time.

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