Hi everyone. Here is today's look at the 12 midnight outputs from my perspective for today Sunday December 29th 2013.
All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing quickly East over the UK today followed by an active frontal system moving equally quickly East later today and tonight with rain and SW gales returning tonight. Tomorrow shows the front having cleared all but the far SE with a strong WSW flow and scattered showers but the rain may hang on for some while in the SE. On New Years Eve another set of troughs spill East off the Atlantic crossing the UK with further rain and strong winds for a time before New Years Day is ushered in on the back of a strong WSW wind and showers, some heavy and prolonged. Throughout this period all models suggest average temperatures offset by the wind.
GFS then takes us through the start of 2014 showing Low pressure after Low pressure crossing The Atlantic and the British Isles throughout the period bulldozed along by a very powerful Jet Stream over the Atlantic. This means incessant periods of wind and rain alternating with short drier and more showery weather when thing become a little colder at times. Winds are always very brisk and sometimes very strong with gales or severe gales at times. Even by the very last frames of the run the pattern remains the same with little evidence of any cessation to the prolonged, unsettled wet and windy spell.
UKMO closes it's output this morning at Day 6 with Low pressure well established up to the NW of the UK with a strong and unstable SW flow littered with troughs, each delivering their own version of wet and windy spells as they cross East in the flow. Temperatures look very close to average for all.
GEM today is much the same with little of any evidence to support any drier and colder weather lasting for any length of time before the next Low pressure returns wet and windy weather across all areas between the short drier and sometimes chillier interludes.
NAVGEM shows a strong Jet flow too propelling Low pressure after Low pressure across the North Atlantic with troughs swept quickly East and NE in the strong SW flow with rain and showers continuing for all areas out to the end of the run.
ECM also maintains a strong Jet stream rushing over the Atlantic spawning frequent development of Low pressures winding up to the North of the UK with strong winds and heavy rain carried East in the flow then followed by sunshine and showers with any ridge development flattened quickly by the strength of the overriding Jet flow. Temperatures will be largely close to average for early January.
The GFS Ensembles in general maintain their Atlantic driven status this morning throughout their run with spells of rain at times in average temperatures, Low pressure to the North and NW and strong winds at times.
The Jet Stream as already mentioned remains very strong and blowing due West to East across the Atlantic towards France and Southern England. It strengthens even further towards next weekend while maintaining a collision course with the UK. It then in the unreliable time limits show signs of weakening somewhat and drifting towards the North.
In Summary today the outlook remains one of frequent periods of wet and windy weather when local flooding events are likely to make News headlines as there seems little respite in this sustained period of Atlantic driven weather. Some of the rain will be heavy and prolonged with gale or severe gale force winds at times making for some very unpleasant conditions. Brief ridges are shown by all models to temporarily quieten the weather but none last much more than 24 hours before the next rain event driven by a very strong Jet Stream arrives. With regard to the way out of this period of wet and windy weather it is hard to find anything significant that could change the pattern from today's output but if there was a way it looks like it would most likely arise from a ridging North of the Azores High over the Atlantic hinted at by some of the output in their latter stages but for this to be accomplished we need to see a much weaker Jet Stream at the United States end to enable this process to take place and currently that looks unlikely within the next few weeks.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset