Strongest warming yet modelled for the Strat on this latest run, with temps reaching 0C over Greenland by the end, with the strat vortex well and truly split down the middle. Could be a very interesting second half to the winter if this does indeed verify. Long way to go yet, though I tend to find that strat forecasting into the medium and long range seem more reliable.
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
I seem to recall a few people commenting during the course of last week that at that time, there didn't appear to be any SSW event likely anytime in the near future. Has this projected warming only just began appearing?
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
David, for over a week the GFS model has been showing gradual warming on the Asian side of the Pole, i.e. building 'warmth' over several days, getting up to -20 to -30C. Then, a few days ago another area of warming started to appear on the Atlantic side, again quite gradual and reaching similar values.
Both of these have appeared in some form since but today's run is, I think, the first time that we've seen anything 'sudden': this run shows 60C of warming in 6 days, 50C in 5 days. I think from the textbook definition it's still not truly 'sudden' as I think this needs to be over 2-3 days.
The previous charts have all shown the PV being squeezed but this is the first time that the warming on both sides has been sufficient to split it.
Originally Posted by: ITSY