Greatly missed in winter for sure. Certainly made the met offices life more comfortable when he went on his extended vacation

Didn't he move down under???

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Indeed he did and solely missed ever since.

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: January – March 2014 Issue date: 19.12.13
The forecast presented here is for January and the average of the January-February-March period for the United Kingdom
as a whole. The forecast for January will be superseded by the long-range information on the public weather forecast
web page (www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=regionalForecast), starting from 30th December 2013.

This appeared with the contingency forecast.Presumably it is today superceded by  by the current outlook to up to January 28th?

Staying mild by the look of things.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=regionalForecast

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He did pop back last year for a brief period and a dozen or so posts in mid-Jan at the height of the cold spell... Understandably a bit smug at his 'prophecies' becoming reality!

PS he's in NZ apparently

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The moment a sudden stratospheric warming actually did take place, I can imagine a Strat Model Output thread descending into a chaos of "that-belongs-on-the-main-Model-Output-thread"-style recriminations. 

I mean, unless you're buying fuel for jet airliners, the only interest in stratospheric model output is how it affects and/or is affected by what happens at the surface. By separating the threads, I don't think either discussion would benefit.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013123012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17 

Stormy UKMO 12z and GFS (especially next Sun/Mon)

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Strongest warming yet modelled for the Strat on this latest run, with temps reaching 0C over Greenland by the end, with the strat vortex well and truly split down the middle. Could be a very interesting second half to the winter if this does indeed verify. Long way to go yet, though I tend to find that strat forecasting into the medium and long range seem more reliable.

Well on the back of that here comes the reds Gavin was talking about in his latest video:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=10&carte=1

Another few hours on and the vortex looks set to split?

All FI of course and may not happen - in the meantime let's hope this doesn't happen:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0

Not a welcome present for most people returning to work.

 

 

I seem to recall a few people commenting during the course of last week that at that time, there didn't appear to be any SSW event likely anytime in the near future. Has this projected warming only just began appearing?

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Some colder weather appearing in the CFS for the first time in a while

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013123000/run1m/cfsnh-0-1074.png?00

 

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That does look potentially very significant were it to come off!

Re. Tom Presutti, I would love to get him to do a page/blog on my website, but alas so far we've not managed to get it together.

But there is always hope.

Will be interesting to see whether the daily CFS starts responding to these stratospheric developments over the next week or so, particularly in relation to it's February forecast.

Current Feb 700mbr anomaly looks like this;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

Wonder how that may evolve over the next month?

 

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David, for over a week the GFS model has been showing gradual warming on the Asian side of the Pole, i.e. building 'warmth' over several days, getting up to -20 to -30C.    Then, a few days ago another area of warming started to appear on the Atlantic side, again quite gradual and reaching similar values.   

Both of these have appeared in some form since but today's run is, I think, the first time that we've seen anything 'sudden': this run shows 60C of warming in 6 days, 50C in 5 days.  I think from the textbook definition it's still not truly 'sudden' as I think this needs to be over 2-3 days.

The previous charts have all shown the PV being squeezed but this is the first time that the warming on both sides has been sufficient to split it.

 

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Until a few days ago only hints and speculation, but the modeled warming is now gathering momentum with the warmest projections yet today - positive side of zero propagating lower than 10hPa by the end of the run.

Having stated that I am an SSW v effect on PV sceptic, I'm only reporting the data

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Here is a model run from the edge of reliability - 6 days ahead from GFS.  Another Atlantic Storm beckons.

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There is those of you having so much to talk about as far as what is not really what the subject mean to each group and quoting about how we are getting this and that- right now and as has been for two and a half weeks and more of Storms of wind and rain with Deep PV Low Pressure to come with short waves features added in good measure, heavy showers with wintry falls or thunder and hail also in the mix- It is good advice to take good rest at home on your couches or have nice warm cups of tea, and enjoy whatever you like watching favourite TV news and dramas etc.

All this talk and every day Model Output Looking is the same outcome for a long time- we are seeing this winter a very long impression on our testing of our brains abilities to give us much choice what to say and do- the Storms need watching and the WEATHER type time wasting talks about imagine this Stratospheric Warming have any role at all to change our weather- putting up charts of Fantastical Long Rangers or matching this years good and bad to this and that- and what the High and Low or Temp. range are being affecting what and where and how- Watching or Talking about stuff that is way better than the UK Weather ups and downs- there is or must always be people who can take our active and rich in Storms weather in their playful minds and just make the most of the exacting happy effects of active Atlantic weather in our daily chit chatters instead- not get angry about the bad or odd parts it brings.

Just be able to ride them about and do what you are best at doing and try to help those who are having a difficult time handling the floods and tree damage etc power cuts it brings with it- we all live in different parts of the UK so some get snow and the blizzards which can be bad as well, watch good TV and be kind to everyone- the weather in the first half of January is set for Atlantic Storms and Depressions- when it briefly turns lighter in between then maybe just celebrate those Sunny breaks by sharing some better stuff in life and give and take it with those we like sharing with- there is no Sudden Stratospheric Warming affecting the North Atlantic that is quite the real view that will last for at least first 12 days of January 2013.

Rest your finicky minds and improve your routines.

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Classic post Laiq!

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Yes thats right. Its not a 'sudden' warming event as in 2009 for example, but its fairly rapid by any reasonable definition. Still a few days away at least before it can start to enter the reliable timeframe, even for the stratosphere (which tends to be less bipolar than down here in our wild world), but it certainly looks interesting. The last couple of runs have split the upper level vortex almost completely, so with time we would hope that it would start to propegate downwards somewhere or another. If it keeps on track then we could expect to see some more wintry intrigue in the lower level model output in the next couple of weeks or so. Hopefully.

The warming on the GFS would still be classified as a minor event, not a major as the 10hpa winds are still westerly. So this needs to be beared in mind. 

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I'll have some of whatever Laiq is on!!!!

Thats true, and although I'm no expert in the least, I wonder how much more pressure the strat could take before the mean wind flipped over. (and also, where can we find the 10hpa wind forecast)?

I just can not see much in any cold weather fans interests after I check the GFS in particular- It is best to spend more time trying to chat outside the Model Output Discussion as what those see and comment on is not that a good effect on their self well being this is because the Atlantic GFS PV Low Pressure and their short waves and brief high pressure ridges they bring to the UK and much of Europe mentally speaking needs to have it's place on this discussion - we should take time of in sharing such jittery and optimism reducing effects with others chats about this Model Output weather charts as it is best to call it a day as week in week out the WEATHER is not very settled - it will change but the time of the change should be when our discussion on it should mean better discussion Model wise but decent Winter Model Discussion requires this Atlantic Zonality SHIP requiring some good shifting - which- week in and week out they the GFS and UKMO and the ECMWF are not able to change for us- that reduces our confidence and we should be able to ride this out by enciuraging people to not moan and disappoint each other in terms of forecasts of the oddities our British and American Weather brings!.

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Just put together the broad temperature forecast for the period  as per mentions in the Meo forecast today;

1st -3rd Jan-No mention but looks slightly above normal from weather types.

4-13th Jan-Weekend near normal rest of period becoming near normal or rather cold.

14th -28th Less mild than first half of January with possibility of colder weatherlater in month.

This would seem to deliver a close to normal or slightly below normal overall for January??

 

Thanks for your explanation Peter.

It's long way ahead of course, but there does now seem to be at least a possibility (a small one but a possiblity nonetheless) of a change in pattern when we get to mid-January or beyond that. I think the model output could get quite interesting not long from now.

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