Good evening. Here is the last report of the 300 or so I have produced through 2013. It is taken from my website using as usual the data supplied by the NWP for Tuesday December 31st 2013.
All models maintain the unsettled and sometimes thoroughly wet and windy conditions over the next week or so as Low pressure continues to move into the UK from the Atlantic repeatedly over the next 7 days or so with strong to gale SW or West winds on occasion. Temperatures will stay largely close to average with some short colder slots when some of the showery spells could produce some snow over the higher hills at times.
GFS shows a drier interlude as more of a ridge crosses West to East over the middle of next week with some drier and brighter weather for all areas before the weather slides back downhill again late next week and through the latter stages of the run. With higher pressure closer to the South than of late the rain amounts would lessen overall with the heaviest and most persistent precipitation reverting towards more NW areas in temperatures close to average for early to mid January.
UKMO shows deep Low pressure just off NW Scotland next Monday with a strong to gale force WSW flow over Britain with rain or showers affecting all areas through the early part of next week in average temperatures.
GEM shows pressure building next week after the deep Low early in the week steadily fills. Early heavy rains at the beginning of the week die out steadily later with dry and brighter conditions while maintaining basically quite average temperatures but with an increased risk of night frost.
NAVGEM also shows Low pressure up to the North slow moving and filling steadily next week so that by soon after midweek the weather becomes less wet with showers dying back towards western coasts as High pressure builds to the Southwest and Southeast.
ECM tonight shows a transformation tonight with pressure rising steadily next week as Low pressure steadily fills to the North next week as it moves away East. By the end of the week High pressure has built strongly over the UK with frost and freezing fog the main issues with some pleasantly bright and sunny days where fog clears,
The GFS Ensembles continue to show an unsettled pattern for the next few weeks with an increase in length of some drier spells in between the rain as we approach next week. There is no real sign of any generally cold conditions though things may trend somewhat colder overall than currently.
The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to flow East across the Atlantic close to the South of Britain. The trend is to keep the flow well South over Europe late in the output with a push North of the flow over the Atlantic towards Iceland later in week 2.
In Summary tonight there is still good support for a slow down or a cessation of the Atlantic train of Low pressure. The ECM's operational run is at the extreme of hope I feel but there is other good evidence for something drier and brighter later next week with temperatures not likely to be particularly high away from areas of frost and fog which may develop as a result of higher pressure and lighter winds.
*******************MAY I WISH ALL TWO'ERS A HAPPY NEW YEAR***********************
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset