Model Output Discussion, New Years Eve >>>· Page 5

johnm1976
Guest

01 January 2014 15:32:48

I believe SSW events occur every other year (on average) in the northern hemisphere winter... So very common, and certainly not the case that each one will put us into an extended deep freeze a la 1963. Interesting only one has ever been recorded in the southern hemisphere for reasons I don't understand. Andrew

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard

I think historically major SSW events have occurred on average 1 in 4 winters in the northern hemi only.

Every single winter since the snowy spell of Feb 2009 has featured a major SSW, so this is unusual.

Not every one has delivered cold to us, but most have.

Jan 2012 event delieverd deep cold to Europe (I was in Amsterdam at -15c shortly afterwards!) , whereas we just got bit frosty, for example.

Edited by user 01 January 2014 15:35:34 | Reason: Not specified

David M Porter
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 15:36:55

#104

CFS daily, ECM and GFS all hinting at change but a significant strat warming is now appearing on GFS, NAVGEM and JMA. On GFS the strat vortex is obliterated out in FI. The strat has been unusually cold over the pole this winter - if this verifies it should shake things up and produce some late Jan/ Feb cold, potentially sustained. OT, but SSWs are now a common feature of winter. Any ideas on why this is? Ozone is formed by a photochemical reaction, something to do with low solar activity? OK, now having mentioned strat warming for the 15 millionth time (and noting I'm not the only one commenting on it here) I'm going to duck back behind the parapet and wish you all a HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

Originally Posted by: johnm1976

And a Happy New Year to you as well John.

I just wonder whether it was mostly or even the SSW that took place last January that was responsible for altering the cpourse of last winter. There were hints in the model runs at the start of 2013 of a change away from the zonality that dominated the festive season last year as well as the lead-up to Xmas 2012. Quite possibly the models were starting to pick up then on the SSW, but whatever led to the change then was certainly a big relief from the never-ending rain of 2012.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Medlock Vale Weather
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 15:46:10

#105

I believe SSW events occur every other year (on average) in the northern hemisphere winter... So very common, and certainly not the case that each one will put us into an extended deep freeze a la 1963. Interesting only one has ever been recorded in the southern hemisphere for reasons I don't understand. Andrew

Originally Posted by: johnm1976

I think historically major SSW events have occurred on average 1 in 4 winters in the northern hemi only.

Every single winter since the snowy spell of Feb 2009 has featured a major SSW, so this is unusual.

Not every one has delivered cold to us, but most have.

Jan 2012 event delieverd deep cold to Europe (I was in Amsterdam at -15c shortly afterwards!) , whereas we just got bit frosty, for example.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard

Yes we were incredibly unlucky to miss out on the worst of the brutal cold that engulfed Europe in January 2012 could of been a January 1987 event, but we still got a cold spell in early Feb with England most effected. I think Holbeach in Lincolnshire recorded -15c.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/NWS-NOAA_Europe_Extreme_minimum_temperature_FEB_5_-_FEB_11%2C_2012.gif

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm

Rob K
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 15:52:04

#106

happy new year to all

i would be wary of these strat runs, little on 00z and huge outlier on 06z - see plot from belgian site -

http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902

sorry, no caps shift as right hand in plaster.

Originally Posted by: nouska

Everyone needs to look at this chart: clearly an error there I think. Scrap any talk of extreme warming.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

jondg14
Guest

01 January 2014 15:53:20

#107

happy new year to all

i would be wary of these strat runs, little on 00z and huge outlier on 06z - see plot from belgian site -

http://weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=1930965&tid=1930902

sorry, no caps shift as right hand in plaster.

Originally Posted by: nouska

Very useful charts thanks. 06z op really was a massive outlier!

Quantum
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 16:07:37

#108

I thought before the 12Z roll out, I would post the 10hpa wind at 384h from the 6z

http://oi39.tinypic.com/16ggap3.jpg

Still technically a minor warming event, as the polar vortex is still there (showing as the light winds in purple) but very close to being a major.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 16:29:20

#109

I believe SSW events occur every other year (on average) in the northern hemisphere winter... So very common, and certainly not the case that each one will put us into an extended deep freeze a la 1963. Interesting only one has ever been recorded in the southern hemisphere for reasons I don't understand. Andrew

Originally Posted by: jondg14

It's strange that they are very frequent and almost exclusive to the Northern Hemisphere. It would be interesting to know the cause.
SSWs don't guarantee anything for us weather-wise but the greater the warming/zonal wind reversal the more likely we are to see surface pressure anomalies.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard

I understand that mountain torque is one of the reasons. Since Antartica is surrounded by oceans, there is no scope for a mountain torque effect.

New world order coming.

Charmhills
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 16:30:47

#110

Very Atlantic dominated GFS 12z so far with flooding being a real issue in some places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Gooner
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 16:36:55

#111

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Still very different to ECM , expect to see ECM to change in a couple of hours

Should also add different from the earlier GFS run, HP to the NE looking to stay away

Edited by user 01 January 2014 16:38:48 | Reason: Not specified

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 16:39:51

#112

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-10-336.png?12

warming alot less also, but as we know the 6z was a HUGE outlier

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Chiltern Blizzard
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 16:43:09

#113

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-0-240.png?12
Still very different to ECM , expect to see ECM to change in a couple of hours
Should also add different from the earlier GFS run, HP to the NE looking to stay away

Originally Posted by: Gooner

'Expecting' anything from forthcoming model output is unwise imo... The model output will be what it will be, and at t240 could just as easily continue its 0z theme as revert to the gfs, or for that matter show something different again... We'll see!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl

JACKO4EVER
Guest

01 January 2014 17:09:41

#114

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-0-240.png?12
Still very different to ECM , expect to see ECM to change in a couple of hours
Should also add different from the earlier GFS run, HP to the NE looking to stay away

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Angry zonal wet and windy. Don't bet against this for quite some time!

David M Porter
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 17:20:00

#115

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-0-240.png?12 Still very different to ECM , expect to see ECM to change in a couple of hours Should also add different from the earlier GFS run, HP to the NE looking to stay away

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER

Angry zonal wet and windy. Don't bet against this for quite some time!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Don't bet against it possibly changing eventually either would be my advice. Even the MetO are now mentioning in their medium range updates of the possibility of a change in the weather later in January and the zonal train being derailed.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

White Meadows
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 17:23:50

#116

It surprises me how some members appear to relish these very wet & stormy conditions for the sake of it staying mild. We really could do with high pressure ridging in from somewhere whether it be Atlantic or Scandinavia I don't care as long as these damaging systems cease at some point soon.

glenogle
Advanced Member

01 January 2014 17:23:53

#117

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-10-336.png?12

warming alot less also, but as we know the 6z was a HUGE outlier

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Also, imo, a significant change to its location. There were two areas of warming shown (above and below) on previous charts, this looks like developing into one (to the right), which will alter the "squeezing" of the cold pool that had been mentioned previously.