That's a horror show Gavin!

The way this thread swerves too and fro under the power of subjectiveness is hysterical at times

From my point of view if the MOGREPS set and the UKMO extended text is trending cold, that's good enough for me. The FI GFS OP runs are as useful as a catflap in an elephant house (sic) in these situations.

Sorry coldies.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

The way this thread swerves too and fro under the power of subjectiveness is hysterical at times

From my point of view if the MOGREPS set and the UKMO extended text is trending cold, that's good enough for me. The FI GFS OP runs are as useful as a catflap in an elephant house (sic) in these situations.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

That for me is new one - wonderful

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

surely that is dependant on whether you are a very lost cat ?

london extended ens are cold (as expected). proper easterlies or slack continental drift ???

I know - simply commenting on that particular evolution

Have METO  done todays 16-30 day forecast?.Any change ?

Brave, brave man you are Gavin.

I didn't have the heart to post it ..... LOL

Why? It's not as if it's actually going to happen just like that, y'know!

(We actually have an interesting battle between the models going on at the moment. GEFS seems to have decided to go for a milder, zonal outlook while ECM is trending in the other direction, with average temperatures and drier conditions looking more likely than with GEFS. By all accounts MOGREPS is closer to ECM than GEFS).

Not quite all of them Darren   "A sight of beauty"

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=228&mode=0&carte=1

If you looked you'd see that quite the opposite, there are many wintry runs in the ECM ensembles:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

The GEFS isn't the be-all-and-end-all. And as is mentioned in the post before yours, not even the GEFS is entirely full of zonal, mild mush!

That has the look of a 80,s style winter easterly slowly setting in

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=0&carte=1

So, do we think the bronze run is an outlier or a trend setter?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 Trend Setter I hope

*12/1/14......18/1/14*
Temperatures continue to fall through this week. The winds turning more north to north-easterly. There is an increasing risk of sleet and snow across eastern and southern parts of the country. Scotland, Ireland and most of Wales and northwest England may stay cold but dry with some sunny spells.
Wintry conditions could persist in the south and east for a time. Daytime temperatures around 2 or 3C in southern England, 1 or 2C in Scotland with some very sharp overnight frosts.

*19/1/14......25/1/14*
A cold and wintry start to the week with more sleet and snow, again most to the south and east, if it occurs.
Severe frosts to the north and west, with these tending to become more widespread across all areas as the week progresses.

*26/1/14......1/2/14*
Hints of a battle developing through this week. Milder, Atlantic air will be moving against the colder air through the UK and Ireland. Where these two features meet, probably through Ireland, Wales and southern England, there is the threat of some wintry weather.
Milder weather should eventually arrive in the south and west later in the week, but it is likely to be remaining cold in the north and east with more wintry weather to the north.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead

I know GFS can be a bit temperamental - but its not grossly inaccurate.

When Weatheronline released their month ahead forecast it was totally against anything 'we' could see, I did e-mail Simon and ask what information he had for such a forecast to be produced.................................not had a reply yet

Thanks Marcus have been in hosptial again so did not see that btw look forward to the reply from them.

Remarkable 2 week NEFES output this morning

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-384.png?0

Almost complete agreement of mild unsettled weather continuing. 

Unusually high confidence of mild weather continuing past mid month. 

This is what the coldest 10% of runs look like

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-3-1-384.png?0

I don't think it could be a worse outlook for cold weather fans. 

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Jan 2014 to Sunday 2 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as during recent weeks. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month. This would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case.

Updated: 1134 on Sat 4 Jan 2014

However the METO has not changed its 16 day forecast.

At the moment the most likely outcome despite what the mild-rampers would have you believe is for temperatures to return to nearer normal values, with less in the way of wind and rain. There remains a small chance of this very mild zonal mush continuing and a somewhat larger change of a switch to cold conditions, rather than average ones.

The Met Office know this and that's why they've left their written forecast as is. They're the pros, of course!

I'm very impressed actually with ECM's recent performance. It picked out the 9th as being the game-changing day around a week ago and it's stuck with it ever since.

Im at a complete loss tbh, and I really don't know where this is coming from. I'm sure the met have a very good reason for this forecast but at the same time I see very little evidence to support it. My guess would have to be, that MOGREPS or some other VIP model is showing something very different. I mean you only have to go on to the metoffice model info page to see that the public only get a fraction of the wealth of data avalible. But since we don't have acesses to this wealth of information; all I can really do is comment on what is publically avalible.