Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 4th 2013 lifted from my website http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a brief respite from recent rains overnight as today's rain finally clears Eastern and Central parts this evening. Tomorrow then shows a freshening SW flow again ahead of troughs of Low pressure returning rain to all areas through the day, heavy at times. Winds will also become strong again with gales in exposure but less problematical than recently. Following the troughs the parent Low moves gently NE towards an area North of Scotland between Monday and Wednesday filling as it does. All areas can expect showers or further rain at times with decreasing winds and temperatures close to average.
GFS then shows the second half of next week with troughs continuing to move West to east across the UK in lighter winds than of late but with still sufficient energy to hinder any drying up of recent flood waters. Through the second week a more definitive period of dry weather develops as High pressure forms close to the NE of Britain, sinking South later. Dry and frosty weather would develop for most before a deterioration in conditions creeps down from the North through the final days of the run.
UKMO tonight shows High pressure over France with a WSW flow over the UK with troughs moving slowly East in the flow carrying some rain for all in average temperatures. the heaviest rain will be more confined towards the NW.
GEM tonight shows the unsettled embers of the recent wet period finally dying next weekend as High pressure develops over the UK with frost and fog becoming much more likely over the UK rather than wind and rain, at least for a time.
NAVGEM shows a continuation of at least some Atlantic influence into next weekend as slow moving fronts cross the UK giving rain for quite a time as they go.
ECM tonight continues this morning's theme of gradually drier and brighter conditions developing from next weekend as Low pressure gives way to High pressure shown tonight close to or over Southern Britain. No doubt frost and fog at night would be commonplace with fine and bright days to compensate in temperatures by day being close to average outside of any persistent fog patches.
The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart tonight shows Low pressure biased between the members to be most likely to be in the vicinity of Iceland and Southern Greenland and High or higher pressure equally biased towards the Azores to France and Central Europe. This would favour a clamer spell of quiet weather with light winds and these most likely from a SW direction more than anywhere else.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of rather changeable conditions over the extended period with more than a hint of an Atlantic influence still though rainfall will be greatly suppressed on recent levels with less gales likely too. Temperatures continue to look very average for January due to High pressure located towards the South or SW of the UK.
The Jet Stream continues to blow West to East across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain and France for a while longer. From later next week it disrupts more with a trend to drift it further North over the Atlantic before turning SE down over or just to the East of the UK later in the run.
In Summary tonight the trend towards drier and fine weather continues as High pressure develops closer to the UK finally ending or reducing the effects of the recent monsoon like rainfall as any Low pressure troughs become much weaker or steered much further towards the North and NW of the UK. How long such an improvement lasts remains an open question but to my eyes with the Jet flow riding over the top of developing High pressure it would appear that the High pressure areas could well eventually sink away South.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset