It's been pointed out several times that MOGREPS is trending colder and ECM is as clear as day:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

It's clear from the Met Office text forecast that they don't care for G(E)FS' milder outcome. Even that's not especially mild though, just a degree or so above average! NAEFS is just a combination of GEM and GFS ensembles as far as I can work out, it doesn't contain any ECM data. As such, it's not a surprise to see it backing the GEFS at the moment.

The only thing which puzzles me is why there are a few people on here who won't look beyond the GEFS for whatever reason!

And see my post from the other day. You, along with everyone else, have access to selected elements of ECM-15, ECM-32, MOGREPS etc. And for the bits you *don't* have access to, see the NW forums where people who *do* have access are posting about what they show.

The post earlier today was interesting too, regarding the discussion nickl and I were having. A few months ago GLOSEA wasn't used in the extended MetO text forecast, it was solely the ECM-32 driving it. However, that seems to have changed - they are now using something else as Ian F mentioned on NW, but he's not said what. AFAIK, the only other thing they have that goes out that far is GLOSEA, so it's likely to be that.

So its not just me who thinks we've got a lot more mild and wet and windy weather yet to come.

I don't just look at GEFS/GEMS. I look at all the models I have acsess too, including the ECMWF and EPS; I point you to the 0Z ECM outlook incidently. And the EPS has consistantly forecast mild or average weather beyond mid month (though like I say, end of the month things may well turn colder). Today happens to be an exception as far as the EPS goes

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010400/EDH101-240.GIF?04-12

With a somewhat wintry (although nothing eye watering http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010400/EDH1-240.GIF?04-12) end at 240, although 216h continues the wet and mild pattern. But I have been checking the EPS regularly and there has generally been very good agreement. I'm also keeping an eye on the long term models such as korea, JMA and the CFS which again paint a similar picture. 

???

To mid month:

GEFS: Mild and unsettled

GEMS: Very mild and unsettled

ECMWF: Similar, although most recent run is colder (although still atlantic driven). All other runs have been mild and unsettled

NAEFS: Same story

NOGAPSS: Mild and unsettled too.

Now the OPS

GFSOP: Very unsettled and mild after brief bartlett

GEMOP: Unsettled and mild to 240, attempt at scandi resistance only by then

CFSOP: More settled but southerly blocking, not northerly

ECMOP: Hints of bartlett at 216, southerly blocking and unsettled in the north. 

NAVGEMOP: Blocking attempt thwarted at 180, atlantic theme avg 850s.

Nope, me too!

I think the overall outlook for colder weather is very poor at the moment, and that NEFES output is quite remarkable. If it were to verify, that would be January virtually nailed. Call me blinkered or whatever, but I see no general pattern change at moment, with a general west to east zonal flow evident. As some have said, a general pressure rise may well gain foothold over Scandinavia, but as we have so often seen in the past that can lead to bugger all here. If there were to be any pressure rise, then one to the South of us  into Europe would be my call atm

That's simply not true. I don't know whether you weren't paying attention or whatever, but...

Yesterday's 12z had a Scandi High:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010312/ECM1-192.GIF?12

Yesterday's 0z had a weak ridge over England and Wales with a col further north - not mild!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010300/ECM1-240.GIF?00

Thursday's 12z had zonal SW'lies but it was not mild:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010212/ECM1-240.GIF?12

Thursday's 0z had a lull followed by SW'lies and again it was not mild:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010200/ECM1-240.GIF?00

I could go on but hopefully you get the point.

Yesterday's 12z ensembles showed a non-mild outlook from the 9th:

http://oi43.tinypic.com/29ay6hh.jpg

Thursday's 12z ensembles showed a non-mild outlook from the 11th:

http://oi44.tinypic.com/atllr4.jpg

Wednesday's 12z ensembles showed a non-mild outlook from the 9th:

http://oi43.tinypic.com/2wgauc8.jpg

Tuesday's 12z ensembles showed a non-mild outlook from the 9th:

http://oi39.tinypic.com/14tq4cg.jpg

Again, I could go on but I've proved my point. ECM has been consistently showing the 9th - the 0z ensembles showed the same trend, but I don't archive those.

My money is also on the Atlantic continuing for sometime to come.

I might be in the minority , I would be happy with a temp range from 0c-4c ( Day) and freezing at night if we get snow , as always in the UK it would be a bonus, its the cold I want the white stuff can be the icing .....so to speak

Once cold day, one run, one model - not quite a "freeze up" yet     But it does support the idea of colder weather setting in from mid month. 

12z GEFS:

http://www.meteociel.com...a=0&type=3&ext=1

What's interesting is that after the 9th there are only 2 members which go above 10C.

There are a good chunk of colder runs tonight and as a result the mean high drops below the long-term average by the 13th. It's not as fast as ECM is at lowering temperatures but by the 9th they're only a degree or so above average.

It's not just one cold day, one run or one model though.

All the major models show the upcoming change and have done for a few days now. It's why I mentioned the 9th as being the day that marked the change a week ago - the models have been quite consistent regarding it.

They've not been at all consistent regarding what happens after the upcoming pattern change though, but as things stand a colder trending outlook is more likely than a mild one. The favourite option remains near-average temperatures, with some rain but less than we've had of late. We're also going to lose the damaging winds. That's been the case for a few days too, across all the models.

Nobody on here has forecast a cold spell or even suggested it's probably going to happen, merely the comments have been reporting the chances as forecast by the models - a chance which the MetO thought worth mentioning in their medium range outlooks. All that can be said is that a cold spell is possible and it's more likely than a mild spell going by current models - but as mentioned, the favoured option would be near-normal conditions.

Cmon the only one that could be remotely considered 'cold' or not zonal was that ECM run from yesterday. And that scandi high shown very quickly collapsed afterwards. All the other runs you are showing me are showing low heights, low pressure, and SWrly feeds and most of those depressions are not fully occluded so we are not looking at non stop cold rpm airmasses, there will be tm too. 

I give up with you, Quantum. You are unable to interpret those ensembles properly, it seems, so it's not worth arguing with you any more.

Meanwhile back to model discussion the 12z ECM is pretty similar at 168 to the 0z run. I suspect we're going to end up with high pressure over or to the east of the UK again in this run, heights are rising to the west and the long-wave pattern is moving eastwards.

Just to people always going on about uncertainties. There is always going to be uncertainty in this sort of forecasting. But there is a clear difference between 50:50 mild:cold split, and a 90:10 mild:cold split which is basically what I am seeing at the moment. Okay so we might have slightly increased the number of cold signals about; though the amount of such indicators is significantly less then when I was bleating on about the bering high in early December (and which did lead to a short cold spell in the end); and back then no one took these indicators seriously.

Which ensembles? GEFS, NAEFS, NOGAPSS, EPS, GEMS? ALL of them show a dominent zonal picture or southerly blocking by mid month. Point to one that doesn't. 

Yes, they do. As I've said several times now.

And I've never said that we were in for a cold spell, nor has anyone else - a straw man argument if ever there was one. I've said there's a chance of a cold spell, as have the Met Office.

I think I'll bow out of here tonight as it's all gone a bit weird with some of the posts in here! See you all tomorrow, when we'll doubtless do this all over again.

And Quantum - ECM-15. You know, the one you keep ignoring for some reason!