Another day on and it's the same story as yesterday. There's still going to be a change away from our very wet and windy conditions on the 9th, with temperatures returning to near-normal values.
As expected there's still a bit of intra-run variation beyond that, with ECM-15 continuing to show distinctly average conditions. Beyond day 10 ECM-15 splits into two clusters, with a milder, wetter cluster and a colder, drier cluster. Both have a similar number of members, resulting in the mean remaining around the long-term average. Note that right now, as has been the case for a few days now, the ECM-15 mean charts as shown on Wetterzentrale are all but useless - they're not representative of either cluster.
GEFS has sorted itself out after its 6z wobble yesterday: the 12z, 18z and 0z suites all show generally average conditions too beyond the 9th, with less in the way of wind and rain than of late. Like ECM, it also shows two main clusters beyond day 10, although unlike ECM towards the end it's split 75%/25% in favour of a spell of colder than average conditions.
So, as it stands - the 9th will still mark a change away from the current synoptics. Beyond that is uncertain, with a few average days probable and then it could go one of two ways, either back to a milder, wetter outlook or remaining more settled with temperatures at or a bit below average.
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - ECM
http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 - GEFS 0z
Edited by user
05 January 2014 06:09:27
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