Lets remember it is just GFS as Darren says there more than just that model

There is Karl, I have just flicked through a few and some like the idea of an Easterly

Strat warming wise, neither GFS or NAVGEM are budging. Its time for a bloodbath

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014010418/navgemnh-7-144.png?04-23

Another day on and it's the same story as yesterday. There's still going to be a change away from our very wet and windy conditions on the 9th, with temperatures returning to near-normal values.

As expected there's still a bit of intra-run variation beyond that, with ECM-15 continuing to show distinctly average conditions. Beyond day 10 ECM-15 splits into two clusters, with a milder, wetter cluster and a colder, drier cluster. Both have a similar number of members, resulting in the mean remaining around the long-term average. Note that right now, as has been the case for a few days now, the ECM-15 mean charts as shown on Wetterzentrale are all but useless - they're not representative of either cluster.

GEFS has sorted itself out after its 6z wobble yesterday: the 12z, 18z and 0z suites all show generally average conditions too beyond the 9th, with less in the way of wind and rain than of late. Like ECM, it also shows two main clusters beyond day 10, although unlike ECM towards the end it's split 75%/25% in favour of a spell of colder than average conditions.

So, as it stands - the 9th will still mark a change away from the current synoptics. Beyond that is uncertain, with a few average days probable and then it could go one of two ways, either back to a milder, wetter outlook or remaining more settled with temperatures at or a bit below average.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - ECM

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 - GEFS 0z

It's looks to me that our drier and anticyclonic period of weather has been somewhat downgraded to more of a transitory and passing ridge on most of the output this morning and mostly benefitting the south. There are ominous signs developing that the form horse for high pressure to sink south into France will open the door to another zonal and mobile set up in the longer term. Thankfully it doesn't look quite as extreme as our recent atlantic onslaught though !

One to watch but certainly more confidence in this set up than anything properly cold and wintry in the longer term. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png GFS

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif  ECM

 High pressure on the UKMO 144 looks fragile.. likely the atlantic will turn things wetter again moving forward too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

0z ECM ensembles:

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2v7tiz8.jpg

The trend from the last few days is still very much present with the switch to a drier, less windy spell of weather showing up well. It's noteworthy too that the median maximum temperature is now below average from the 11th onwards, with a median high of just 3C by the end of the run.

In comparison the 12z run had 6C median highs on the 10th-12th, with a median high of 5C on the 13th and 14th.

Based on that, I expect the London 15-day plume will show lower temperatures overall past the 11th compared to last night's run:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

When considered alongside the GEFS (which favours the cold cluster this morning, as it did on the 18z too) it all adds up to the "what comes next?" question being answered with "probably colder".

EDIT: As with yesterday's output, note the almost complete absense of >10C temperatures past the 11th. Whatever comes next is unlikely to be especially mild!