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Hungry Tiger
05 January 2014 11:41:36

One thing we can deduce is that it looks like some form of colder weather is going to turn up.


However, charts/ensemsbles are all over the place at the moment.


We still can't really tell what is going to happen.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Polar Low
05 January 2014 11:50:13

Bitter air digs into Europe east meets west ukmo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007


 


 

ARTzeman
05 January 2014 11:52:59

TWO weeks today for the big change ...maybe...





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Essan
05 January 2014 11:55:06


One thing we can deduce is that it looks like some form of colder weather is going to turn up.


However, charts/ensemsbles are all over the place at the moment.


We still can't really tell what is going to happen.


 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 


In a nutshell

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Hippydave
05 January 2014 11:58:52

6z certainly splats energy about although the jet never really goes North so wouldn't be a mild fest, just unsettled and wandering around average.


Signs right at the end of things settling down although all just pretty pixels at that stage


Be interesting to see what happens if/when the settled blip arrives - whether GFS then moderates the unsettled weather and comes up with a few more HP dominated runs or sticks to its guns and shows more zonal stuff.


Must admit even with some ens support of something a little cooler and more settled, notably from the ECM, it's hard to see us getting a prolonged settled period, just because of how strong the zonal train has been lately. Hopefully ECM will prove my pessimism wrong!

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Polar Low
05 January 2014 12:04:05

Wonder if that short wave on ukmo will be the trigger for an easterly of sorts starting to develope in the latter stages


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021


http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120


 


 


 


 


 

White Meadows
05 January 2014 12:15:12
Some misleading posts regarding milder temps in the coming weeks...(?)
All I see is back to average temps, maybe colder than average later on.
Retron
05 January 2014 12:49:34

An interesting discussion going on over on NW. Ian F had this to say when asked whether the Met Office are going for high pressure to be close by:


"Correct as we head into 10-15d trend period (i.e. as affecting S/SE especially). As of 00z EC, circa 40% of EPS members build pressure to NE with increasing easterly component to low-level flow. This signal is one to watch, clearly - especially given some recent similar MOGREPS-15 indications of much colder options (still in a minority but instructive nonetheless)."

Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
05 January 2014 12:56:03


An interesting discussion going on over on NW. Ian F had this to say when asked whether the Met Office are going for high pressure to be close by:


"Correct as we head into 10-15d trend period (i.e. as affecting S/SE especially). As of 00z EC, circa 40% of EPS members build pressure to NE with increasing easterly component to low-level flow. This signal is one to watch, clearly - especially given some recent similar MOGREPS-15 indications of much colder options (still in a minority but instructive nonetheless)."


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Good to see you have a regular input into the MOD


Posts very informative as always

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


stophe
05 January 2014 13:05:17
London Ecm ensembles showing things drying out long term.
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif 
JACKO4EVER
05 January 2014 13:09:43

Some misleading posts regarding milder temps in the coming weeks...(?)
All I see is back to average temps, maybe colder than average later on.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Nothing misleading, just a possibility. Equally it could possibly turn colder. At least it may turn somewhat less wet we hope

Karl Guille
05 January 2014 13:33:58
Gooner
05 January 2014 13:49:11


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-11-1-264.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-9-1-276.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-348.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-4-1-288.png?6


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-19-1-312.png?6


Still plenty of options for cold 


 


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 



Not quite as good as last time though Marcus! Hopefully the trend will continue to build on subsequent runs though!

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


There were others showing cold and snow potential but from fleeting Northerlies and itis just GFS

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
05 January 2014 14:24:27

Here's todays video update;


Korean Model Suggesting A Cold Ferbuary;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Also has a look at the chances of the weather settling down mid month.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Hungry Tiger
05 January 2014 14:35:06


Here's todays video update;


Korean Model Suggesting A Cold Ferbuary;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Also has a look at the chances of the weather settling down mid month.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Hmmm - something's brewing.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gooner
05 January 2014 15:17:11


Here's todays video update;


Korean Model Suggesting A Cold Ferbuary;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Also has a look at the chances of the weather settling down mid month.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Cheers Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


schmee
05 January 2014 15:58:18



Here's todays video update;


Korean Model Suggesting A Cold Ferbuary;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Also has a look at the chances of the weather settling down mid month.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Cheers Gav


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


 Cheers Gavin


 

Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Gooner
05 January 2014 16:45:03

GFS 12z continues the relentless Atlantic


Lets see what the ENS say

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
05 January 2014 16:53:08


GFS 12z continues the relentless Atlantic


Lets see what the ENS say


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I seem to remember that there were times during early-mid January last year, when we were just coming out of a period of strong zonality, when the GFS kept wanting to bring back the atlantic at a time when the other models werte shwoing less unsettled weather taking over. Perhaps GFS is overcooking the atlantic; I have seen others say numerous times in the past that GFS is prone to doing this.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
whitelightning
05 January 2014 16:54:13
GFS 12z very mobile. The building high from the south hardly materialises and we end up back in a stream of lows. January could end up being a very wet month.
Quantum
05 January 2014 16:56:08

There do seem to be more enoucraging trends on the EPS now


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010500/EDH101-240.GIF?05-12


by 240


In reality this could perhaps equate to a cold spell a few days afterwards, perhaps the 20th. All models very consitant to keep things avg or mild until after mid month though. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
05 January 2014 16:57:00

GFS 12z very mobile. The building high from the south hardly materialises and we end up back in a stream of lows. January could end up being a very wet month.

Originally Posted by: whitelightning 


I'd wait to see where it sits in the ENS before predicting the outcome  of January

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
05 January 2014 16:59:20
Well I had a look at GFS 12z run, and it appears that areas of Low pressure for the UK, NW N and NE Atlantic and much of Nirthern Europe still looks like bubbling up along with temperatures responding to cloudy and windy plus wet weather- some colder blips or bits at times, SW or Westerly winds along with a dominant Jetstream.

The way GFS is trending is still looking Unsettled and wet at times, with some breaks in the weather only for short times and some colder slots as well, though I'd suggest for you inset rested in it to still hope for a change so that we start to invite some excited people on here!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
moomin75
05 January 2014 17:05:34

GFS 12z very mobile. The building high from the south hardly materialises and we end up back in a stream of lows. January could end up being a very wet month.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I'd wait to see where it sits in the ENS before predicting the outcome  of January

Originally Posted by: whitelightning 


You've been saying pretty much the same thing since November Marcus. Still looking zonal and wet to me.
So glad I missed December although I did have to endure some utter crap cricket.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
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