Good morning one and all. Here is today's report from the NWP for the period from midnight last night to 21st January lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show an intense depression West of Scotland which will continue drifting slowly NE to a position North of Scotland by midweek, having filled considerably by then. The weather pattern as a result of this will be similar for all with strong to gale force SW winds slowly decreasing with time but carrying showers and occasional longer spells of rain, these particularly to the South and SE towards midweek. Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery with hail but quite scattered at times. Temperatures in this strong SW flow will remain close to average and rather mild at first in the South.
GFS then shows a trough crossing East on Thursday carrying the last of the showers over and away East from this current system. However, following a transient ridge and attendant dry weather the rest of the week sees further troughs cross East at times in the slacker Westerly flow with further outbreaks of rain at times in average temperatures. Through next week High pressure moves up close to the South and SE for a time with a fine and dry inerlude for many before unsettled, sometimes windy and changeable conditions return later with rain and showers for all in average temperatures though a little snow is possible on Northern hills in the more showery periods.
The GFS Ensembles seem to agree with the overall message of the operational with some variability between the members of the set with a few going cold at times but a fair few staying milder than average too leading to an overall consensus that things are most likely to remain Atlantic based with rain at times and temperatures never far from average.
UKMO today shows next Sunday with High pressure to the SE having declined with a small area of Low pressure developing to the SW bringing another hindrance to the drying up process as it looks like it would send cloud and rain North and East across Britain later in the day.
GEM this morning brings some slow moving fronts across the UK next weekend with some rain before finally pressure rises and High pressure forms close to SW Britain late in the run with quiet and benign conditions developing in average temperatures while northernmost areas stay rather more cloudy under a Westerly breeze. Slight night frosts could develop across Southern Britain later.
NAVGEM continues it's unsettled vein right out to the end of it's run making next weekend unsettled and breezy with rain at times as yet another Low pressure crosses East over the far North with Westerly winds for all.
ECM this morning shows High pressure over France next weekend moving NE to Scandinavia later at the same time as a deepening Low moves North over the Eastern Atlantic sending troughs East into the UK. Some fine relatively mild and dry conditions early next weekend would be replaced by wet and colder weather as the troughs having moved in from the West disrupts over the UK and slides away SE later with pressure then rising again. The run ends with the Jet Stream flattening the Scandinavian High and we end up with what looks like a mid latitude block forming close to Southern Britain later next week with dry and fine weather with overnight frost and fog patches, especially towards the south and SE.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart show a better overall outlook for those looking for cold with the trend or bias for High pressure to the East of the UK or indeed Scandinavia looking quite high next week. Fronts are likely to be attacking any European attack from cold and this could result in slow moving fronts over Western Britain later with more unwanted rain and possibly snow if enough undercutting can take place.
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The GFS Jet Stream Forecast is for the current flow to subside in a few days with the flow arching North strongly over the Atlantic while breaking up, lighter and more diffuse by next weekend. In Week 2 the genral theme is for it to blow more variably in track and speed though still close to the UK at times late in the run.
In Summary today there is not a lot of change with just a shuffling about of outcomes shown between the runs. It still looks very unlikely that any significantly colder weather is likely over the period covered by this morning's runs however the ECM mean Charts for next week aren't at all bad for the cold fraternity providing we could tap into some cold continental air. However, what this morning's do show is an increased chance of drier if not dry weather next week giving flood stricken communities a chance to mop up as the Atlantic train of Low pressure becomes weakened and de-railed due to High pressure building to the South or East of the UK. Some frost and fog look like becoming possible next week over the very wet ground principally towards the South and SE but unless the models have the position of the High wrong then daytime temperatures outside of any fog look like remaining quite reasonable unless ECM's mean can be pushed towards cold further.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset