The danger with this pattern is the one I spoke about in a video the other day - The high pressure to the north east finishes keeping weather fronts from being unable to exit into the North Sea - After all the rain that's gone before, imagine how serious the flooding could get if fronts basically become's stationary over us.

Spot David.And if you want to look at how the 20th Jan  Scandi HP  build was modelled by GFS from Jan 5th onwards last yaer just look at the archives,

roger, will tend to happen the other way around. that frigid block wont drift sw into iberia. though it could get cut off by the atantic trough.

trends are good but i am concerned that the zonal flow in the trop, which has been neg north of 70N for a while could get knocked as the upper strat warmings flush the stronger westerlies down into the trop. that would scupper any decent scandi high. hope im wrong on that. would be an ultimate irony !

I think we need to be patient now, there are strong signs emerging of massive cyclosis in the atlantic; plus the cold pool over canada is projected to dwindle finally. I suspect by the 20th, we may be looking at a cold spell when HP has fully become established to the east and the atlantic has died down. 

Not so much the Atlantic being too strong, more a case of the Euro High being too resilient. If the big Atlantic low could move eastwards over the UK and into northern mainland Europe, it would be fantastic - advecting cold air westwards, as well as propping up a high to our north. The northern two-thirds of the UK would be under cold air - superb.

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon outputs of the big 5 weather modules for today Sunday January 5th 2014.

All models show a large Atlantic storm crossing ENE slowly over the Atlantic and towards an area North of Scotland by midweek. Several bands of squally rain will cross East overnight perhaps with hail and thunder before things settled into a showery WSW flow through tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday with the threat of more persistent rain for a time midweek in the South as a wave feature runs East close to Southern England. Pressure will rise soon after midweek with some welcome dry and bright weather, particularly in the South and East though the North and west under a slacker Westerly pressure gradient will see a continued risk of rainfall though these areas will share in the less windy conditions too.

GFS then shows a very changeable pattern through the remainder of it's run with things turning distinctly unsettled and potentially stormy at times again towards the end of the run as deep Low pressure and westerly gales re-establishes itself. Temperatures will stay near to average or marginally below at times in the wake of passing Low pressure.

UKMO for next Saturday shows Hiigh pressure slipping slowly away to the SE with a slack SW flow developing under slowly falling pressure with the advance of Atlantic fronts towards the West late in the day with potential rain.

GEM tonight shows a quieter spell late next week before Low pressure regains control, sliding SE over the UK in response to High pressure over Scandinavia. The UK would see spells of rain followed by wintry showers with things becoming rather cold in the North towards the end of the run although probably only briefly.

NAVGEM tonight also shows High pressure to the SE with attendant drier conditions down here although troughing remains perilously close to Northern and Western areas threatening further rain at times towards the end of next weekend.

ECM today shows tentative signs still of drying the weather up from next weekend as High pressure moves close to SE Britain and maybe further towards Scandinavia later. However, the Atlantic is not dead and the threat of Atlantic fronts into the west and NW at times later remains very real. Quieter and less windy weather though could lead to frost and fog patches under any clearer night time skies later.

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a bias of lower pressure to the west of Iceland and generally higher pressure towards Europe. However, there is no definitive suggestion of which pattern is gaining momentum with something of a stalemate developed between colder continental air over Europe and milder Atlantic rain bearing troughs and attendant rain close to the West from many members. It is an indication when strolling between the 9 and 10 day mean charts that changes and trends are painfully slow and hard to call.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles have reversed this morning's trend of the somewhat colder trend and have returned a very ordinary set tonight with rain at times throughout the run with a very Atlantic based pattern. There are a few anticyclonic members in the mix too offering something rather drier if not especially cold.

The GFS Jet Stream Flow shows the current flow becoming much disrupted by the end of this week with multiple fingers of flow scattered around the North Atlantic and UK before a tendency for it to feed strongest towards a position South of the UK in a split flow develops through Week 2.

In Summary tonight GFS is not a pretty sight maintaining a very unsettled and Atlantic based pattern with plenty of rain around and wind too later. It's ensembles are not wonderful either with very average temperature values. However, all other output does suggest a break from the wet and windy theme of recently though with the Atlantic fronts and Lows perilously close to our Western shores at times we may well have to be patient for any major shift towards a more wintry flavour than that on offer of drier and more useable weather with night frosts and fog a possibility in the South and East.

I share Gavin P's concerns about what could unfold in the medium-term.

In FI, the GFS 12z op shows the Atlantic energy becoming 'wedged' under the blocking heights to the NE, with energetic systems tracking into the UK and dieing a death here - we become the Atlantic Graveyard 

I can see how ECM could easily go the same way from day 10. It's the likely product in this part of the world from a pattern that promotes both an active Atlantic and blocking the NE, as we saw to a troublesome extent last winter.

So it is that, having been faced back in November with signals supporting the idea of a particularly dry winter, with possibly one of the driest Decembers on record, that I now find myself considering the potential for the wettest winter on record instead!

December here was the wettest I've recorded, coming in 22.8mm ahead of last year, which previously held the title. That said, my records for rainfall only go back to 2005. Obviously this sort of thing should be discussed in another thread so I'll leave it there 

Does that mean more wind and rain?

Drafted a post earlier on my iPad then promptly lost it! As you say, GFS looks distinctly average but there are a couple of colder runs on the ensembles I think ECM shows what could happen and with a favourable adjustment here and there it could turn interesting!  What GFS and ECM do agree on is that beyond T120 its pretty much anyone's guess so I continue to view the models with heightened interest, albeit I was pretty much in hibernation mode before!!  

Good morning one and all. Here is today's report from the NWP for the period from midnight last night to 21st January lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show an intense depression West of Scotland which will continue drifting slowly NE to a position North of Scotland by midweek, having filled considerably by then. The weather pattern as a result of this will be similar for all with strong to gale force SW winds slowly decreasing with time but carrying showers and occasional longer spells of rain, these particularly to the South and SE towards midweek. Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery with hail but quite scattered at times. Temperatures in this strong SW flow will remain close to average and rather mild at first in the South.

GFS then shows a trough crossing East on Thursday carrying the last of the showers over and away East from this current system. However, following a transient ridge and attendant dry weather the rest of the week sees further troughs cross East at times in the slacker Westerly flow with further outbreaks of rain at times in average temperatures. Through next week High pressure moves up close to the South and SE for a time with a fine and dry inerlude for many before unsettled, sometimes windy and changeable conditions return later with rain and showers for all in average temperatures though a little snow is possible on Northern hills in the more showery periods.

The GFS Ensembles seem to agree with the overall message of the operational with some variability between the members of the set with a few going cold at times but a fair few staying milder than average too leading to an overall consensus that things are most likely to remain Atlantic based with rain at times and temperatures never far from average.

UKMO today shows next Sunday with High pressure to the SE having declined with a small area of Low pressure developing to the SW bringing another hindrance to the drying up process as it looks like it would send cloud and rain North and East across Britain later in the day.

GEM this morning brings some slow moving fronts across the UK next weekend with some rain before finally pressure rises and High pressure forms close to SW Britain late in the run with quiet and benign conditions developing in average temperatures while northernmost areas stay rather more cloudy under a Westerly breeze. Slight night frosts could develop across Southern Britain later.

NAVGEM continues it's unsettled vein right out to the end of it's run making next weekend unsettled and breezy with rain at times as yet another Low pressure crosses East over the far North with Westerly winds for all.

ECM this morning shows High pressure over France next weekend moving NE to Scandinavia later at the same time as a deepening Low moves North over the Eastern Atlantic sending troughs East into the UK. Some fine relatively mild and dry conditions early next weekend would be replaced by wet and colder weather as the troughs having moved in from the West disrupts over the UK and slides away SE later with pressure then rising again. The run ends with the Jet Stream flattening the Scandinavian High and we end up with what looks like a mid latitude block forming close to Southern Britain later next week with dry and fine weather with overnight frost and fog patches, especially towards the south and SE.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart show a better overall outlook for those looking for cold with the trend or bias for High pressure to the East of the UK or indeed Scandinavia looking quite high next week. Fronts are likely to be attacking any European attack from cold and this could result in slow moving fronts over Western Britain later with more unwanted rain and possibly snow if enough undercutting can take place.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast is for the current flow to subside in a few days with the flow arching North strongly over the Atlantic while breaking up, lighter and more diffuse by next weekend. In Week 2 the genral theme is for it to blow more variably in track and speed though still close to the UK at times late in the run.

In Summary today there is not a lot of change with just a shuffling about of outcomes shown between the runs. It still looks very unlikely that any significantly colder weather is likely over the period covered by this morning's runs however the ECM mean Charts for next week aren't at all bad for the cold fraternity providing we could tap into some cold continental air. However, what this morning's do show is an increased chance of drier if not dry weather next week giving flood stricken communities a chance to mop up as the Atlantic train of Low pressure becomes weakened and de-railed due to High pressure building to the South or East of the UK. Some frost and fog look like becoming possible next week over the very wet ground principally towards the South and SE but unless the models have the position of the High wrong then daytime temperatures outside of any fog look like remaining quite reasonable unless ECM's mean can be pushed towards cold further.

Looks a big pattern change to me.

UKMO right now, with a 955 mb storm approaching us and high pressure centred way to the east over the Caspian:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

UKMO at the weekend, with high pressure over us and deflecting low pressure southwards:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

If you're a fan of GFS, then you have a huge 950 mb storm approaching us now:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0

Followed by high pressure at the weekend:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

ECM is more extreme, with a nice yellow high centred over us at the weekend:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Daily GFS ensembles report. 0h run. Ratio zonal:anticyclonic circulation(pevious days in brackets)

144h 90:10 (60:40,90:10:90:10)

240h 75:25 (65:35,65:35,70:30)

360h 65:35 (55:45,90:10,80:20)

After yestrdays slightly less zonal ens ,today reverts to more zonal across all three times.ECM has HP developing over Scan around 168H but then pushed away by the Atlantic.  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=360&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=1

Hope that helps!

WOW Quiet in here! I wonder why?

Should dry out a little hopefully and that cold air looks to give us a miss. Perfect!