The general synoptics are nearly the same with low pressure W of Scotland pushing against high pressure to the east.  Details differ, with ECM having a stronger high.  At that range, it's a quite good match, IMO.  Though I'm not sure ECM would actually produce snow anywhere below 1,000ft west of Denmark.

But since its all in FI range, it's a moot point. 

---

andy, i cant really be bothered to go into the detail re the dec 2012 ecm run and last months failed northerly. (i can find hundreds more illustrations where ecm was right at gfs's expense). the main point here is that its not the models that are at fault so much as us who are looking at them.  as gandalf posts, dont read ops literally post day 5/6. thats where the ens are supposed to be used. down to those stats again. the ens verify better post day 6 than the ops. last time i checked, the ens went ahead around T110. it may be a little later now since ecm's upgrade in june.

interesting that gem and ecm ens have almost exactly the same lw pattern at day 10.

also, interesting that both bring the atlantic back through thereafter though i wonder how this would  play out with low euro anomolys persisting.

 

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/06/basis18/ukuk/prec/14010709_0618.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/06/basis12/ukuk/prec/14010812_0612.gif

NAE paints a wetter picture than GFS, with something interesting tomorrow morning that just happens to be locallised across some of the areas that have seen the most rain recently, followed by Wednesday's feature being further NW than GFS has it - and looking very intense.

Is this NAE handling convection better than GFS for once...?

---

I'm inclined to anticipate something along the lines of the Atlantic energy digging into Europe a bit in the form of a complex trough, while blocking to the NE is close enough to turn things wintry in the N/NE at times while elsewhere it remains a rainfest...

I really hope the block ends up closer than that and delivers a decent cold spell nationwide, but the Atlantic is looking rather too energetic for that IMO.

---

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010618/gfsnh-0-240.png?18

could be of interest further down the line

---

At a glance it looks like the 18z GFS has moved somewhat towards the ECM 12z scenario in the medium to longer term. It will be interesting to see what the overall picture will be in the 00z output

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png 

---

If in doubt, go for the classic, a fortnight after america gets it we will get it.

Therefore keep an eye on the charts for around the 18th to 21st for wintry weather 

---

First post this winter, after an awful first 6 weeks of winter. A glimmer of potential tonight. Still too tentative to me and I still think anything cold will be shorter lived than in recent winters. Quite a few went for a more Atlantic based winter and I still see that happening on a regular basis to disrupt and prolonged colder set up.

Mid january still looks good to offer a change. Still only recorded 3 frosts since last April.

---

Some interesting output this evening.

Of more concern to me right now however is the developing trough to the SW for Wednesday. After that its all very uncertain, and even if the promising (from a cold weather point of view) 'undercutting' scenario takes hold, the main result will be copious amounts of rain for the south and south west in particular, and no guarantee that there wont be some gales thrown in (although from the S/SE rather than SW.....)

---

Didn't the wintry weather in America start in November though?!

---

That looks like shooting across Southern parts of Wales and England, could be some heavy rain .........................again

---

Interesting to look at another LP coming to Toronto so possible to see winter storm for me?

How wonderful.

---

Yes early November and didn't do anything for the UK but made it worse for us so only way out is to see milder weather over N American and we get the cold with source from the east.

Yes very wonderful  as GFS only show up to 180.  Subject to change but looking good to see LP waiting on the wings. 

It might be seen as rubbing the noses of those of us who are in the UK in the fact that we will NOT be getting anything remotely like that. 

 

---

I know Nick so hopefully when I return back to see this change to real cold with some snow or if not going to happen to get a early Spring to give a break for many who suffered with this abnormal Autumn type weather non-stop since September.  It been so rare to see London ensembles going for -5C uppers this winter so far.