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Not a great ECM prob one of the mildest when set against its ensembles. We would be unlucky if it works out like this. Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
At 850hpa maybe on the gound its cold and raw/wet
Stunning Chart lovely movement from 2 energy lovely hold of heights my projector flickers with delight
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0
Originally Posted by: Polar Low
Love those vertical lines pumping mild, Atlantic air up the west coast of Greenland.
An extreme option, but a joy to see it in the model output for mid-January
Some decent charts floating around tonight ...................at last
Originally Posted by: Gooner
With blocking to the north & east setting up I foresee razor blades out one run and shovels out the next. As the models decide what will happen.
No pun intended.
Nothing much wrong with that from ecm even Q might be a bit happy
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=101&map=0&archive=0
Indeed even Martin might have to say something cold tonight as I think his a secret mild fan
Hey Naughty, Naughty..
Could go epic in a couple of days but the ECM not as good as the other output tonight. Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
The ECM has history churning out cold charts at 240, lets wait and see whether it maintains the trend over a few runs and where it sits amongst the ensembles
Stunning Chart lovely movement from 2 energy lovely hold of heightsmy projector flickers with delighthttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010712/ECH1-240.GIF?07-0
I have seen worse 240 charts from ECM this Winter
Not really quite there yet Marcus, but a step in the right direction I guess.
As Gav said earlier though, the big worry is stalling fronts and more very heavy rain.
I'd be happier if we can get some significant height rises over greenland at some point. It really helps if you want a cold spell longer than a couple of days. Either that or keep the pressure low in the med.
Still waiting for UKMO I see
It's on its way out now
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010712/UN144-21.GIF?07-21
Nothing to get excited about
JMA =Pick of the bunch tonight. I await cross model agreement on cold at 96 hours before popping the champagne.
That would be most welcome with a cold breeze setting in
On a closer note, I see that the heavy rainfall for tomorrow into Thursday is now modelled significantly further north:
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2014/01/07/basis12/ukuk/prec/14010900_0712.gif
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/01/07/basis12/ukuk/prec/14010900_0712.gif
Looks like the southern areas worst hit by flooding will escape this batch.
Also looks like the worst of tonight's rain may stay out in the channel, at least on NAE. Euro4 brings it across Kent.
GEM and JMA, the last refuge of the British cold-hunter. :o)
Originally Posted by: Rob K
528 decametre line somewhere in the English Channel.
OK. Maybe "excited" isn't the word, but "pleasing" would be about right.
Originally Posted by: some faraway beach
What would follow would be interesting also...
A bit different to the forecast on the Beeb at 18:30 Rob, I had rain over me , with some heavy bursts thrown in
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010712/UN144-21.GIF?07-21 Nothing to get excited about