Model Output Discussion 06/01/14 17:42 >>>>>· Page 10

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:17:23

Oh no if GFS, UKMO and ECMWF Models are expected to maintain Our Wet and Windy weather upto mid Range to 17th January then it still means more bad news as far as flooding is concerned- expecting more rain and more Milder or above Average Temperatures.

Activity on the Middle of Sun's disk, with a large Sunspot with many others around it and two CME's / Sun Flares erupted from it they're headed to Subpolar Sunlit Side of Earth, What effect this and the current and future Effects of this as well as the Coronal Hole HSS Streams will have on the Troposphere only time will tell, we have a big Sunspot at the Center of the Sun disk and CME's are headed for Earth as it is in Geoeffective position to directly hit Earth.

Mount Sinabung Eruption and mount Etna at times Active as well as Sakurajima on some Occasions erupting and many others in Russia as well in Action this in Conjunction with A cold Circumpolar Arctic Vortex and some waves of Stratospheric Warming affecting the Weather pattern will this be able to get us out from the Very Wet and Unsettled Weather we are seeing- from next Sunday right upto the following Thursday the NW Atlantic and Newfoundland PV low Pressure Systems are modelled to Push Mild Atlantic Weather to the UK right upto Thursday 16th January at least- A lot of Cold Siberian Arctic Vortex Low / High Pressure Airmass for Norway and Sweden etc is there - including Svalbard and parts of East Central Greenland where the Cold a High Pressure spreads it links to the Siberian Arctic High.

West to East from NW To E N Atlantic Wet and Low Pressure embedded weather is still expected to continue, what happens after we can only hope it changes- the Jetstream flow!.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Zubzero
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:18:53

#227

GFS has been down the pub all day

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010718/gfsnh-0-156.png?18

Quantum
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:24:53

#228

This run is a bit of an eye opener.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

polarwind
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:27:03

#229

with a cold easterly, holland is better placed than we are. the ecm control a case in point this evening. it would not be nearly as cold for the uk.

Originally Posted by: nickl

Amsterdam, Rotterdam or the Hague never likely to be significantly colder than the UK mainland even in an easterly.

Originally Posted by: future_is_orange

no, seriously, the control is significantly colder for holland than here. in most easterlies, the uk is the end of the line. holland is not. thats my point. and if anyone is serious that. are you seriously saying that holland will not be colder than the uk in an easterly? havent you noticed the north sea ?

also, arcus, i agree with your scenario but that isnt the case on the control.

Originally Posted by: nickl

Holland is often significantly colder than the UK in a very cold easterly. - !956, 1947 etc etc.

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Dave,Derby

nouska
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:28:24

#230

A look at the ECM ensembles for the Dutch SW coast sees the cold right to the coast with the Control showing very low dew points. The Det and the Control are so out of kilter from 168 onwards that no real guidance can be taken from them. There is still a cluster that produce easterlies from the 11th; possibility of cold in stronger and earlier.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

Rob K
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:36:15

#231

GFS has some very nice synoptics even in the mid-range. Just a shame there's not much cold air to our east! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

Still it is now looking as though some wintry stuff could be on offer by mid month. Remember when we were supposed to be writing off the whole of January? Just like the whole of December was going to be anticyclonic gloom.

Edited by user 07 January 2014 22:37:35 | Reason: Not specified

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Snowedin3
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:36:23

#232

End of the high res 18z isn't far off a massive snow event for most of the country

Dean Barnes
Finstock, Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire
160m ASL 525 Ft

jondg14
Guest

07 January 2014 22:41:59

#233

It'll all go tits up in the morning

Originally Posted by: colin46

We are a long way from anything certain so there is nothing to go tits up. However if all charts and ensembles are mild in the morning it would be against the trend for the last few days. ECM ens have gradually been getting colder and GFS is starting to catch up. Very few runs have produced a widespread freeze for the UK but coldies can start to look on with some interest finally.

yorkshirelad89
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:43:15

#234

Not surprised GFS is going towards a more easterly solution, according to UKMO the MJO could head towards a strong phase 7, however it's still early days.

Here is the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Here are the MJO composites:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

So pretty interesting, the MJO composites suggest an anticyclone nearby with an easterly influence.

Of course it's not that simple, but I think these are signals GFS is picking up on and there is a good chance we will see more runs like this over the next few days.

Fine margins of course with potential cold but the GFS is the first interesting run of the winter within 192h (except for the early December northerly that didnt materialise, lets hope it persists and the MJO goes into phase 7 and other things start falling into place.

Edited by user 07 January 2014 22:45:02 | Reason: Not specified

Hull

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:46:50

#235

End of the high res 18z isn't far off a massive snow event for most of the country

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3

General improvements across the board today but as we all know only too well, this can chop and change as we get nearer reality. Encouraging nonetheless and to end the day on a high I would like to see further improvements on the GFS ensembles too!

St. Sampson
Guernsey

Phil G
Guest

07 January 2014 22:52:22

#236

Sometimes we had too good to be true charts in FI and were disappointed as these were downgraded or vanished completely come the day. Each passing run appears to show a tweak here and there, so optimistic as time draws nearer the runs will improve further. Really looking for that cold shot of air to get caught up in the mix.

squish
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 22:57:04

#237

Looks like SW'ly gales and warm rain being replaced by SE'ly gales and cold rain down here.... 😉

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl

Gooner
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:04:12

#238

GFS has some very nice synoptics even in the mid-range. Just a shame there's not much cold air to our east! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

Still it is now looking as though some wintry stuff could be on offer by mid month. Remember when we were supposed to be writing off the whole of January? Just like the whole of December was going to be anticyclonic gloom.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

Indeed which was rather daft considering we were only 3 or 4 days into January ,some half decent charts being shown now

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:06:16

#239

End of the high res 18z isn't far off a massive snow event for most of the country

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3

Exactly , certainly one to watch

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

White Meadows
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:10:32

#240

A grim outlook for mild lovers out there this evening (are there more than one?).
The trend is towards cold for most if not all of the UK next week.

ITSY
Guest

07 January 2014 23:12:05

#241

End of the high res 18z isn't far off a massive snow event for most of the country

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Exactly , certainly one to watch

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3

Absolutely. Embarrassed to say I missed this completely. Must be bed time! Here's hoping for even more improvements overnight!

Sasa
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:14:59

#242

End of the high res 18z isn't far off a massive snow event for most of the country

Originally Posted by: ITSY

Exactly , certainly one to watch

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Absolutely. Embarrassed to say I missed this completely. Must be bed time! Here's hoping for even more improvements overnight!

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3

Would love to hear from Darren/Retron tomorrow am. This is looking good though early days yet. Darren let us know your thoughts please.

Kingston Upon Thames

cold snap
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:20:14

#243

End of the high res 18z isn't far off a massive snow event for most of the country

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Exactly , certainly one to watch

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Originally Posted by: Snowedin3

Is it time for some JFF Charts ?

c.s

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:20:19

#244

A grim outlook for mild lovers out there this evening (are there more than one?).
The trend is towards cold for most if not all of the UK next week.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

This is the first time this winter that we have seen anything decent across most of the models. In previous winters we have been led down the garden path dozens of times only for things to go pear shaped. We are a long way away from certainty at present but at least things are beginning to change for the better in terms of cold potential. 😉

St. Sampson
Guernsey

Matty H
Advanced Member

07 January 2014 23:20:31

#245

A grim outlook for mild lovers out there this evening (are there more than one?).
The trend is towards cold for most if not all of the UK next week.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Isn't this the reverse of the sort of posts you have been slating Jacko for? You can't have it both ways.

Back on topic - not sure the GFS is close to a massive snow event for most of the country. Looks miles off to me, particularly taking into account other outputs. If that op happened it may well bring snow to higher parts and Scotland, but a more wintry mix or rain to lower levels of most of England.

Personally I think late January is the key for coldies. I don't currently think there will be much in the way of snow around for many at all next week. Could change of course.

Yate, Nr Bristol
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