This certainly looks like a less frosty, though often wet and windy as well miderately above seasonal normal temperature winter Dec 2013- Jan 2013 upto at least Jan 19th 2014.
When we see this weather type, the Model Output Discussion should respect the changeable and wet at times weather, but if the rain is not very heavy that is good relief for those having flooding problems.
Ensemble Watching just more time crunching that I avoid and for me watching the same weather forecasts day in day out with minor differences run to run a la GFS and finding straws to clutch as far as looking for winter cold- well we shall treat our situation just like it treats us, that is looking more sensibly and just instead finding better stuff to do.
Winter is not in forecasts no cold snow right upto next 9 days.
But if by t144 next Friday to Monday we get some colder air into the mix maybe it is worth getting excited about but in that period the GFS UKMO and ECMWF show no cold but near average or slightly above normal temperatures particularly by night as no frost is expected after Tonight's frost in North and NE.
The Short days of January oh well, looking at thinking about days getting longer and wanting some less cold sunshine is my next best thing, though for the second wish is for cold and frosty nights and days with the lakes and ponds freezing and snow on the ground in January- but the Modles are saying it will be above normal temperatures and there will be more spells of rain and a scattering of heavy showers- I do not mind this weather as well.
Edited by user
11 January 2014 12:22:42
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Reason: Unspecified
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.