Good evening folks. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 11th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK overnight. Tomorrow sees a trough of low pressure with freshening Southerly winds move East into Western Britain with rain following, crossing most of the UK overnight and exiting the East by Monday morning to leave a showery SW flow with some places becoming dry. Another trough crosses East on Monday night with further brighter conditions for Tuesday before a deep trough on Wednesday brings a threat of widespread rain to all areas, heaviest in the South and West with the risk of a little snow on Northern hills.
GFS tonight shows a tale of two halves tonight with the first half of the output in a very unsettled mode with rain at times as areas of Low pressure stays close to or over the UK. Later in the run the Azores High makes more of an influence to the UK as it ridges closer in towards Southern Britain while maintaining an Atlantic Westerly flow with rain more confined to Northern areas.
The GFS Ensembles show a fairly ordinary January pattern made up of Atlantic based weather of both the wet variety and some of the drier variety too as High pressure steps closer in from the Azores later in the run. Some slightly colder weather is shown towards the middle of the run but looks hardly memorable.
UKMO tonight closes it's run with a Low pressure belt stretching from the NW of Britain down towards the SW of Britain with a Southerly feed of air with rain at times, heaviest in the West.
GEM also shows unsettled weather throughout this run with Low pressure feeding in from the Atlantic from a NW trajectory with some heavy rain at times and some strong winds at times too. Temperatures will be close to average overall with some colder air in the North at times sufficient to allow for snow at times on Northern hills.
NAVGEM tonight as this morning shows Low pressure further North than it's rivals with unsettled weather for all with rain at times in basically Westerly winds. Temperatures as a result would be close to or perhaps a little higher than average.
ECM tonight shows equally unsettled weather as the other models with a strong ridge developing in 10 days time on this operational model which would result in a colder and frosty interlude to start the Week 2.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a ridge of High pressure likely to be close to the UK with hints of a link with High pressure to the NE which could result in something rather drier and colder with time.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream shows the flow much weaker than has been the case for quite a while with it's flow taking it well South over Europe for a time. Later in the output the flow strengthens again and passes directly across the Atlantic and the UK through Week 2 though with a higher latitude over Europe around the Azores High.
In Summary tonight the weather remains generally unsettled and sometimes wet over the next week to 10 days. There are still signs shown that the Azores High might rescue the flooding position across the South from 10 days or so as it migrates further in towards the South of Britain later. Temperatures look like holding average values across most parts with slightly colder conditions biased towards the North at times and possibly more extensively late in the period.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset