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Rob K
11 January 2014 17:04:48

A real late 90's classic this is turning out to be. Just waiting for the 'but '47 didn't start until 23rd Jan' comment LOL. Next.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Actually, I think all the late 90's winters had hadfairly widespreadfrost/snow by this point.UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: jondg14 

Yes, most did Gavin. I have checked my records going back to 1991 and only 2006/07 had no day with lying snow in Penrith by the 10th January. This winter is turning out memorable for all the wrong reasons. Andy

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Just goes to show that the pattern this winter, so far, in allowing absolutely no cold snaps at all, is pretty unusual and extreme. You don't get many winters quite as bad as this from a cold/snow perspective, during a decade that's for sure.

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 

Still loads of time for something cold of course but it has been an extreme winter so far in that sense. Warmest winter CET on record is 6.77C (1868-69) which is beatable if we carry on like this! This winter we have 6.3C for December and 7C to date for January.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


I was starting to think the same - if this winter delivers a February like 1998 or 2002 - then the mildest winter on record will be in the bag.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That would be pretty great actually. Mr Madden might even shut up shop if he was *that* wrong!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
11 January 2014 17:10:09
The GFS 12z run, does seem to have the idea in General, and it is still showing the Elongated areas of a Low Pressure after t120hrs, the Jetstram energy on A NW SE slider low after low position for UK and Western Europe, with NE Europe under the blocking Cold High Anticyclone.

We have to check the next few days outputs from the big three GFS, UKMO and ECMWF, they like showing this sequence but I am not very confident in their outputs as the up then down Jetstream and the Location of West mid N Atlantic High and NE Europe High vs, the consistent NW and N Atlantic through the UK Spain and France connection of one Low after the other with the wavy Swinging behaviour of it - show SE tracks from the NW and some noticeable milder air as we get closer to the forecast time as far as what the UK gets with the Models showing pockets of colder air embedded in the Low's as they track SE is quite highly strange to see!.

This is becoming very odd Model Analysis and commentary!!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Gooner
11 January 2014 17:15:14


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011112/gfsnh-0-228.png?12


Very nearly pulls it off


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Didn't you say , " see you next month"

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
11 January 2014 17:20:32


 


Didn't you say , " see you next month"


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


LOL


I'm as fickle as the models sometimes


UKMO


is an improvement as well


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011112/UN144-21.GIF?11-18

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Deep Powder
11 January 2014 17:51:06



Didn't you say , " see you next month" UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


LOLUserPostedImage
I'm as fickle as the models sometimes
UKMO
is an improvement as well
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011112/UN144-21.GIF?11-18 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Enjoying your commentary Beast, glad you decided to stick it out. I must admit when I looked at the models last night I was not convinced about any form of evolution, whether it be cold, average or mild. This was because when I compared the T96 ECM and GFS charts, the difference between the 2 was huge, so I looked at T72 and even then there were significant differences.......I think jumping on any bandwagon for a prediction for our weather at plus 96hrs is incredibly difficult with the current output. I would not be surprised if cold did resurface or if storms ala Xmas manifested themselves.

IIRC last year the models showed an easterly leading up to the Jan cold spell, then dropped it completely, only to reinstate it a few days later, I maybe wrong, but I think that's what happened........

Anyway the whole time we have a blocking high at a higher latitude, something could spring up 😁 ........
Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
Rob K
11 January 2014 17:54:04
An interesting couple of tweets suggesting the emerging Siberian high/Aleutian low pattern favours disruption of the PV down the line.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/422005155203002368 

https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/422008661754396672 

Although by the time it came to pass it would be mid-late Feb...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
11 January 2014 18:01:29

Didn't you say , " see you next month" UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

LOLUserPostedImage I'm as fickle as the models sometimes UKMO is an improvement as well http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011112/UN144-21.GIF?11-18 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Enjoying your commentary Beast, glad you decided to stick it out. I must admit when I looked at the models last night I was not convinced about any form of evolution, whether it be cold, average or mild. This was because when I compared the T96 ECM and GFS charts, the difference between the 2 was huge, so I looked at T72 and even then there were significant differences.......I think jumping on any bandwagon for a prediction for our weather at plus 96hrs is incredibly difficult with the current output. I would not be surprised if cold did resurface or if storms ala Xmas manifested themselves. IIRC last year the models showed an easterly leading up to the Jan cold spell, then dropped it completely, only to reinstate it a few days later, I maybe wrong, but I think that's what happened........ Anyway the whole time we have a blocking high at a higher latitude, something could spring up 😁 ........

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


One should never rightanything off .................especially after 10 or so days of January

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
11 January 2014 18:03:56

Didn't you say , " see you next month" UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

LOLUserPostedImage I'm as fickle as the models sometimes UKMO is an improvement as well http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011112/UN144-21.GIF?11-18 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Enjoying your commentary Beast, glad you decided to stick it out. I must admit when I looked at the models last night I was not convinced about any form of evolution, whether it be cold, average or mild. This was because when I compared the T96 ECM and GFS charts, the difference between the 2 was huge, so I looked at T72 and even then there were significant differences.......I think jumping on any bandwagon for a prediction for our weather at plus 96hrs is incredibly difficult with the current output. I would not be surprised if cold did resurface or if storms ala Xmas manifested themselves. IIRC last year the models showed an easterly leading up to the Jan cold spell, then dropped it completely, only to reinstate it a few days later, I maybe wrong, but I think that's what happened........ Anyway the whole time we have a blocking high at a higher latitude, something could spring up 😁 ........

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


That ties in with my recollection as well. I seem to recall that the GFS took the longest to be convinced about a cold spell developing in mid-January last year as for a few days anyway, it kept wanting to bring back the atlantic. But slowly but surely it came round to the idea. That's the GFS for you though IMO; it often seems to overdo the altantic at this time of year.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
11 January 2014 18:04:09
https://twitter.com/wsi_energy/status/422008661754396672  Although by the time it came to pass it would be mid-late Feb...


There was a link earlier in the thread about SSW , I don't think anyone really knows what it does to the UK climate or how long it is before we see a change, at least it is something to keep an eye on

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
11 January 2014 18:27:43

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres


The 12z London GEFS show the obliteration of the mid January cold snap.  The final third of the month is looking average or mild but not very cold.  Still time for change though on that at least.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
11 January 2014 18:29:15
The UKMO 12z Outlook, is following the GFS 12z much the same way, and the Spread out Area of Low Pressure is expected to affect NW N Central to NE E Atlantic W Europe as well that includes equally with the Low Centre cross the UK then move NW to affect Iceland- and it spreads to Spain and W Central France as we'll- at t96 t120 and t144hrs.

It affects NW N Atlantic Iceland and the UK earlier as well on Sunday to Tuesday.

Next Week looks a mixed bag with ample Moderat to heavy rain and plenty of heavy showers throughout next Week.

Tomorrow Sunday later Wet and Breezy for the UK.

Colder on Monday and Tuesday, Milder in Wednesday and Thursday next week- Cooling down again by Friday next week.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
11 January 2014 18:55:02
The Consensus for Next Week having had a look at GFS, UKMO and the ECMWF Models 12z runs today I suggest this situation:

Overall Showery conditions and Cool but not too mild, not cold particularly on Wednesday right through to Friday, a few Rainy spells and plenty of heavy or me rate showers of rain.

Zonal Low pressure SE Canada NE USA but some high Pressure over there on some days, Scandy High persists for much of next a Week whole of NE Europe looks very frigidly cold W and NW Russia Low Pressure with bands of heavy snowfalls, and sow flurry showers.

West Europe and UK affected by SW winds, NW flow later in Spain, and UK low extends across Iceland and All of North Sector of N Atlantic.

E SE US and Western Mid N Atlantic Bermuda high Very much in charge- with the Gulf Strem going over it and right across UK and West NW Europe!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Ally Pally Snowman
11 January 2014 19:01:31
The easterly is back very nearly a great chart.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html 

Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
11 January 2014 19:09:22


 


Very similar to GFS op.


Ensembles less good but perhaps a case of taking the higher res op and control more seriously.

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
11 January 2014 19:21:27


Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Hungry Tiger
11 January 2014 19:45:59


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. Originally Posted by: Gooner 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent



I've often reckoned that a cold spell will materialise at some point this winter.


Indeed someone mentioned a couple of weeks back that a cold February could be on the cards.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


David M Porter
11 January 2014 19:55:42



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent



I've often reckoned that a cold spell will materialise at some point this winter.


Indeed someone mentioned a couple of weeks back that a cold February could be on the cards.


 



I seem to remember Gavin P mentioning something about February possibly being a cold month when he did one of his videos last weekend. Apparently the Korean model (can't remember what it is called!) is/was indicating something along these lines.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Jim_AFCB
11 January 2014 19:56:27

On a local note here, I have still yet to get an air frost this winter! In 2011/12 the first one was 14 Jan which was the latest in my records which go back to March 1996. That looks likely to be broken this year.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Surely you'll get a frost tonight unless you're right by the sea? Crystal clear out there at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 


 


Definitely a chance. Airport down to -1 already, but +3.2 here. I am about 3/4 of a mile inland.


 


One look at the models tonight compared with yesterday/earlier today just shows how impossible it is to get any kind of idea of what things will be like a week from now!

Jim, Bournemouth, Dorset. Home of the mighty Cherries
Bournemouth Weather Onine - Click here. 
Hungry Tiger
11 January 2014 20:29:03




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I've often reckoned that a cold spell will materialise at some point this winter.


Indeed someone mentioned a couple of weeks back that a cold February could be on the cards.


 



I seem to remember Gavin P mentioning something about February possibly being a cold month when he did one of his videos last weekend. Apparently the Korean model (can't remember what it is called!) is/was indicating something along these lines.



Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
11 January 2014 20:29:21


On a local note here, I have still yet to get an air frost this winter! In 2011/12 the first one was 14 Jan which was the latest in my records which go back to March 1996. That looks likely to be broken this year.

Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 

Surely you'll get a frost tonight unless you're right by the sea? Crystal clear out there at the moment.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Definitely a chance. Airport down to -1 already, but +3.2 here. I am about 3/4 of a mile inland.


 


One look at the models tonight compared with yesterday/earlier today just shows how impossible it is to get any kind of idea of what things will be like a week from now!


Originally Posted by: Jim_AFCB 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
11 January 2014 20:31:08

Changes in GFS.


The Azores high looks strong - but then again so does the Scandinavian high.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm


I reckon the two might link up at some point.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


GIBBY
11 January 2014 20:34:52

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 11th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm


All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK overnight. Tomorrow sees a trough of low pressure with freshening Southerly winds move East into Western Britain with rain following, crossing most of the UK overnight and exiting the East by Monday morning to leave a showery SW flow with some places becoming dry. Another trough crosses East on Monday night with further brighter conditions for Tuesday before a deep trough on Wednesday brings a threat of widespread rain to all areas, heaviest in the South and West with the risk of a little snow on Northern hills.


GFS tonight shows a tale of two halves tonight with the first half of the output in a very unsettled mode with rain at times as areas of Low pressure stays close to or over the UK. Later in the run the Azores High makes more of an influence to the UK as it ridges closer in towards Southern Britain while maintaining an Atlantic Westerly flow with rain more confined to Northern areas.


The GFS Ensembles show a fairly ordinary January pattern made up of Atlantic based weather of both the wet variety and some of the drier variety too as High pressure steps closer in from the Azores later in the run. Some slightly colder weather is shown towards the middle of the run but looks hardly memorable.


UKMO tonight closes it's run with a Low pressure belt stretching from the NW of Britain down towards the SW of Britain with a Southerly feed of air with rain at times, heaviest in the West.


GEM also shows unsettled weather throughout this run with Low pressure feeding in from the Atlantic from a NW trajectory with some heavy rain at times and some strong winds at times too. Temperatures will be close to average overall with some colder air in the North at times sufficient to allow for snow at times on Northern hills.


NAVGEM tonight as this morning shows Low pressure further North than it's rivals with unsettled weather for all with rain at times in basically Westerly winds. Temperatures as a result would be close to or perhaps a little higher than average.


ECM tonight shows equally unsettled weather as the other models with a strong ridge developing in 10 days time on this operational model which would result in a colder and frosty interlude to start the Week 2.


The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a ridge of High pressure likely to be close to the UK with hints of a link with High pressure to the NE which could result in something rather drier and colder with time.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif


The Jet Stream shows the flow much weaker than has been the case for quite a while with it's flow taking it well South over Europe for a time. Later in the output the flow strengthens again and passes directly across the Atlantic and the UK through Week 2 though with a higher latitude over Europe around the Azores High.


In Summary tonight the weather remains generally unsettled and sometimes wet over the next week to 10 days. There are still signs shown that the Azores High might rescue the flooding position across the South from 10 days or so as it migrates further in towards the South of Britain later. Temperatures look like holding average values across most parts with slightly colder conditions biased towards the North at times and possibly more extensively late in the period.

Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset


Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 January 2014 20:46:23



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent



I've often reckoned that a cold spell will materialise at some point this winter.


"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Matty H
11 January 2014 20:47:37



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. [url=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

]http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

[/url]
Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I've often reckoned that a cold spell will materialise at some point this winter.

UserPostedImage



I thought it was genius 😂 😉
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Gooner
11 January 2014 21:28:52




http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. Originally Posted by: llamedos 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I've often reckoned that a cold spell will materialise at some point this winter.




In these poor time for cold fans that is a quality post from HT

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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