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Saint Snow
11 January 2014 21:48:47


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html  Cold air coming back. Not a bad effort tonight from the ECM. Originally Posted by: Gooner 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html



Yep, decent enough from ECM after yesterdays disappointent



 


It's an ever-so-slight adjustment back toward the sort of synoptics we want to see - but it is only slight, and only one set of runs. There's still too much energy going north of the block on all the NWP.


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
11 January 2014 22:01:17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011112/gfsnh-10-192.png?12


Not much of a warming, but the core of cold is really displaced to the south. With the polar vortex sitting over Europe things could get interesting in a few weeks, particularly if we get renewed warming on the pacific side.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011112/gfsnh-10-360.png?12


 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
David M Porter
11 January 2014 22:18:10


Changes in GFS.


The Azores high looks strong - but then again so does the Scandinavian high.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm


I reckon the two might link up at some point.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Those that have been unfortunate enough to have been affected by the recent flooding problems would no doubt be very glad if that did happen. Many places really do need a dry spell, and soon.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
11 January 2014 22:29:09

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011118/gfsnh-0-162.png?18


The HP is closer to us on the 18z


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


11 January 2014 22:37:33
Ground frost v Air frost......? Are both triggered at 0C? or neither? Or does air pressure come into play again?
Just wondered, looking at in/out minimums at the mo.... Car windscreen has slight frost on it, yet air temp is +1.6C How do you measure a surface temperature?
Cheers
VSC
The Beast from the East
11 January 2014 22:41:07

pub run is sober tonight. utter pants!


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Quantum
11 January 2014 22:48:33


pub run is sober tonight. utter pants!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Its better than the 12Z, much better 500mb height profile, the energy is really dropping quite far south now. It almost feels like a point of unstable equlibrium, a slight push could send us into the freezer or the raging atlantic. 


With a jet like this, rule nothing out.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011118/gfsnh-5-138.png?18


Also with LP directly over the UK, some evap cooling snow events are possible. Okay, its not much but it is something. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Rob K
11 January 2014 23:39:02

Ground frost v Air frost......? Are both triggered at 0C? or neither? Or does air pressure come into play again?
Just wondered, looking at in/out minimums at the mo.... Car windscreen has slight frost on it, yet air temp is +1.6C How do you measure a surface temperature?
Cheers
VSC

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 


Air temp is measured in a screen 1.5m above the ground. Grass temp is measured with a thermometer bulb touching the blades of grass. On a clear night tonight the grass temp can be a good 5 or 6 degrees lower than the air temp. Car windscreens even colder.

The surface cools rapidly by radiating heat into space. The air is more of an insulator so cools less than the surface.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
11 January 2014 23:40:01

EC ens


http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


I think these are colder than the 00z


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Karl Guille
11 January 2014 23:44:31

EC ens
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html 
I think these are colder than the 00z

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



That's because they are! Have you looked at the GFS 18z Control yet?? 😉

St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
11 January 2014 23:53:38

EC ens http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html  I think these are colder than the 00z

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

That's because they are! Have you looked at the GFS 18z Control yet?? 😉

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Perturbation 5 would do fine as well. But sadly in a minority


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-5-1-300.png?18


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
12 January 2014 00:08:01


Changes in GFS.


The Azores high looks strong - but then again so does the Scandinavian high.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm


I reckon the two might link up at some point.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 



That's be pants. Maybe the SE finding themselves in a cooler flow, but warm uppers from the west over the majority of the country. I hate the Azores High - never makes itself useful in the summer, is spoiler supreme in the winter



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gooner
12 January 2014 00:20:40

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-216.png?18


Control gives us a sniff of 'that' Easterly


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
12 January 2014 00:26:26
Ahem, wow go hum here I come.

There are cold Temperatures of high above Ground temps at 35-40,000ft 500hPa level most of the time for 12 days of January coming from Today, of -30 to -35 deg. C at MSLP 500hPa charts GFS 18z, for much of the UK.

And so are T850 hPa level temperatures good at range from 5 above to Zero and down to -5 at t850 hPa.

The 18z GFS has plenty of Very wet and at times windy and cold conditions, Low Pressure and Organized Trofs etc Heavy Sleety Showers and Hill Snow as we'll, Winds either westerly or at times Colder NW direction through to 19-21 January from now.

The mild members might need to pay attention to suggested predictions of a January CET slightly below the January Average for much of the UK.

I hope next couple of days this place is more excited in predicting better winter weather and please can we get some optimistic posters on here!.
I am not calling off winter Jan Feb Mar 2014 yet.

More worshippers of winter needed.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
UncleAlbert
12 January 2014 01:04:45

At 240hrs on the 1200 ECM the behaviour of the vortex is interesting.  I was expecting the lobe and associated LP centre in the Newfoundland region at 216hrs to be thrown out towards Iceland at 240hrs or beyond. Instead it keeps really tight into the Greenland vortex and is being pulled back Northwards.  With the heights generally falling to the North of Canada this could pull the centre of gravity back towards Baffin Island.  A long way ahead but if we are looking for trends that would assist the block. So that may be one to watch.... if it gets that far.  For comparison at the same time scale, the 1800 GFS shows the progression I was expecting.  IMO this may well be the crunch time for the rest of January for cold continental v zonal westerly.

12 January 2014 01:08:16

Ground frost v Air frost......? Are both triggered at 0C? or neither? Or does air pressure come into play again?
Just wondered, looking at in/out minimums at the mo.... Car windscreen has slight frost on it, yet air temp is +1.6C How do you measure a surface temperature?
Cheers
VSC

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Air temp is measured in a screen 1.5m above the ground. Grass temp is measured with a thermometer bulb touching the blades of grass. On a clear night tonight the grass temp can be a good 5 or 6 degrees lower than the air temp. Car windscreens even colder.

The surface cools rapidly by radiating heat into space. The air is more of an insulator so cools less than the surface.

Originally Posted by: VIRTUAL STORMCHASER 



Thanks, my temp sensor is approx 2 metres off the ground, (not screened yet) so, its quite likely that with an air temp of +1.6C the ground/car windscreen/other solid object that has surface area could easily be 2, 3, 4 maybe 5C lower...

Note to oneself, get ground/surface temp sensor/thermometer.

Cheers
VSC
Whether Idle
12 January 2014 07:54:26

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=348&y=162&run=0&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1


 


The ensemnles for Kent show a fall in pressure next week and asssociated rain (though how much??), thenceforawrd it looks like pressure will rise towards the end of the month with high pressure to the south and lower prerssure to the NW.  The Met O seems to be spot on this year.  Temperatures look to be far from cold, rather average or mild.  After last winter (which seemed to last til early June) I am fine with the above.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
roger63
12 January 2014 08:17:44

Ahem, wow go hum here I come. There are cold Temperatures of high above Ground temps at 35-40,000ft 500hPa level most of the time for 12 days of January coming from Today, of -30 to -35 deg. C at MSLP 500hPa charts GFS 18z, for much of the UK. And so are T850 hPa level temperatures good at range from 5 above to Zero and down to -5 at t850 hPa. The 18z GFS has plenty of Very wet and at times windy and cold conditions, Low Pressure and Organized Trofs etc Heavy Sleety Showers and Hill Snow as we'll, Winds either westerly or at times Colder NW direction through to 19-21 January from now. The mild members might need to pay attention to suggested predictions of a January CET slightly below the January Average for much of the UK. I hope next couple of days this place is more excited in predicting better winter weather and please can we get some optimistic posters on here!. I am not calling off winter Jan Feb Mar 2014 yet. More worshippers of winter needed.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


Not a very optimisticpost this morning.All models show the formation ofa Scandi hP by 96h ie reliable time frame.The poroblem is that the HP is now centred futher east (eg METO) towrds Finalnd and north Russia as opposed to Norway and Sweden.


The consequence is that no model operational runs now show any easterly flow arriving over the UK.the Atlantic rules.


Even the GEFS 0h has ony a couple of ens bringing in an easterly.If you are looking for a straw the ENS show THE LP in a variety of positions ,with the easterly flow not far away so a small shift to a less  progressiveness Atlantic could let in an easterly if only briefly.

Retron
12 January 2014 08:36:48
0z ECM ensembles - the first for some time which show no members with ice days.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/f1i53t.jpg 

Last night's 12z for comparison:

http://oi44.tinypic.com/be7z2f.jpg 

Note as well an upgrade in mildness for Wednesday; yesterday there were ~12% of runs showing 10C, whereas now the median is 10C!

Not very good viewing for coldies this morning.
Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
12 January 2014 08:56:16

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011200/gfsnh-0-348.png?0


A glimmer of hope into deep FI


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
12 January 2014 08:59:25

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


seems to be agreement out to the 18th then some uncertainty


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


sriram
12 January 2014 09:11:42
I think it is a good idea for people to view Gavin Partidge's excellent historic section of years gone by - especially the classic winters

On the face of it we are not a million miles away from a severe cold spell - the scandy high is in place but we just cannot tap into it as the Atlantic is too strong

It's rapidly becoming a winter of close but not close enough
Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
JACKO4EVER
12 January 2014 09:22:56

Morning all. A definate swing in the Ens towards a milder solution now, the phantom easterly all but gone. Thing is though, where do things go from here? I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some attempt at a HP link up between the Scandi block and the Azores HP, quite possibly dragging the Scandi Southwards, with resulting enforcement of zonality with time. Thats conjecture, of course, but don't rule it out. Upstream patterns just don't seem favourable to me for the Scandi to survive and prosper- though there are plenty of more seasoned model watchers out there who probably have a different view. With winter wanting to hold onto Northern America, this pattern may be in for some time yet.


Rob K
12 January 2014 09:31:20
Well the 00z GFS shows mid Atlantic blocking eventually linking across to the north in FI. certainly a quieter picture if not that cold.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Sevendust
12 January 2014 09:34:58

Well as Marcus said, the GFS operational shows something cold in deep FI but you may as well be pxssing in the wind at that distance unfortunately


The ensembles are poor as they go flat and presumably zonal with almost all members within the + to -5'C band on GEFS


The lack of any real cold members is the concern

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