Not at all it is a HUGE upgrade

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Indeed. Given the current swings we're seeing in the model output generally, I really cannot see how anyone can say that winter is over, as someone said earlier today. Things are far from settled one way or the other IMO.

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From ECM, weather appears almost coll like from 144
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif 

Pressure is low however and in the slack cooler airstream, wouldn't be surprised to see some slow moving heavy wintry showers as we go through the weekend with more in the way of snow in the heavier showers as the temp falls
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif 

Just seen the UKMO 12z run... the strangest run of all time? The main trough moves NW for no apparent reason while shortwaves swing around or dive to the SW of the UK.

ECM and JMA offer some interest tonight, having decided to develop one of the secondary lows diving to our SW, rather than keep it feeble or non-existent as UKMO and GFS do.

Given how strong the jet looks, I have been wondering why the models were showing hardly any development of the secondary features. I figured it was to do with the location relative to the jet, and the associated upper air convergence/divergence.

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This run is reflective of what the experts at the Met are saying.

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The trough disrution in location and temperature has never seemed assured so the 12z ecm is reasonable. The latter stages are a complete surprise, given the 00z suite. Its bang in line with where we were yesterday evening after the ens came out. Really strange. If the ens are like yesterday's 12z run then i have no idea what the 00z was about. Hour to wait.

I think the UKMO and ECMWF look very similar this evening, and GFS is looking much more well behaved and better organised model than them.

From Thursday to Sunday, General theme is showery bands of rain or scattered showers some with sleet as well, snow over highest hills.

The PV Low Pressure moves SE and North NW from the UK, from after next Thursday The GFS looks understandable but UKMO and the ECMWF seem to get low confidence in that period, patience is now required- watch it unfold as next week passes and we get to next Weekend, North Stolantic low pressure and NW SE oriented Areas of Low pressure in a cold pattern by Friday to Monday is possible, even GFS to some extend seems to show what the UKMO and ECMWF are showing but the pace is better on GFS than the other two they seem to lack confidence a lot.

Do not write off winter yet, the Models are coming to terms in dealing with recent last few weeks Stratospheric Warming, it could go like last year, wobble wobble and we may get proper winter weather back across N Atlantic UK and much of Europe, these current forecast charts could significantly change from next Week or last 14 days of January onwards January onwards.

The 10hPa Temperature and Pressure maps of GFS, NCEP NOAA and the ECMWF look very great and something ilike the Polar Vortex could be upon UK and Europe both show high confidence in predictions upto 240h and that been the cast for at least a fortnight now!!!..

Get out the shovels by If the Models get fixed.

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I am totally baffled withe erratic movement of the LP on ECM between 120h and 240h.It just looks totally wrong.

Agreed. Be surprised if the charts look the same as now come the time.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP covering the next 10-14 days issued on Sunday January 12th and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a very unsettled week to come with the exception of Tuesday. Low pressure is again becoming the dominant factor governing the UK weather over the coming week. It's position over the North Atlantic will push a trough across the UK tonight with rain with another one tomorrow bringing showers, these most prevalent towards the South and West where some could be heavy and thundery. Over Tuesday a ridge will bring a window of drier weather before a new active depression over the North Atlantic west of Britain pushes another set of troughs across the UK on Wednesday with some heavy rain and strong winds followed by a return to showers on Thursday. The rest of the week and into the weekend then shows the parent low filling slowly but remaining close by or over the UK with further rain at times in average temperatures and relatively light winds.

GFS then shows the second half of the run with only small changes taking place with only fundamental changes in the trajectory and motion of Low pressure areas not creating major changes at the surface with most areas continuing to see rain at times through Week 2 through a rather windier spell of West winds and temperatures never far from the seasonal average. At the very end of the run a change to colder weather is shown for a time but at that range it will be gone by tomorrow.

The GFS Ensembles show a very flat pattern with the mean for the run hugging the long term avearge mean line tonight. So from this we can deduce further unsettled weather with rain at times especially later in Week 1 with little chance if any of any cold weather in sight other than transient polar maritime air behind exiting deepressions later.

UKMO tonight shows Low pressure from Iceland linked to a broad and deep trough over the UK ensuring further rain at times over all areas with some snow at times possible over Northern hills.

GEM also shows an unsettled end to the coming week under Low pressure. Through the latter stages of it's run it shows the Jet stream moving North with depressions then taking a more Northerly trajectory pulling winds over the UK into the WSW and bringing mild and damp weather with rather less rain at times for many, especially in the South.

NAVGEM ends it's run with a cool and showery NW flow giving way to a drier and brighter phase as a ridge of High pressure moves in with some sunshine by day but with a frost or two likely at night for a time.

ECM tonight also shows an incessant unsettled spell lasting for the next 10 days with Low pressure always in control delivering rain at times and cold enough for some snow on the hills, especially later as colder air comes into the mix as Low pressure slowly exits South and East of the UK with the run closing next Wednesday with a weak ridge across the UK under cold air with some wintry showers possible towards the East.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show continuing changeable conditions with a bias towards a Westerly flow and average temperatures between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores and Eastern Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream profile over the next week or two remains lighter than recently but continuing a sine wave undulating across the Atlantic and Southern Europe through this week before it moves a little North over Europe while maintaining a generally Eastward track close to the UK in Week 2.

In Summary the models continue to programme a very unsettled spell for the period covered by the runs. Whilst not as wet or windy than conditions over Christmas and the New Year there will still be some heavy rain around at times with flooding problems remaining an issue, the rain seemingly heaviest at times over the areas of the South and West that least need it. There will be a few drier and brighter interludes between the rain events especially later where there are still a few indications that things might turn a bit colder.

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23rd and 24th January look a bit rough.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

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That chart looks a blink-and-you'll-miss-it northerly (not espcially cold), before another mammoth low on quite a northerly track topples the ridge from the AH.

I'll bow to both your better knowledges, but please explain how that set up would be in any way positive.

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Yes,  I wondered anout that as well - It might technically be an upgrade  from the previous  dross, but that  says more  about the  low level  of  chart quality (for cold) this year so far than anything else.  With the Atlantic that active, it's  difficult   not to see  the ridge being flattened in short order. 

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Yes those charts would indeed be followed by more troughs on Westerly winds and a flattening ridge ahead of it. As I have been saying for what seems an age this Winter with the Azores High as strong as it is and pressure low near Greenland it will always be an uphill struggle to get sustained cold over the UK.

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Agreed! the best we can possibly hope for is the odd couple of transitional days of cold frosty weather. This winter is a write-off!

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I agree that it's the strength & positioning of the Azores High that is wrecking our winter. I remember back in 2010 and the AH took a vacation toward SE USA. Ah, them were the days...  

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Here's this evening's GFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1623.png 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.png 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1624.png 

ECM is also in agreement some may see some of the white stuff in heavier wintry showers next weekend

So we can safely write-off the next 7 weeks then based on models runs that only go two weeks ahead at the most? Reminds me of early last summer when some were predicting another rain-fest just because June wasn't anything spectacular and the model runs (prior to the end of that month) were nothing wonderful.

A lot of assumptions being made, unnecessarily IMO.

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I am all for being an optimist but I agree with Gibby and others that there is nothing in the next 10 days remotely wintry.

The +144 across all models would bring rain not snow so I see no reason for cheer at this time.

Yesterday in Moscow the temp. was 4c which matches the January record high so even a long fetch easterly would be pants!

Best bet now is for a Euro through to sweep the mild air away east but I see nothing like that on the charts.

Andy

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EC ens have turned colder again

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Probably back to mild in the morning!

 

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Wow a few days with lows of -2c!

Excuse me if I leave the sledge in the loft for the time being...

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GFS ens look very much like a continuation of what we've had, and barely a dissenting member amongst them.

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I've a load of spiked slip-ons for going over shoes........ anyone interested!!!!

VSC

Was looking at 18z GFS, and it brought next Saturday into Sunday's Deep PV Low forwards by a day making it head SE to UK during next Friday and Saturday- and that joins the Former Low of Wednesday Thursday and Friday Midday- as the former one tend to stay put it is taken over by NW Atlantic Deep PV SE Tracking through to UK during said period- the Re Strengthened PFJ gains lot of West to SE plunging habit.

And from after it's leaving/ Departure on Monday following next Weekend the North Atlantic gets Many West to East driven by the PFJ Low's, they look set to keep that third week of January as A Wet and Windy rain and Active Strong West SW with brief Mid N Atlantic to UK rushing High with Low P West and SW winds mix in with Colder NW flow etc.

Both Below Average Temperatures and Average to Slightly above UK Jan. Min and Max Temperatures are shown by GFS 12z and 18z runs of 12th Jan. 2014, with some below average days, ranging from both 1-2 day's or Three days during the next fortnight- and one can take this well, but there is a lot of heavy rains forecasted which is not going to go down well where people's houses are being affected by the flooding.

It appears that the Jetstream is gaining strength as we are going through a 680 km/s Coronal Hole High Speed Stream that brings the North and South Polar Hemispheric North or South Lights the Aurora Borealis- these are good things for planet Earth - we are protected by the Magnetosphere, it cools and or warms and I keep looking day in day out Earth Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures and Surface Pressure- currently whole of Central W and SW Alaska, much of the Canadian Arctic and Newfoundland through Eastern N Atlantic West and NW near the UK and out to Central and NE mid and Far side ENE Europe have Anomalous Deep Low Pressure and this extends across North and NE Pacific Large PV Low's- this indicates the Dominating and Very West to Eastward moving Jetstream- and Solar Activity re: Sunspots is been quiet for 72 hours now but the CH HSS will bring fabulous Aurora Borealis - Very Cold in North and Central Canada, but Central, Southern, Eastern and Western particularly SW USA sides are considerably warming up and this has been a pattern for last 4 days and before the USA and Canada Major Cold Wave / Polar Vortex Event.

If GFS 12z and 18z is correct then 2nd Week of Jan. looks Wet and Windy to Mixed with some lesser winds and some colder as well as near average slightly above average Temp. Days, and this applies to coming week.

It looks like Very Active for the third week January with High level Zonal Flow in charge as the Jetstream picks up the energy into it from the Equator heading up mixing with Cold Air farther North- result West to East and Rossby Wave full charged.

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Not overly cold, but an interesting run from ECM this morning
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

 

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