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JACKO4EVER
12 January 2014 16:44:19

another entertaining run of cold zonality

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, good for the Scottish ski industry if it's snow your looking for. Quite a mobile run that
The Beast from the East
12 January 2014 16:46:56

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011212/gemnh-0-240.png?12


On the flip side, GEM about as bad as it can get. WInter is over if that comes off!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
12 January 2014 16:49:19

Well, if some of you are doubting a pattern change, the weather has changed here in Copenhangen. The relentless wind and rain of the last week has been replaced by Artic air today - it is decidedly colder and there looks like being a hard frost tonight. The sun made an appearance this afternoon, for the first time in a week.


Shame the UK is too far west to benefit from this nascent Scandi HP.

New world order coming.
David M Porter
12 January 2014 16:50:01


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011212/gemnh-0-240.png?12


On the flip side, GEM about as bad as it can get. WInter is over if that comes off!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Say that at your peril! We've still only in the second week of January.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
roger63
12 January 2014 16:56:44







Hi all,


Here's today's video update;


Winters That Flipped And Those That Didn't..


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Looking through the CET to find some warm January/cold February combinations.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Thanks Gav


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Although I don't think there are any warm januaries and then frigid februaries; i.e <0C CETs. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 



I think that happened in 1986.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Couldn't resist replying to this one.


January 1986 CET 3.5C


February 1986 CET -1.1C


That cannot be described as a warm January by any means really.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Try 1983 although it wasn't a frigid Feb it had a lengthy cold spell


Edit - Jan 6.7 / Feb 1.7


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Can I add 1969 Jan 6.7 Feb 1.0

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
12 January 2014 16:56:48
GFS 12z and some of UKMO / Met Office BBC London Weather Forecast Evidence based on and Take on 12z GFS run, the January CET based on fact that 500hoa Heights Low Pressure with Wet and Rainy and Pretty Chilly and Cold Weather forecasted, even adding on fact that 500 hPa temps of -30 or -35 deg. C and T850hPa Temperatures Also at from Zero and -5 to upto plus 5 and then often plunging down low as Zero deg. C and -5 or -6 deg. C at times and Winds Veering to SW and also plenty occasions of Cold NW incursions that looks very good and the GFS has the next Week or two plenty of this Weather favouring heavy rain and a tad below average day and night January Temperatures- nights less often below average by being at range of min. -2 to plus 4 deg c, during the cold Windy showers wintry sleet and snow on the hills shores along with that and Cold NW winds and what a grat change from previous GFS runs, the Track of the Low Pressure Systems much more south Across NW Central N and mid e Atlantic W NW Europe including UK and Central plus NNW Europe in General.

Well done GFS, this last few days chats on this discussion seems like the mild and dry weather camp now is tricked to believe a Continuation of Normal Avarage but windy and Deep Low pressure dominated pattern is forecasted not dry and mild but very windy average January temperatures and interesting Weather for us.

I hope this trend continues.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Hippydave
12 January 2014 17:02:02

An interesting 12z run from GFS I guess, with a half hearted attempt to have a go at Easterly number 2.


Doesn't make it of course but depending on your point of view it's either a sign of potential and that the atmospheric conditions favour HP building to our East, or it's a pointless and unlikely to verify mirage and we may as well write off winter and start rooting for a mild and dry spring


Will see if any of the ens pick up on something similar and give it a better go.


I guess if this was the start of winter rather than half way through they'd be less pessimism

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
JACKO4EVER
12 January 2014 17:14:02

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011212/gemnh-0-240.png?12 
On the flip side, GEM about as bad as it can get. WInter is over if that comes off!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Yeh, just looked. Shades of 1988-89. I remember it well!
Quantum
12 January 2014 17:18:59

Iceland low: Gee Bartlett, what do you wanna do tonight?


Bartlett: The same thing we do every night, try to TAKE OVER THE WORLD....


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
some faraway beach
12 January 2014 17:51:46


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011212/gfsnh-0-216.png?12


A cool strong NW flow


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011212/gfsnh-0-240.png?12


The LP's continue to bombard the UK


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


The weather on that 216 hrs chart would be not be welcomed by mildies. Most of England and Wales under 528 dam air:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=3


 

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
David M Porter
12 January 2014 17:51:56


An interesting 12z run from GFS I guess, with a half hearted attempt to have a go at Easterly number 2.


Doesn't make it of course but depending on your point of view it's either a sign of potential and that the atmospheric conditions favour HP building to our East, or it's a pointless and unlikely to verify mirage and we may as well write off winter and start rooting for a mild and dry spring


Will see if any of the ens pick up on something similar and give it a better go.


I guess if this was the start of winter rather than half way through they'd be less pessimism


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


There wasn't a lack of pessimism back in early December either, from what I remember- that is once the beginning of the recent stormy spell first began to appear in the model runs.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Hippydave
12 January 2014 18:14:27



An interesting 12z run from GFS I guess, with a half hearted attempt to have a go at Easterly number 2.


Doesn't make it of course but depending on your point of view it's either a sign of potential and that the atmospheric conditions favour HP building to our East, or it's a pointless and unlikely to verify mirage and we may as well write off winter and start rooting for a mild and dry spring


Will see if any of the ens pick up on something similar and give it a better go.


I guess if this was the start of winter rather than half way through they'd be less pessimism


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


There wasn't a lack of pessimism back in early December either, from what I remember- that is once the beginning of the recent stormy spell first began to appear in the model runs.


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


I do recall a fair bit of 'it'll be zonal for ever now' type of posts appearing


A quick flick through the far end of the run and at the various individual members and as you'd expect there's a few interesting charts there but no real consistency.


Enough there to suggest we're not definitely going to slide back to zonal but cold is still very much the minority option.

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
some faraway beach
12 January 2014 18:16:23

UKMO doesn't look entirely hopeless to me. At 96 hrs the Arkhangelsk high looks to be holding the UK low:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021


... which is eventually forced to gob up a bit of its energy southwards into Spain:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021


If we hadn't had such high hopes a week ago, then perhaps sequences like that would make us feel more encouraged about the possibilities.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Quantum
12 January 2014 18:26:35

ECM has an upper low really quite far south by 120h. Looks more promising than the other models at this stage. Also a very slack flow under a dying cyclone could lead to snow anyway. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
some faraway beach
12 January 2014 18:26:43

Silimilar sort of sequence to the UKMO emerging on ECM at 120 hrs, this time with the added bonus of the Scandi high poking its nose as far west as Norway:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Quantum
12 January 2014 18:30:34

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECM1-144.GIF?12-0


This is actually a pretty snowy chart if taken literally. 


Evaporative cooling will give quite disruptive and heavy snow to most parts of England. Unfortuantely synoptics like this are so easily changed, so I would guess it is highly unlikely. 


Also worth reminding people, that UKMO and ECM are the most suprior models in terms of verification stats at 144h for 500mb heights!

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
12 January 2014 18:37:22

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECM1-168.GIF?12-0


This is a very wierd chart. I don't think anything like this will ever materialise. It looks like its not entirely sure where to go with everything. It does represent a pretty huge upgrade from the 0Z zonal continuation though. Unfortunately it looks like this is going to end up going the wrong way by 192. 



Its a pity, because I think we could end up with an LP going south to the UK. But spoiler waiting west of greenland :(

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
12 January 2014 18:45:27

JMA thinking about it too:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014011212/J192-21.GIF?12-12


Clearly something has changed today on the 12z


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
12 January 2014 18:47:48

Cmon someone else comment!


SSW possible event on end of GFS 12Z


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011212/gfsnh-10-384.png?12


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
12 January 2014 18:48:59

LOL 'Q'


You you change your mind like the ................oh erm

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
12 January 2014 18:51:09


LOL 'Q'


You you change your mind like the ................oh erm


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


say what?


Is anyone going to deny this is a pretty big upgrade since this morning


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECM1-216.GIF?12-0


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gooner
12 January 2014 18:51:11

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH1-216.GIF?12-0


A wintry feel for a few here


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH0-216.GIF?12-0


Maybe this is what P Eden was talking about


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
12 January 2014 18:58:03

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH1-240.GIF?12-0


Well that run was unexpected

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


some faraway beach
12 January 2014 19:04:46


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH1-216.GIF?12-0


A wintry feel for a few here


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECH0-216.GIF?12-0


Maybe this is what P Eden was talking about


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


528 dam line somewhere in northern France, but that's not really important 9 days into the future.


What interests me is that both ECM and UKMO show how the Russo-Scandi block might be able to disrupt the UK low at a nearer timescale. After that, who knows what might happen? Not an early spring, at least.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
doctormog
12 January 2014 19:05:36


LOL 'Q'
You you change your mind like the ................oh ermUserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


say what?
Is anyone going to deny this is a pretty big upgrade since this morning
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011212/ECM1-216.GIF?12-0 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 



To be honest Q the models are somewhat all over the place in terms of consistency at the moment. Don't be surprised to see a different picture from the 18z data this evening and /or tomorrow's 00z runs.

I wouldn't like to call things beyond a day or two out. Snow is a possibility (I think albeit nothing too major) as are rain and wind. In the coming week the one thing that looks less than likely is mild zonality. Beyond that it is anyone's guess.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
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