Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP covering the next 10-14 days issued on Sunday January 12th and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a very unsettled week to come with the exception of Tuesday. Low pressure is again becoming the dominant factor governing the UK weather over the coming week. It's position over the North Atlantic will push a trough across the UK tonight with rain with another one tomorrow bringing showers, these most prevalent towards the South and West where some could be heavy and thundery. Over Tuesday a ridge will bring a window of drier weather before a new active depression over the North Atlantic west of Britain pushes another set of troughs across the UK on Wednesday with some heavy rain and strong winds followed by a return to showers on Thursday. The rest of the week and into the weekend then shows the parent low filling slowly but remaining close by or over the UK with further rain at times in average temperatures and relatively light winds.
GFS then shows the second half of the run with only small changes taking place with only fundamental changes in the trajectory and motion of Low pressure areas not creating major changes at the surface with most areas continuing to see rain at times through Week 2 through a rather windier spell of West winds and temperatures never far from the seasonal average. At the very end of the run a change to colder weather is shown for a time but at that range it will be gone by tomorrow.
The GFS Ensembles show a very flat pattern with the mean for the run hugging the long term avearge mean line tonight. So from this we can deduce further unsettled weather with rain at times especially later in Week 1 with little chance if any of any cold weather in sight other than transient polar maritime air behind exiting deepressions later.
UKMO tonight shows Low pressure from Iceland linked to a broad and deep trough over the UK ensuring further rain at times over all areas with some snow at times possible over Northern hills.
GEM also shows an unsettled end to the coming week under Low pressure. Through the latter stages of it's run it shows the Jet stream moving North with depressions then taking a more Northerly trajectory pulling winds over the UK into the WSW and bringing mild and damp weather with rather less rain at times for many, especially in the South.
NAVGEM ends it's run with a cool and showery NW flow giving way to a drier and brighter phase as a ridge of High pressure moves in with some sunshine by day but with a frost or two likely at night for a time.
ECM tonight also shows an incessant unsettled spell lasting for the next 10 days with Low pressure always in control delivering rain at times and cold enough for some snow on the hills, especially later as colder air comes into the mix as Low pressure slowly exits South and East of the UK with the run closing next Wednesday with a weak ridge across the UK under cold air with some wintry showers possible towards the East.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show continuing changeable conditions with a bias towards a Westerly flow and average temperatures between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores and Eastern Europe.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream profile over the next week or two remains lighter than recently but continuing a sine wave undulating across the Atlantic and Southern Europe through this week before it moves a little North over Europe while maintaining a generally Eastward track close to the UK in Week 2.
In Summary the models continue to programme a very unsettled spell for the period covered by the runs. Whilst not as wet or windy than conditions over Christmas and the New Year there will still be some heavy rain around at times with flooding problems remaining an issue, the rain seemingly heaviest at times over the areas of the South and West that least need it. There will be a few drier and brighter interludes between the rain events especially later where there are still a few indications that things might turn a bit colder.
Edited by user
12 January 2014 20:46:18
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset