Good morning everyone. A new week but will the weather this week look any different to recently. Well here is my take on the outputs of the NWP for the next 10-14 days issued at midnight on Monday January 13th 2014 and lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show Low pressure in the Atlantic with an unstable SW flow over the UK. A trough will move West to East through Britain today enhancing showers as it goes heaviest in the South and West. A ridge of High pressure follows tomorrow with showers restricted to the far NW as a result. Later in the day a new depression and fronts approach Western Britain and sweep East tomorrow night and Wednesday with rain and strong winds for all, heavy at times. Through Wednesday more showery weather will spread across Britain though a frontal wave across the South could delay the clearance here. The rest of the week and weekend looks very unsettled with the UK covered in relatively Low pressure with various features enhancing showers or producing longer spells of rain at times and with some snow at times on Northern hills.
GFS then moves into it's second half this morning with chilly NW winds with further rain at times and snow on hills. Later in the week the weather dries up from the SW as a stronger ridge passes over with some frost at night before milder Atlantic winds return before the end of the run with fronts bringing rain, this time more especially over Northern Britain.
The GFS Ensembles generally back up the operational model very well though if anything it delays the slight improvement illustrated in Week 2 to the very end of the period. With very average uppers across the UK throughout it looks unlikely there will be much in the way of wintry weather with rain at times likely throughout.
UKMO closes it's run with next Sunday looking unsettled with Low pressure positioned over Iceland with an open trough structure South and SE over and around the UK. As a result while there will be some dry weather especially inland the risk of rain or heavy showers is high in temperatures close to or a little below average sufficiently so for some Northern hill snow in places at times.
GEM continues the unsettled weather throughout it's later stages this morning with disturbances running ESE or East across the UK with rain events followed by sunshine and showers in brisk winds continuing right out towards the end of next week. As with the other models despite feeling chilly in the wind at times temperatures will remain close to just a fraction below average with some snow events on the higher Northern hills at times.
NAVGEM closes it's run with a Low positioned in the Southern North Sea with a chilly NW flow producing sunshine and scattered wintry showers. Looking over the horizon beyond termination of the run there seems little to stop further westerly winds and fronts to continue the unsettled and breezy pattern.
ECM shows a much colder feel next week although not remarkably so. High pressure to the SW and over Eastern Europe are trying desperately hard to link next week with the UK in the meeting ground with Low pressure troughs amalgamating and weakening in situ over the UK. There would be some rain at times and possibly sleet or snow over the hills with an Easterly flow for a day or two before slack winds in rather cold air become present later next week.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are back to it's UK trough scenario looking the bias between the members of it's ensemble group this morning with therefore the most likely prospect of a continuation of the unsettled and changeable pattern with rain at times with High pressure too far to the NE and SW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream today looks like continuing to blow somewhat weaker than of late. Nevertheless it continues to influence the UK weather as it flows East over the Atlantic and then dips SE to the South of the UK and on over Southern Europe. This maintains a UK based trough for some considerable time bisected by High pressure over Eastern Europe and the Azores.
In Summary the weather remains in an unsettled vein this morning with all models posting a lot of Low pressure based charts for the UK. As a result we can all expect further rain and showers across the UK for the next 10-14 days with only small but subtle differences in conditions day to day. Temperatures will never be overly mild and it may feel a little chilly at times in fresh breezes and temperatures close to or a fraction below average. There is the chance of some snow at times over Northern hills and if this morning's ECM operational run is to be believed this may extend to Southern hills too for a time next week. Despite this though there seems little to suggest we will be entering a anticyclonic cold spell soon so unfortunately the flooding risk though lessened continues for parts of the UK through the period of this morning's output.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset